Tesla, Ford and VW Sound the Death Knell for Driverless Car Hype

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Tesla, Ford and VW Sound the Death Knell for Driverless Car Hype

Bloomberg2022-10-27

The collapse of Argo AI and emergence of a criminal probe into self-driving claims mark a turning point.An Argo AI test vehicle in Pittsburgh.Photographer: Jared Wickerham/Argo AIThe autonomous-...

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Lavender00
·2022-10-27
If all cars on road are autonomous then AV are easier to deploy. Sending people to moon is easier just because we don't have many spaceships flying at the same time.
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- Lavender00:
  if it is mature like railway system, maybe not crowded. people can hop in hop out. unless many people like to sit in the car. [smile]
  2022-10-29
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- PageDickens:
  If driverless technology is mature, the road will become very crowded.
  2022-10-27
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- EvelynHoover:
  Interesting ideas! If so, then human exploration of the universe will become a daily ordinary thing.
  2022-10-27
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Qihui_Chong
·2022-10-27
Nice
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AlanTLK
·2022-10-27
FUD
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Within hours, Reuters reported that Tesla’s self-driving claims are under criminal investigation. A person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that Justice Department prosecutors in Washington and San Francisco have been probing statements by the electric-car company and its executives since last year.It’s difficult to come up with two more polar-opposite approaches to a mission one Ford executive said Wednesday will be harder than putting a man on the moon.Elon Musk put a target on Tesla’s back in 2016 by starting to charge thousands of dollars for what the company calls Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability. Six years later, the CEO acknowledges the system still isn’t “feature complete,” and cautions customers to expect two steps forward and one step back.By contrast, Argo CEO Bryan Salesky emphasized the need for safe and limited deployments of test vehicles and close partnerships with cities and stakeholders that its driverless cars would share the road with.Neither the scorched-earth nor the nice-guy method is working.Tesla is the subject of two defect investigations by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and headed for the first of several potential trialsover crashes blamed on Autopilot, its driver-assistance system. California accused the company in August of misleading consumers, and a Golden State resident who sued last month is proposing class-action status for his claims that Musk has been stringing the public along with perpetual promises that the company is on the cusp of perfecting the technology.Fans of the world’s richest man have gotten accustomed to frequent posts from the soon-to-be Twitter owner about new iterations of FSD beta software beaming to their vehicles. After Musktweeted recently about a next major release coming this week, one follower replied with relief, writing that he’d been hesitant to use the latest version of FSD after his Tesla veered toward an oncoming car.Ford thought when it first invested in Argo five years ago that it would be able to broadly market cars capable of going driverless in certain conditions by 2021. Now, the automaker has concluded it needs to invest in driver-assistance technology that’s more achievable in the near term. Its decision to switch gears led VW to walk away, too, according to people familiar with the matter, and Argo was unable to attract new investors.The $2.7 billion impairment recorded on its investment in Argo dragged Ford to an $827 million net loss last quarter. VW, which reports earnings on Friday, announced an almost identical injection in the startup in 2019.“The team we have at Argo has been working on what I consider to be the hardest technical problem of our time,\" said Doug Field, who Ford hired away from Apple’s car project last year. “It's harder than putting a man on the moon.”Elon Musk announcing plans in 2018 for SpaceX to fly the first private passenger around the moon.Photographer: DAVID MCNEW/AFPThis is a world away from what car and tech leaders were saying when driverless-car hype was at its peak. McKinsey predicted just three years ago that global revenue generated by autonomous vehicles could reach $1.6 trillion annually by the end of this decade. The head of General Motors-owned startup Cruise similarly talked in early 2020 of a trillion-dollar addressable market. Chris Urmson, who said while at Google that the goal was for his son to never need a driver’s license, sent out a memo to staff at his cash-strapped startup Aurora Innovation last month laying out options including cost cuts and even a potential effort to sell to Apple or Microsoft.Argo is arguably the most substantial casualty within the self-driving space to date, though it isn’t the first. San Francisco-based Zoox sold to Amazon in 2020, and Uber cut bait with its self-driving unit months later, offloading it to Aurora. Early last year, GM’s Cruise acquired Voyage, a startup that had been trying the narrow use case approach to autonomy, operating in Florida retirement communities.Bryan Salesky next to Argo AI’s autonomous test vehicles in 2018.Photographer: Justin Merriman/BloombergWhen GM reported quarterly results this week, analysts pressed Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt about the state of autonomy. He argued companies that are deploying and expanding now have game, and are distinguishing themselves from those that don’t.