Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets

Seekingalpha2022-12-05

Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

590

Report

Comment（73）

AlanChong
·2022-12-06
Ok
Reply
1
Report
TaiWoeiHaur
·2022-12-06
Good morning
Reply
2
Report
Verine
·2022-12-06
NIce
Reply
1
Report
Fold Replies
- Verine:
  nice
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
LongZR
·2022-12-06
Nice
Reply
4
Report
Fold Replies
- LplMichelle:
  ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
- LongZR:
  nice
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
Wlonggy
·2022-12-06
Like and comment please
Reply
7
Report
Fold Replies
- Jasonlim:
  like
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
- Wlonggy:
  Thank you
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
LY1970
·2022-12-06
Hi
Reply
7
Report
Fold Replies
- Kaiguang:
  Ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
- RoronoaZH:
  Ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
Stephen_Ong
·2022-12-06
Kk
Reply
11
Report
Fold Replies
- Candy Toh:
  b
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
- Remedy:
  Ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
phoebe0824
·2022-12-06
Like
Reply
1
Report
Fold Replies
- phoebe0824:
  ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
天天有錢賺
·2022-12-06
Ok
Reply
11
Report
Fold Replies
- Tigor:
  Ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
- Usstock:
  Ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
- 天天有錢賺:
  Cool
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
h20_mako
·2022-12-06
🤔
Reply
7
Report
Fold Replies
- MingXuan:
  ggyhg
  y
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
- h20_mako:
  👍
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
FreePrincess
·2022-12-06
Pls like
Reply
12
Report
Fold Replies
- Stephen_Ong:
  K
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
andrew123
·2022-12-06
Like
Reply
11
Report
Fold Replies
- TidusToh:
  ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
assassinyj
·2022-12-06
😂
Reply
7
Report
Fold Replies
- assassinyj:
  Haha
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
KK2021
·2022-12-06
okk
Reply
7
Report
Fold Replies
- KK2021:
  ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
YJ Lee
·2022-12-06
Ok
Reply
7
Report
Nichktan
·2022-12-06
Like
Reply
10
Report
Fold Replies
- andrew123:
  done.like back
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
- DylanT:
  done
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
- Milkgonebad:
  k
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
View more 2 comments
Koco
·2022-12-06
Nice
Reply
10
Report
Fold Replies
- Ghostwalker:
  ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
- Nichktan:
  Ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
ZhejiangKiwi
·2022-12-06
It seems that the Fed Reserve is going to focus more on tackling the inflation rather than improving the US economy.
Reply
1
Report
Fiona888
·2022-12-06
Yes
Reply
12
Report
Fold Replies
- FreePrincess:
  Ok
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
- Fiona888:
  k
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report
Sunday128
·2022-12-06
Okay
Reply
12
Report
Fold Replies
- yhl77:
  k
  2022-12-06
  Reply
  Report

