To The Moon

AMD is the latest semiconductor company to report trouble with the PC (personal computer) market. After more than two years of pandemic-fueled spending on work-from-home equipment, the consumer is getting tapped out on desktop and laptop computers. AMD said it will miss its sales guidance for the third quarter of 2022 in dramatic fashion as a result.

Shares of AMD are in retreat on the news, but not all is hopeless. Think twice before you sell AMD stock now.

AMD's growth is slowing this year

AMD said that its Q3 2022 revenue will be about $5.6 billion, a 29% year-over-year increase but a 15% decrease compared to Q2. Management had previously forecasted $6.7 billion in sales for Q3 back in August.

The company's data center segment is still sizzling, albeit at a slower pace than before (the segment was up 83% year-over-year in Q2.) But rapidly evaporating PC demand was the culprit for the big miss. Subsequent to the last quarterly report, management said PC sales have fallen, and now the industry is taking "inventory correction actions," meaning heavy discounting to move inventory surplus.

It's a good time to be in the market for a new computer, but for AMD, PC revenue is expected to be down 40% year-over-year in Q3.

Data source: AMD.

In addition to sharply lower sales (offset by the addition of Xilinx, which now makes up the bulk of the "embedded" segment), AMD also said adjusted gross margins on product sold will also be lower at just 50%. That still represents a jump from the 48% adjusted gross margin from the same quarter in 2021, but it's nonetheless far lower than the 54% originally projected a couple of months ago.

The market knew this was coming

Before you sell AMD stock, bear in mind this isn't exactly earth-shattering news. Later in August, Nvidia provided a bleak picture of consumer-facing product sales. And in early October, Micron Technology gave the most concrete warning yet when it said PC unit sales are now expected to decline by a mid-teens percentage for full-year 2022. Clearly, the industry has deteriorated since AMD's rosy outlook from the summer.

Investors were not caught unawares. AMD stock has been dinged by over 30% since its Aug. 2 Q2 report. Sure, the stock market overall had a rough go of things, but the Nasdaq Composite Index is only down about 10% over that period.

In other words, now probably isn't the time to panic sell. The market has already discounted the likelihood AMD would miss its guidance.

The best thing to do is reassess the long-term prospects for this business. AMD is still firing away in its data center business and is getting a positive lift from its acquisition of highly profitable Xilinx early this year. And with Intel signaling it still has a long uphill battle ahead in its own recovery, AMD can continue to win semiconductor design market share in the coming years. Though there are stormy seas ahead for the chip industry overall -- especially with consumer electronics oversupply -- this is still very much a healthy place to be invested in the tech sector with lots of secular tailwinds blowing in its favor.

Investors should stay tuned for the company to provide a full quarterly update on Nov. 1.