“We're seeing increased separation between the companies operating commercial driverless services, and those that are still stuck in the trough of disillusionment,” Vogt said. “What's happening here is that the companies with the best product have pulled ahead and are accelerating.”Time will tell just how far along GM and Cruise will get in building a viable business. The unit aiming for $1 billion revenue by 2025 lost $497 million in the most recent quarter, bringing its total deficit this year to $1.4 billion.Ford CEO Jim Farley is skeptical the industry is anywhere close. “Profitable, fully autonomous vehicles at scale are a long way off,” he said Wednesday. “And we won’t necessarily have to create that technology ourselves.”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9986977807,"gmtCreate":1666881557309,"gmtModify":1676537823516,"author":{"id":"3575693458669579","authorId":"3575693458669579","name":"Lavender00","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"If all cars on road are autonomous then AV are easier to deploy. Sending people to moon is easier just because we don't have many spaceships flying at the same time.&nbsp;","listText":"If all cars on road are autonomous then AV are easier to deploy. Sending people to moon is easier just because we don't have many spaceships flying at the same time.&nbsp;","text":"If all cars on road are autonomous then AV are easier to deploy. Sending people to moon is easier just because we don't have many spaceships flying at the same time.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986977807","repostId":2278098970,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104563693,"gmtCreate":1667015318603,"gmtModify":1667015322534,"authorId":3575693458669579,"author":{"id":3575693458669579,"authorId":3575693458669579,"name":"Lavender00","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9986977807,"type":1,"supId":104539623,"prevId":0,"content":"if it is mature like railway system, maybe not crowded. people can hop in hop out. unless many people like to sit in the car.  [smile]","text":"if it is mature like railway system, maybe not crowded. people can hop in hop out. unless many people like to sit in the car.  [smile]","html":"if it is mature like railway system, maybe not crowded. people can hop in hop out. unless many people like to sit in the car.  [smile]"},{"id":104539623,"gmtCreate":1666885947170,"gmtModify":1666885951267,"authorId":9000000000000434,"author":{"id":9000000000000434,"authorId":9000000000000434,"name":"PageDickens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c35ff83dd06ac0fd5a2fbfed0003e4","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9986977807,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"If driverless technology is mature, the road will become very crowded.","text":"If driverless technology is mature, the road will become very crowded.","html":"If driverless technology is mature, the road will become very crowded."},{"id":104539420,"gmtCreate":1666885079851,"gmtModify":1666885084226,"authorId":9000000000000591,"author":{"id":9000000000000591,"authorId":9000000000000591,"name":"EvelynHoover","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9986977807,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Interesting ideas! If so, then human exploration of the universe will become a daily ordinary thing.","text":"Interesting ideas! If so, then human exploration of the universe will become a daily ordinary thing.","html":"Interesting ideas! If so, then human exploration of the universe will become a daily ordinary thing."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9986982626,"gmtCreate":1666876868865,"gmtModify":1676537821438,"author":{"id":"3573269245307398","authorId":"3573269245307398","name":"Qihui_Chong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d96e800ebad5d60ee51506a45948bcc6","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986982626","repostId":2278098970,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9986988784,"gmtCreate":1666876666949,"gmtModify":1676537821392,"author":{"id":"4090374759889920","authorId":"4090374759889920","name":"AlanTLK","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d8c804e09823389ba56fa2f288d76d11","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"FUD","listText":"FUD","text":"FUD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986988784","repostId":2278098970,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":35,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}