Most Discussed

7x24

All

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2288034469","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","media":"Seekingalpha","content":"<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","article_id":"2288034469","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"利率和美元正在向市场发出警告信号","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9967132118,"gmtCreate":1670283575934,"gmtModify":1676538335205,"author":{"id":"4125148185432112","authorId":"4125148185432112","name":"AlanChong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4125148185432112","authorIdStr":"4125148185432112"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967132118","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967131128,"gmtCreate":1670283407764,"gmtModify":1676538334902,"author":{"id":"3563667765668803","authorId":"3563667765668803","name":"TaiWoeiHaur","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4573ecee7a4a891ace3e5566a59069d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3563667765668803","authorIdStr":"3563667765668803"},"htmlText":"Good morning&nbsp;","listText":"Good morning&nbsp;","text":"Good morning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967131128","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967198875,"gmtCreate":1670282849198,"gmtModify":1676538334654,"author":{"id":"4098528367477030","authorId":"4098528367477030","name":"Verine","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4098528367477030","authorIdStr":"4098528367477030"},"htmlText":"NIce","listText":"NIce","text":"NIce","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967198875","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105082215,"gmtCreate":1670282857887,"gmtModify":1670282870596,"authorId":4098528367477030,"author":{"id":4098528367477030,"idStr":"4098528367477030","authorId":4098528367477030,"name":"Verine","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967198875,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967199307,"gmtCreate":1670282645309,"gmtModify":1676538334564,"author":{"id":"3572305441240915","authorId":"3572305441240915","name":"LongZR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80b6c7bb6866455f69d500fddb520c7e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572305441240915","authorIdStr":"3572305441240915"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967199307","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105082317,"gmtCreate":1670283248031,"gmtModify":1670283261435,"authorId":3582025954833628,"author":{"id":3582025954833628,"idStr":"3582025954833628","authorId":3582025954833628,"name":"LplMichelle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f2fe5070ffb7507fcc119e4bce015e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967199307,"type":1,"supId":105082161,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":105082161,"gmtCreate":1670282654459,"gmtModify":1670282667169,"authorId":3572305441240915,"author":{"id":3572305441240915,"idStr":"3572305441240915","authorId":3572305441240915,"name":"LongZR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80b6c7bb6866455f69d500fddb520c7e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967199307,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967105550,"gmtCreate":1670282299270,"gmtModify":1676538334464,"author":{"id":"3570795646512728","authorId":"3570795646512728","name":"Wlonggy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e13852042b178595067783df9fc42cc1","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570795646512728","authorIdStr":"3570795646512728"},"htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967105550","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105082290,"gmtCreate":1670283134085,"gmtModify":1670283147109,"authorId":3583013291377509,"author":{"id":3583013291377509,"idStr":"3583013291377509","authorId":3583013291377509,"name":"Jasonlim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267c1a2f725df0fb1a5215f427359d1e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967105550,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like","text":"like","html":"like"},{"id":105082074,"gmtCreate":1670282305737,"gmtModify":1670282318965,"authorId":3570795646512728,"author":{"id":3570795646512728,"idStr":"3570795646512728","authorId":3570795646512728,"name":"Wlonggy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e13852042b178595067783df9fc42cc1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967105550,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Thank you","text":"Thank you","html":"Thank you"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967108524,"gmtCreate":1670282058169,"gmtModify":1676538334376,"author":{"id":"3581643786644012","authorId":"3581643786644012","name":"LY1970","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99deb9932439b87c6072806b53ff4f0b","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581643786644012","authorIdStr":"3581643786644012"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967108524","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105082097,"gmtCreate":1670282427468,"gmtModify":1670282441154,"authorId":3582943709813842,"author":{"id":3582943709813842,"idStr":"3582943709813842","authorId":3582943709813842,"name":"Kaiguang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382c83a035b564ab3fc77b616a769c9f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.27","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967108524,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":105082028,"gmtCreate":1670282132688,"gmtModify":1670282145658,"authorId":3574212658666655,"author":{"id":3574212658666655,"idStr":"3574212658666655","authorId":3574212658666655,"name":"RoronoaZH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6027524e05252ce50f33bd07092df954","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.22","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967108524,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967109151,"gmtCreate":1670281754574,"gmtModify":1676538334281,"author":{"id":"3574855311502838","authorId":"3574855311502838","name":"Stephen_Ong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6007ebee17e54499c7c6f8d071e5d0fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574855311502838","authorIdStr":"3574855311502838"},"htmlText":"Kk","listText":"Kk","text":"Kk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967109151","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105082190,"gmtCreate":1670282718556,"gmtModify":1670282731399,"authorId":4127125158470862,"author":{"id":4127125158470862,"idStr":"4127125158470862","authorId":4127125158470862,"name":"Candy