Nonfarm Payrolls Report to Provide Insight Into Inflation, Fed Policy

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Nonfarm Payrolls Report to Provide Insight Into Inflation, Fed Policy

Seekingalpha2023-01-06

The nonfarm payrolls report for December will provide fresh data on exactly how tight the labor market is and what that means for inflation and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions....

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Deonc
·2023-01-06
Good sharing
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1
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V K
·2023-01-06
Pls like tyvm[Happy]
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TeslaLegend
·2023-01-06
Nice
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T202311701
·2023-01-06
O
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6
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T202311701
·2023-01-06
O
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- TeslaLegend:
  Nice
  2023-01-06
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Tiongwee
·2023-01-06
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- harry1016:
  Ok
  2023-01-06
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Victorhc88
·2023-01-06
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dIwIrma
·2023-01-06
👍
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- Princessleo:
  Yeah
  2023-01-06
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- Tiongwee:
  Ok
  2023-01-06
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- dIwIrma:
  👍
  2023-01-06
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xiaobaii
·2023-01-06
like & comment please
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- GiselleC:
  Ok
  2023-01-06
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xiaobaii
·2023-01-06
like & comment please
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- xiaobaii:
  like & comment please
  2023-01-06
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MIKEEEE
·2023-01-06
Bad in the short run? No worries, DCA in while it dips and hold for the long term.
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benalizz
·2023-01-06
Wow
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- benalizz:
  nice
  2023-01-06
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Seah CL
·2023-01-06
K
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Seah CL
·2023-01-06
K
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- Victorhc88:
  D
  2023-01-06
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Tony0623
·2023-01-06
kk
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imsomeonelse
·2023-01-06
Aiyo
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Butt3rc00ki3
·2023-01-06
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Geniex
·2023-01-06
[Happy]
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  [Happy]
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When the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, 22M jobs were lost in March and April combined. Since then, jobs growth has stayed above prepandemic levels. Total nonfarm payroll employment averaged 392K per month in 2022 through November, and 562K per month in 2021. By comparison, the average monthly job gains in the last three months of 2019 was 184K.The consensus of ~200K for December appears to be \"in line with recent trends, which has been toward gradually slowing job growth,\" said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.With unemployment staying so low, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has often pointed to the tight labor market as reason that the central bank can keep raising rates. The supply-demand balance in the labor market needs to come more in line, he has said.Frank Steemers, senior economist at The Conference Board, expects that the Fed will be looking for job growth in the range of 100K to consider labor supply-demand more balanced. The strongest sectors are likely to be leisure and hospitality, which still haven't recovered fully from the pandemic, and healthcare.The sectors that boomed during the pandemic are the most likely to exhibit weakness this month and in coming reports. Weak sectors are likely to be tech and construction, Steemers said. Pollak also pointed to the financial industry and trucking/transportation as slowing down after tremendous growth in 2021.For the headline jobs number, she expects a number in the 100K-150K range would make the Fed \"feel very comfortable,\" and \"then you would see wage growth moderation.\"And while many people concentrate on the headline number of jobs added and the unemployment rate, wage growth will be a focal point, indicating how much the tight labor market may be contributing to inflation. The consensus expects average hourly earnings to rise 5.0% on a Y/Y basis vs. 5.1% in November. That had risen from 4.7% Y/Y growth in October.ZipRecruiter's Pollak would expect that the Fed is looking for 3.5%-4.0% wage growth to get the economy back to 2% inflation. This month's number will help determine whether November's wage growth increase is part of a trend or an aberration.22V Research's Gerard MacDonnell agrees that wage growth will be an important focus of Friday's report. \"We know that wage growth is currently high and we have good reasons to suspect that the Fed will squeeze the economy and take the associated recession risk until that condition is resolved,\" he wrote a note earlier this week.The Fed is \"hoping to pull off an unusual feat\" in reducing job openings without increasing the unemployment rate, Pollak said.The Conference Board expects the U.S. economy to tip into recession in the first quarter of 2023, but it should be \"short and mild,\" Steemers said. It expects unemployment to reach 4.5% by the end of the year.Steemers sees the Fed raising rate two more times this year, at 25 basis points each, the holding it steady at 4.75%-5% throughout 2023.And while a couple of Fed officials have recently said they expect to increase the policy rate to above 5%, Steemers said, \"I think they will want to be careful and not raise rates too, too high. Because maybe then the impact on the labor market will be too negative in the long term.\"SA contributor Logan Kane explains why a decent nonfarm payrolls report and inflation coming in as expected would be bad for stocks in the short run","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9959232027,"gmtCreate":1672992185869,"gmtModify":1676538767138,"author":{"id":"3569316529855154","authorId":"3569316529855154","name":"Deonc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9aa45dd2eb58357f6477dcfb99d1415","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Good sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Good sharing&nbsp;","text":"Good 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