美联储鹰派声明后，华尔街将如何应对？

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美联储鹰派声明后，华尔街将如何应对？

智通财经网2022-12-15

对于试图衡量美联储鹰派立场程度的投资者来说，美联储周三利率决议是一个言语比行动更有分量的例子。智通财经APP获悉，当地时间12月14日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间上调50个基点到4.25%至4.5%之间，这也是美联储今年第七次加息。作为利率决议的一部分，美联储官员预计明年利率将至少再上升0.5个百分点。这足以压低美国股市，并短暂推高美国国债收益率——美联储本身可能会欢迎这种举措...

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Homini
·2022-12-15
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Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick称：“红线声明之所以引人注目，是因为它最后划了一条红线——只有利率本身，以及对全球担忧对通胀影响的轻微修正。更高的点阵图和基本不变的声明是对市场预期美联储在2023年加息见顶、暂停加息和政策转向的否定。”地平线投资公司(Horizon Investments)投资组合管理主管Zachary Hill在鲍威尔的新闻发布会之前表示:“乍一看，美联储在当地时间周三下午2点的声明是鹰派的，包括声明中围绕持续加息的措辞，以及23个点的分布。但经济预测摘要也将2024年的降息次数增加到4个，这跟市场预测非常接近，让多头验证对软着陆的定价。”道明证券(TD Securities)美国宏观策略师Oscar Munoz这样评价鲍威尔的言论:“他正在匹配点阵图现在告诉你的东西。他没有像最近那样淡化这些点。这本身就是鹰派。”基础设施资本顾问公司创始人兼首席执行官Jay Hatfield：“在新闻发布会之前，股票和债券价格的关键驱动因素是点阵图，该点阵图比联邦基金期货价格高出约25个基点。我们认为，点阵图的上升已经发出了很好的信号，因此对债券和股票市场的影响非常小。”Principal Asset Management首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示:“美联储仍然对经济衰退的可能性讳莫如深，但鉴于多数官员都认为风险倾向于下行，可以说，他们对经济前景的担忧远远超过他们愿意承认的程度。这为最近的熊市反弹敲响了丧钟。政策利率仅今年就提高了425个基点，而且还会进一步上调，明年也不会下调，所有这些信息，都将最终令市场接受美国经济衰退在所难免的现实。”Guggenheim Partners全球首席投资官Scott Minerd称：“我可以笃信的一个历史数据是，美联储总是预测错误。”AmeriVet Securities美国利率交易和策略主管Gregory Faranello:“市场已经准备挑战美联储了，”2年期收益率远低于美联储5%的政策利率目标。更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9921271257,"gmtCreate":1671075963779,"gmtModify":1676538486085,"author":{"id":"3559715451352051","authorId":"3559715451352051","name":"Homini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e545c16894850831a367fc639713baa","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Hawkish&nbsp;","listText":"Hawkish&nbsp;","text":"Hawkish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921271257","repostId":2291033349,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":623362712,"gmtCreate":1671073336238,"gmtModify":1676538485706,"author":{"id":"4102426680604660","authorId":"4102426680604660","name":"trendtrading","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ac63d0863368e2155d07ed1363172f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/623362712","repostId":2291033349,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":46,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}