美股半导体周期运行到哪里了？

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美股半导体周期运行到哪里了？

中信证券研究2022-11-08

2022Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点中短期视角，半导体行业具有典型周期属性，每次周期持续约3~4年，库存水平是判断行业股价拐点的最核心变量，历次周期中企业EPS、估值调整幅度等，亦能提供良好的基准参考。全球半导体行业当前正处于周期下行通道，我们判断行业库存水平大概率已在三季度见顶，并开始回落，股价亦有望跟随库存水平触底回升。SOX指数（费城半导体）自年初高点已累计下跌44%，调整幅度和历史...

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·2022-11-08
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14Pro/Pro max占iPhone 14系列销量比重有望从上几代产品的50%左右，提升至60%~65%的水平。理想产品组合、高端消费人群购买力，以及有利的高端手机市场竞争格局等，料将持续支撑苹果手机的短期表现；2）展望2023年，依然强劲的北美云计算市场需求，以及明年英特尔、AMD新一代服务器CPU芯片带来的换机需求，有望推动北美云厂商资本开支继续维持10%左右的增长，进而支撑全球服务器市场需求。▍市场调整：自高点股价跌幅、估值收缩、EPS预期调整，较历史下行周期底部已较为接近。半导体行业历次周期底部的股价、EPS调整幅度，以及市场触底阶段的估值水平等，是市场在底部位置的重要参考基准。自年初高点至今，SOX指数已经累计下跌44%，跌幅明显高于最近数次下行周期，仅好于科网泡沫时期（-84%），以及2008年金融危机时期（-69%）；估值层面，目前SOX PE(NTM)已跌至14X附近，正在接近2018/2019年周期底部的水平，同时从各环节代表性的企业来看，台积电（晶圆制造）、高通（IC设计）的PE（NTM）分别为10、11X，而2018年/19年周期低点分别为12、15X，同时存储芯片厂商当前PB为1.2X，亦和2018年/19年周期低点（1.0X）接近；EPS层面，今年Q2以来，美股主要半导体企业业绩一致预期开始进入向下调整通道，存储芯片领域的美光调整最为剧烈，同时英伟达、英特尔、应用材料等企业亦有明显向下调整，且三季报之后基本均有显著调整。▍本次周期：供给过剩、需求萎缩并存，股价回升斜率大概率弱于历史。最近一次具有可比性的2018/19年周期，板块下行更多源于供给过剩带来的阶段性供需结构失衡。本次下行周期亦存在供给过剩的情形，过去两年的资本开支、产能扩张情形和2017/18年较为相似，但资本开支密度更高。本次周期最明显特征在于：供给过剩同时，亦伴随需求端的快速下滑。以PC为例，预计今年全球PC销量将有接近20%的下滑，预计明年仍将是5%~10%的下滑，同时美联储货币紧缩周期，亦带来全球宏观经济、需求不确定性持续攀升。我们判断，本轮美股半导体周期库存基本筑顶，但考虑到本次下行周期中需求端的持续萎缩，美股半导体板块在股价回升阶段仍可能面临较多来自需求侧的扰动，且股价回升斜率大概率弱于2018/19年等历史可比周期。▍风险因素：全球经济超预期衰退风险；欧美通胀回落速度缓慢导致货币政策超预期收紧风险；全球地缘政治冲突导致技术、人才跨境流动困难风险；部分企业资本开支缩减缓慢导致供给出清缓慢风险；消费电子、数据中心硬件需求超预期下行风险；市场竞争加剧、企业核心技术人员流失风险等。▍投资策略：半导体行业具有典型周期属性，行业库存水平趋势变化是决定股价走势的核心变量，我们判断2022Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点，同时结合行业指数、个股自高点的股价累计跌幅、估值收缩、EPS一致预期调整幅度等，当前板块底部特征较为明显。考虑到本次全球半导体下行周期中亦伴随需求端萎缩，虽股价正在触底回升，但我们预计板块股价回升斜率大概率弱于2018/19年等历史可比周期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9987538228,"gmtCreate":1667948971264,"gmtModify":1676537987439,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987538228","repostId":2281214937,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9987664139,"gmtCreate":1667893459421,"gmtModify":1676537980793,"author":{"id":"3574114530832439","authorId":"3574114530832439","name":"Jshenglee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e6e8bb6c502b22c374afcf8bb7345e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987664139","repostId":2281214937,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104724418,"gmtCreate":1667966189670,"gmtModify":1667966205297,"authorId":3567334721242358,"author":{"id":3567334721242358,"authorId":3567334721242358,"name":"MyKhoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71f130b587a20deffeafc3a3dd2f3d5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9987664139,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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