Toh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3d911569f777c66ccd73ec88cda00d3","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967109151,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"b","text":"b","html":"b"},{"id":105082080,"gmtCreate":1670282347219,"gmtModify":1670282360056,"authorId":3581759751571815,"author":{"id":3581759751571815,"idStr":"3581759751571815","authorId":3581759751571815,"name":"Remedy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ee44c4275133fc0f9b0a167e321a09e","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.13","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967109151,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967109081,"gmtCreate":1670281736143,"gmtModify":1676538334273,"author":{"id":"3586753455276526","authorId":"3586753455276526","name":"phoebe0824","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3ffd3227e01caff51b98d87fb8efd1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586753455276526","authorIdStr":"3586753455276526"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967109081","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105081944,"gmtCreate":1670281744673,"gmtModify":1670281757399,"authorId":3586753455276526,"author":{"id":3586753455276526,"idStr":"3586753455276526","authorId":3586753455276526,"name":"phoebe0824","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3ffd3227e01caff51b98d87fb8efd1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967109081,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967100942,"gmtCreate":1670281689386,"gmtModify":1676538334224,"author":{"id":"3569157961325264","authorId":"3569157961325264","name":"天天有錢賺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87d6821c87a3f5345fd3b39e87a3710","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569157961325264","authorIdStr":"3569157961325264"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967100942","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105082065,"gmtCreate":1670282273235,"gmtModify":1670282286891,"authorId":3576205711622421,"author":{"id":3576205711622421,"idStr":"3576205711622421","authorId":3576205711622421,"name":"Tigor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d0d1df7e56518091a1d5b91db7fd0df","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967100942,"type":1,"supId":105081931,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":105082036,"gmtCreate":1670282166077,"gmtModify":1670282179542,"authorId":3575004256568205,"author":{"id":3575004256568205,"idStr":"3575004256568205","authorId":3575004256568205,"name":"Usstock","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43b8e5c8e49f46be12ca1c15768482a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967100942,"type":1,"supId":105081931,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":105081931,"gmtCreate":1670281695029,"gmtModify":1670281708106,"authorId":3569157961325264,"author":{"id":3569157961325264,"idStr":"3569157961325264","authorId":3569157961325264,"name":"天天有錢賺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87d6821c87a3f5345fd3b39e87a3710","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967100942,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Cool","text":"Cool","html":"Cool"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967377537,"gmtCreate":1670281669230,"gmtModify":1676538334210,"author":{"id":"3585385530619181","authorId":"3585385530619181","name":"h20_mako","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/815dd8430435288774e9be0c03637f83","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585385530619181","authorIdStr":"3585385530619181"},"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967377537","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105082150,"gmtCreate":1670282588780,"gmtModify":1670282602742,"authorId":3568776369893575,"author":{"id":3568776369893575,"idStr":"3568776369893575","authorId":3568776369893575,"name":"MingXuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6843a33a5048452e1f1380ec02671e9","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.61%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967377537,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ggyhg \ny","text":"ggyhg \ny","html":"ggyhg \ny"},{"id":105081926,"gmtCreate":1670281679511,"gmtModify":1670281692620,"authorId":3585385530619181,"author":{"id":3585385530619181,"idStr":"3585385530619181","authorId":3585385530619181,"name":"h20_mako","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/815dd8430435288774e9be0c03637f83","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967377537,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967371002,"gmtCreate":1670281155007,"gmtModify":1676538334008,"author":{"id":"3582347714998199","authorId":"3582347714998199","name":"FreePrincess","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5875e48241b7c20bf1855e00a4224eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582347714998199","authorIdStr":"3582347714998199"},"htmlText":"Pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967371002","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105081945,"gmtCreate":1670281761348,"gmtModify":1670281774404,"authorId":3574855311502838,"author":{"id":3574855311502838,"idStr":"3574855311502838","authorId":3574855311502838,"name":"Stephen_Ong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6007ebee17e54499c7c6f8d071e5d0fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967371002,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"K","text":"K","html":"K"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967373567,"gmtCreate":1670281145259,"gmtModify":1676538334000,"author":{"id":"3576260758860416","authorId":"3576260758860416","name":"andrew123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2a1eaba26272212d42018e60e78b422","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576260758860416","authorIdStr":"3576260758860416"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967373567","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105082062,"gmtCreate":1670282267444,"gmtModify":1670282280230,"authorId":3581569695913100,"author":{"id":3581569695913100,"idStr":"3581569695913100","authorId":3581569695913100,"name":"TidusToh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4f7ebe2693c0bfd084c08be6adf145e","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967373567,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967373173,"gmtCreate":1670281095993,"gmtModify":1676538333984,"author":{"id":"3570795138700824","authorId":"3570795138700824","name":"assassinyj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5c10786bc09238ddcb1c4b89e9cfa6e","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3570795138700824","authorIdStr":"3570795138700824"},"htmlText":"😂&nbsp;","listText":"😂&nbsp;","text":"😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967373173","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105081788,"gmtCreate":1670281105472,"gmtModify":1670281118697,"authorId":3570795138700824,"author":{"id":3570795138700824,"idStr":"3570795138700824","authorId":3570795138700824,"name":"assassinyj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5c10786bc09238ddcb1c4b89e9cfa6e","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.58%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967373173,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Haha","text":"Haha","html":"Haha"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967373029,"gmtCreate":1670281074162,"gmtModify":1676538333978,"author":{"id":"3575143606799200","authorId":"3575143606799200","name":"KK2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e57decb2950e37ceb12176c97c9be2c4","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3575143606799200","authorIdStr":"3575143606799200"},"htmlText":"okk","listText":"okk","text":"okk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967373029","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105081780,"gmtCreate":1670281081330,"gmtModify":1670281091126,"authorId":3575143606799200,"author":{"id":3575143606799200,"idStr":"3575143606799200","authorId":3575143606799200,"name":"KK2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e57decb2950e37ceb12176c97c9be2c4","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.57%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967373029,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967344225,"gmtCreate":1670280766167,"gmtModify":1676538333875,"author":{"id":"4108816210230400","authorId":"4108816210230400","name":"YJ Lee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4108816210230400","authorIdStr":"4108816210230400"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967344225","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967348206,"gmtCreate":1670280235105,"gmtModify":1676538333756,"author":{"id":"3567067978989911","authorId":"3567067978989911","name":"Nichktan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a93daf14236dfaeabaf3ea0b82fe4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567067978989911","authorIdStr":"3567067978989911"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967348206","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105081793,"gmtCreate":1670281157115,"gmtModify":1670281170361,"authorId":3576260758860416,"author":{"id":3576260758860416,"idStr":"3576260758860416","authorId":3576260758860416,"name":"andrew123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2a1eaba26272212d42018e60e78b422","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967348206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done.like back","text":"done.like back","html":"done.like back"},{"id":105081771,"gmtCreate":1670281013775,"gmtModify":1670281027289,"authorId":3582541483650512,"author":{"id":3582541483650512,"idStr":"3582541483650512","authorId":3582541483650512,"name":"DylanT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967348206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done","text":"done","html":"done"},{"id":105081720,"gmtCreate":1670280822404,"gmtModify":1670280835380,"authorId":3576484544353713,"author":{"id":3576484544353713,"idStr":"3576484544353713","authorId":3576484544353713,"name":"Milkgonebad","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13596b6d0ccd5ec5f1323ca987d7ae85","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.54%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967348206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"k","text":"k","html":"k"},{"id":105081680,"gmtCreate":1670280561110,"gmtModify":1670280574381,"authorId":3570667103076911,"author":{"id":3570667103076911,"idStr":"3570667103076911","authorId":3570667103076911,"name":"Lewis1983","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099e9d25c1e6a93e2189500df30fc185","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967348206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":105081673,"gmtCreate":1670280519616,"gmtModify":1670280532570,"authorId":3578259981610721,"author":{"id":3578259981610721,"idStr":"3578259981610721","authorId":3578259981610721,"name":"bluewave","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e71f1454119ff144295c97018b0ca47","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"80.76%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967348206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967343422,"gmtCreate":1670279976966,"gmtModify":1676538333702,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"Koco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f310ea25748d79ab649d0d2fa408202","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578040476775865","authorIdStr":"3578040476775865"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967343422","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105081712,"gmtCreate":1670280738919,"gmtModify":1670280751877,"authorId":4095988560725080,"author":{"id":4095988560725080,"idStr":"4095988560725080","authorId":4095988560725080,"name":"Ghostwalker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23573df57053ba2bfe809c087c7ce4b1","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967343422,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":105081634,"gmtCreate":1670280250220,"gmtModify":1670280263729,"authorId":3567067978989911,"author":{"id":3567067978989911,"idStr":"3567067978989911","authorId":3567067978989911,"name":"Nichktan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a93daf14236dfaeabaf3ea0b82fe4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967343422,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967343632,"gmtCreate":1670279959527,"gmtModify":1676538333696,"author":{"id":"4118059011082232","authorId":"4118059011082232","name":"ZhejiangKiwi","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b109ba50f825835c17bb800ba364160","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4118059011082232","authorIdStr":"4118059011082232"},"htmlText":"It seems that the Fed Reserve is going to focus more on tackling the inflation rather than improving the US economy.&nbsp;","listText":"It seems that the Fed Reserve is going to focus more on tackling the inflation rather than improving the US economy.&nbsp;","text":"It seems that the Fed Reserve is going to focus more on tackling the inflation rather than improving the US economy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967343632","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967343809,"gmtCreate":1670279954801,"gmtModify":1676538333688,"author":{"id":"3581675432544786","authorId":"3581675432544786","name":"Fiona888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42688ec73bb74970876cdb05131f23f7","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581675432544786","authorIdStr":"3581675432544786"},"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967343809","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105081797,"gmtCreate":1670281173613,"gmtModify":1670281186560,"authorId":3582347714998199,"author":{"id":3582347714998199,"idStr":"3582347714998199","authorId":3582347714998199,"name":"FreePrincess","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5875e48241b7c20bf1855e00a4224eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967343809,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok ","text":"Ok ","html":"Ok "},{"id":105081593,"gmtCreate":1670279959942,"gmtModify":1670279972825,"authorId":3581675432544786,"author":{"id":3581675432544786,"idStr":"3581675432544786","authorId":3581675432544786,"name":"Fiona888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42688ec73bb74970876cdb05131f23f7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967343809,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"k","text":"k","html":"k"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9967349237,"gmtCreate":1670279849829,"gmtModify":1676538333666,"author":{"id":"4099796716910130","authorId":"4099796716910130","name":"Sunday128","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2cc38fb8b7ce0ae876f3a7b6154dfe0","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099796716910130","authorIdStr":"4099796716910130"},"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967349237","repostId":2288034469,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288034469","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670254323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288034469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288034469","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of","content":"<html><head></head><body>Powell&#39;s appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&amp;P 500 following Powell&#39;s appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn&#39;t say enough to cause the market&#39;s recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn&#39;t, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e7287ef2ebde557c2c762382b6f3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month&#39;s numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&amp;P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b4ece5032dcd46b930fc970e935b00\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts&#39; estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts&#39; estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c45e0b1141d0fecf0649dd89230770d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e496080213d87b9baac15b6fab3f9aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1859642fc4382c863b8d13598ed0c511\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b267e102ea6f61e2f6db897b258239ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRates And The Dollar Are Sending Warning Signs To Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets>Seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nPowell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562212-rates-dollar-sending-warning-signs-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288034469","content_text":"Powell's appearance on Wednesday was not only jaw-dropping but raised a lot of questions. Instead of pushing back against the recent easing of financial conditions, Powell made the same comments as he did at the November FOMC meeting and even stressed caution on overtightening.This market has come to a point where anything that is not more hawkish than expected is dovish, leading to a big pop in the S&P 500 following Powell's appearance. While Powell said almost nothing new, he didn't say enough to cause the market's recent easing of financial conditions to reverse.It was shocking to hear because at every point before November 30, when financial conditions had eased too much, Powell would push back against the market. But this time, he didn't, and by not pushing back, he is telling the market he is okay with the recent easing of financial conditions.The real question is why Powell would be okay with financial conditions easing. It is the exact opposite of what he has been saying about his desire to raise rates into restrictive territory.BloombergWhat is even stranger than that is that the jobs data on Friday showed stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. But, wages rose by 0.6% month-over-month, the hottest reading since January 2022. They also increased by 5.1% year-over-year, while last month's numbers were all revised higher.Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing data was weaker than expected, suggesting the US economy is inching closer to recession. The ISM report noted that the reading of 49 indicated that the REAL GDP growth in the fourth quarter was around 0.1%.The move in the ISM report indicates that S&P 500 earnings growth could turn lower in 2023 and perhaps go negative. The relationship between the ISM manufacturing survey goes back a long time, and they, too, tend to track each other very well.BloombergThe slowing growth and higher wages suggest the recent changes in attitude from the bond market. The data suggest the economy could be very close to or is in a recession, which is likely to squeeze margins for companies and earnings. Earnings estimates do not reflect margin compression and are still pricing a lot of margin expansion.Analysts' estimates suggest that earnings in 2023 are expected to grow by around 7%, while sales are expected to rise by about 3%. Currently, analysts' estimates are pricing in margin expansion in 2023. For there to be margin expansion, costs will need to be reduced; otherwise, earnings estimates are too high and need to be slashed.BloombergCutting costs usually starts with letting workers go, and the best gauge for the unemployment rate may be the spread between the 10-year and 2-Year Treasury yield spread. In recent times the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yield tends to rise just before the unemployment rate starts to increase as the market anticipates the eventual rate-cutting cycle the Fed is about to embark on.The current inversion is the deepest it has been since the early 1980s, and it tells us that unemployment is likely to stay low for some time longer. The current yield curve inversion has even stopped falling yet.BloombergBut the yield curve inversion that has started to turn higher is the 10-year minus 2-year 18-month forward curve. This forward curve tends to lead the 10-2 year nominal curve by 6 to 12 months, and currently, that forward curve has returned to a neutral level near 0% as the nominal 10-2 yield curve is trading well below the forward curve.BloombergThe forward curve suggests that the unemployment rate may be significantly higher over the next six months as companies look to shed the rising cost of wages as the economy slows. The data from Quant-Insight shows that the biggest drive in the recent move lower in the 10-year rate is risk aversion. An indication that the market is getting much more cautious and shifting into a risk-off regime.Quant-InsightShould the dollar continue to weaken and rates continue to fall, it would suggest that risk-off is taking hold. Eventually, the equity market will catch on to the risk-off sentiment, and that bad news is, again, bad news.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105081761,"gmtCreate":1670280976853,"gmtModify":1670280989861,"authorId":3578210330936790,"author":{"id":3578210330936790,"idStr":"3578210330936790","authorId":3578210330936790,"name":"yhl77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f5d104b4f554fe3544bdd3abd635ae","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9967349237,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"k","text":"k","html":"k"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":590,"commentSize":73,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}