谁在推特上赚了2.5亿？他是令人生畏的华尔街之狼

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谁在推特上赚了2.5亿？他是令人生畏的华尔街之狼

远川投资评论2022-11-06

卡尔·伊坎，那个三条推特消息将苹果市值推升180亿的男人。对于上市公司的CEO来说，在所有来自华尔街的电话里，他们几乎都最害怕见到同一个人的号码——卡尔·伊坎。因为他最著名的投资方式，就是从创始人或是管理层手里“夺走”公司。作为令人闻风丧胆的激进投资者，他通常会瞄准人浮于事的大公司，在业绩最稀烂的时候如幽灵般悄悄建立起自己的头寸，等到手里的股票足够多的时候，他就会出现在公司管理层面前，提出一系列...

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是龙不是虫
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X在科技制造业功成名就，反手也开始搞些脱实向虚的名堂——收购推特。与伊坎相似，马斯克性格古怪且不按常理出牌。今年3月，马斯克豪斥30亿美元拿下了推特9.2%的股份，成为最大的外部股东之余，还拿到一个董事会席位。很快马斯克为尽股东义务，公开发文：“推特粉丝最多的十个大V都不活跃了，推特是要死了吗？”除了那个在国会山被弹劾的男人，推特的确少有人像马斯克那么聒噪的用户。这条推文引得Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal不满，他立刻发私信谴责。这见不得光的操作引爆了马斯克的红线，他不仅拒绝了加入董事会的邀请，还准备以440亿的价格直接收购推特，然后把它打造成言论自由的平台。紧接着推特祭出毒丸计划（Poison Pill）：为了保住自己的控股权，向中小股东低价增发股票，稀释马斯克手中的股份，并联合大股东沙特王室增持“反马”。马斯克很快以特斯拉股票为抵押物落实了资金，但随着自家股票后院起火，到7月直接宣布：我不买了。咽不下这口气的推特管理层便把马斯克告上了法庭。这场闹剧让推特股价短短两个多月，从52美元跌到32美元。对于自诩玩的是格雷厄姆那一套的伊坎来说，这个价格就有那么点儿意思了。“我们以36~37美元的价格购买了5亿美元推特股票，这是本能反应[1]。”伊坎采访了一些律师，认为马斯克在特拉华州法庭获胜的机会很小。就算官司打赢，取消收购坐实，也不会像华尔街分析师们预测跌到20美元那么糟糕，不会比30美元低很多。伊坎吃准马斯克不会打这场没赢面的官司，仍会以54.20的价格完成交易。“就像一个拥有1000万的人，他真想拥有一台跑车，最后不会为了几件大事争吵，所以我认为他只是说：‘见鬼去吧，我不想玩了。’事实上，我不认识马斯克，但他是个聪明人，推特也是一个很棒的平台。我相信马斯克会取得成功，虽然看起来不是那样[1]。”伊坎接受采访时说道。在华尔街中，这是少数人的立场。更多数的人很难不联想到5年前马斯克将特斯拉私有化取悦前女友。但这一次，伊坎看对了。10月临近开庭，在天价且繁琐的诉讼流程面前，马斯克选择重启收购计划，还是原来的价格，还是原来的脾气。消息一出Twitter股价飙升22%至52美元，伊坎在马斯克身上套利爆赚50%，收获了2.5亿美元[3]。刚经历漫长的拉锯战，推特员工们的日子并不好过。马斯克新官上任，笑容灿烂地抱着洗手水槽闯入推特大楼，一把炒掉了之前不对付的CEO Parag Agrawal，以及CFO、法务主管等多位高管，同时安插“内线”，要求推特员工默写最近30~60天的代码，让特斯拉工程师审查，并向众人承诺：我保证不裁员75%。作为著名的CEO“猎杀者”，赌对了收购案的卡尔·伊坎，或许也能共情如此雷厉风行的马斯克。不过随着马斯克与他的伙伴们的进一步渗透，也让推特内部氛围变得诡异起来。被强制997的现任员工和被炒员工建起了无数个没有马斯克的小群，讨论着公司巨变。而马斯克则在忙着降低广告占比，将“蓝V认证”订阅费从每月4.99美元提升至19.99美元，引得了一众政商界大V不满。当野蛮人卡尔·伊坎押注了另一位野蛮人，仿佛是遇到了自己年轻的镜像。或许，也只有卡尔·伊坎知道这场并购远远不止眼前的闹剧那么简单。二、梦想家马斯克梦想建设一个纯粹的、言论自由的社交平台，为此他操起了20年前互联网老本行。在伊坎眼中，飞行是比数字更加浪漫的事儿，对于一个从皇后区走出来的书呆子来说，能够执掌一家全球性的航空公司，拥有数架飞机和一队训练有素的飞行员，简直就像做白日梦一般。30年前，与马斯克同样的跨界并购落在了伊坎身上，金融行业出身的他第一次过了一把实业瘾，却留下了一次难以挽回的后果。1985年，伊坎偷偷买下了美国环球航空1/4之一的股份，恰逢环球航空刚完成拆分，股权结构存在漏洞，包括CEO在内的管理层仅持有1.1%的股份。伊坎已兵临城下，管理层感到困惑、愤怒，决心要好好教训一下这位野蛮人。很快CEO发表公开演讲，谴责伊坎是是世界上最贪婪的人，他会为了一己私欲关闭航线、机场，解雇员工，向股东发放垃圾债券。为了更加保险，管理层寻求国会庇护，并让自己员工站在纽约的街道上，高举大字标语：阻止，卡尔·伊坎。可CEO等来的是国会议员一纸拒绝：“今年一季度，环球航空的收益是全行业最低的，过去几年公司大规模缩水，你凭什么认为国会要阻止一个有可能改善公司经营的新东家？”没在国会取得胜利的环球航空，又打起了别的算盘，寻求白衣骑士以更高的价格收购自己。没想到，白衣骑士会是一个飞天大盗——1983年迫使洲际航空自发性破产的航空大亨洛伦佐。对所有航空公司工会来说他就是邪恶的化身，本着敌人的敌人就是朋友的原则，伊坎既想得到工会的支持把洛伦佐踢出局，又想让工会在薪酬和福利方面削减20%。为了达成结盟，伊坎与工会原本定在晚上9点的谈判，他11点才现身。谈的正酣时，他回家休息洗澡，当他又进来时，工会的人疲惫不堪，而伊坎却神采飞扬。他通常在深夜进行连续六七个小时的谈判，会大侃棒球和人工授精，在对方不知所云时，又接着前面的重点讲下去。耗到最后，工会甚至同意削减26%的霸王条款。伊坎有着华尔街数一数二的谈判能力，当对手还在单线程思考问题的时候，他已经沙盘推演了十几种可能。卡尔在谈判中不会输，既是买家也是卖家，他可以向前、向后甚至往边上走，他的视线是全方位的。他用进攻性的谈判，端掉了一个又一个昏庸无度、阻碍公司发展的管理层。在工会支持下，伊坎吞下了环球航空。实现梦想后，伊坎萌生了更大的梦想，要经营好公司，扭转业绩，洗去自己绿票讹诈者的头衔，彻底转变为人们尊敬的企业家。理想很丰满，但是交易与经营之间的鸿沟，不是写个数、画张表、算个卦就能填平的。三、没有永恒的胜利从担任董事长第一天起，伊坎美好的梦想就开始崩塌。收购仅三个月，阿拉伯恐怖分子劫持了一架环球航空的大型喷气飞机；同年年末，里根总统下令对卡扎菲非法领地空袭，直接对跨大西洋航线形成暴击。在漫长的职业生涯里，伊坎第一次遇到连炒掉管理层都不能解决的问题。叠加原油价格和经济衰退等因素的影响，伊坎发现，哪怕原油只上涨一分钱，都可以导致公司利润缩减1400万美元。本是野蛮人，却要面对更残酷的现实世界。伊坎也做了与现在马斯克相似的事情，对所有部门进行裁员和削减运营费用，把空姐的工资从一年35000美元砍到12000美元，直到1987年底，公司实现盈利。但仔细斟酌这个盈利，无关伊坎的管理，而是源于他的财技：允许将宽体客机使用寿命延长，削减了4400万美元的成本；以及对休斯工具漫长的诉讼中获利5000万美元。仓皇中的卡尔·伊坎也在不知不觉中成为了自己最讨厌的管理层——他不再考虑优化长期经营的事情，转而一步一步掏空公司，变卖优质航线，直至私有化，“含泪”获利4.69亿美元。如今已经86岁的卡尔·伊坎，像绝大多数对冲基金富豪一样从纽约搬到了迈阿密。在此之前，他在曼哈顿西53街博物馆大厦顶层有一套非常著名的公寓，地面用贝聿铭为卢浮宫博物馆指定的同款石灰石铺成。奈飞创始人哈斯廷斯在这里喝过马天尼，“供应链管理大师”库克在这里吃过苹果形状的甜饼干。在纽约的日子里，卡尔·伊坎每天9点起床，在家里办公直到下午4点，然后出发前往第五大道的办公室。在那里，他每天都会经过法国古典主义画家欧内斯特的名作《弗里德兰战役》。在这场对战俄军的战斗中，拿破仑取得了决定性的胜利。但对于伊坎来说，这幅画的意义却不在于胜利。“在傲慢侵蚀了他之前，拿破仑毋庸置疑是最伟大的战略家之一，但最后他因为自大失去了一切。这是我们必须记住的事情。如果你不小心翼翼，就无法基业长青[5]。”事实上，不管是华尔街之狼，还是钢铁侠，冲入一个陌生领域，担当一名企业管理者，要面对的狂风骤雨必然不会少。马斯克从担任推特董事长第一天起，除了要改善每况愈下的经营数据以扭亏为盈，还要面对社交平台自由度的管理。在他之前，没有人造出过可回收火箭，但如何在一个立场极端化的世界里，重新做好一个社交平台？这同样没有人可以提供先例。而就像战争中的拿破仑，马斯克面对的也不再是工程问题，而是人性本身。参考资料：[1] Exclusive: Carl Icahn talks about his Twitter investment，Fortune[2]《华尔街之狼：金融之王卡尔·伊坎传》，马克·史蒂文斯[3] Carl Icahn， Others Clean Up on Musk’s Twitter About-Face，WSJ[4] Why Buffett Is Wrong on Coke，Barron's[5] Icahn:The Restless 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