Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple

Seeking Alpha2023-01-16

SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...

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phantom74
·2023-01-17
oiks
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1
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天天有錢賺
·2023-01-17
Good
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- 天天有錢賺:
  Ok
  2023-01-17
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J1000
·2023-01-17
K
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3
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AlanChong
·2023-01-17
Ok
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3
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chai88
·2023-01-17
Ok
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3
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blackblue
·2023-01-16
K
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7
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Jenny88888
·2023-01-16
Ok
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6
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Monkseal
·2023-01-16
"I thought the strong USD would eat away...". Looks like it was a bad call when Apple is already pricing in these factors. Yet this call punished Apple trading price which in turn hurt retail shareholders hard. This article just appears to me the author is simply correcting his own short sightedness than correcting the markets.
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- HuGang3166:
  Good
  2023-01-17
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- Ignatius Teo:
  Awesome
  2023-01-16
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- Cam20:
  [Cool]
  2023-01-16
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TC77
·2023-01-16
Time to buy?
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- Bubikhoo:
  ok
  2023-01-16
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J1000
·2023-01-16
K
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- J1000:
  K
  2023-01-16
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In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4170","symbol_name":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple","article_id":"2303353243","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303353243","pubTimestamp":1673856194,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha_fund","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. 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In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple's discretionary goods.With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntroductionI was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple's growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers' future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.CurrencyGlobal currency risks have faded, likely permanently.\"In South Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.\"I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone's pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar's strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.Data by YChartsData by YChartsAs the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple's financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan's decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I'd call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple's global operations.Macroeconomic ForecastMacroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.Conference BoardTrading EconomicsAs the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers' confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers' lowest priority.Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.Trading EconomicsAs the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.I believe consumers' willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple's products as they are mostly discretionary items.ChinaChina poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China's strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company's operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company's stock price. Further, given Beijing's sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.ValuationConsidering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple's valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.Data by YChartsThus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor's confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple's valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.SummaryI was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple's foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple's discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.This article is written by SL Investments for reference only. Please note the risks.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9956396312,"gmtCreate":1673907444336,"gmtModify":1676538900497,"author":{"id":"3570342809089528","authorId":"3570342809089528","name":"phantom74","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c87ef2af41b8696be86cceafb5b5723d","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570342809089528","authorIdStr":"3570342809089528"},"htmlText":"oiks","listText":"oiks","text":"oiks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956396312","repostId":2303353243,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2303353243","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673856194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2303353243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-16 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303353243","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likel","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I think Apple&#39;s currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.</li><li>Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple&#39;s discretionary goods.</li><li>With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple&#39;s growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers&#39; future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.</p><h2>Currency</h2><p>Global currency risks have faded, likely permanently.</p><blockquote>&#34;In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQX.AU\">South</a> Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.&#34;</blockquote><p>I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone&#39;s pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar&#39;s strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a027df5a903dab9acc6eb8e7e822a3a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08581952d5da9c52291325c1f1c9af3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple&#39;s financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.</p><p>Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.</p><p>This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.</p><p>For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan&#39;s decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I&#39;d call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple&#39;s global operations.</p><h2>Macroeconomic Forecast</h2><p>Macroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb08c8e05e74d6b3ff690c73604b53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Conference Board</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8866d79efc4f2652b8cca34616acfa07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers&#39; confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers&#39; lowest priority.</p><p>Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c04d0878f3c8859773f96f1dafdeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.</p><p>I believe consumers&#39; willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple&#39;s products as they are mostly discretionary items.</p><h2>China</h2><p>China poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China&#39;s strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company&#39;s operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company&#39;s stock price. Further, given Beijing&#39;s sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Considering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced75e14e292b2fe406cf1a3d16e20d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Thus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor&#39;s confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple&#39;s foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple&#39;s discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>SL Investments</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Bottom Could Be In For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-16 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303353243","content_text":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple's discretionary goods.With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntroductionI was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple's growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers' future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.CurrencyGlobal currency risks have faded, likely permanently.\"In South Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.\"I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone's pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar's strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.Data by YChartsData by YChartsAs the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple's financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan's decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I'd call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple's global operations.Macroeconomic ForecastMacroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.Conference BoardTrading EconomicsAs the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers' confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers' lowest priority.Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.Trading EconomicsAs the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.I believe consumers' willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple's products as they are mostly discretionary items.ChinaChina poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China's strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company's operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company's stock price. Further, given Beijing's sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.ValuationConsidering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple's valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.Data by YChartsThus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor's confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple's valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.SummaryI was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple's foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple's discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.This article is written by SL Investments for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9956398684,"gmtCreate":1673907307249,"gmtModify":1676538900465,"author":{"id":"3569157961325264","authorId":"3569157961325264","name":"天天有錢賺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87d6821c87a3f5345fd3b39e87a3710","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569157961325264","authorIdStr":"3569157961325264"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956398684","repostId":2303353243,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2303353243","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673856194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2303353243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-16 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303353243","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likel","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I think Apple&#39;s currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.</li><li>Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple&#39;s discretionary goods.</li><li>With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple&#39;s growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers&#39; future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.</p><h2>Currency</h2><p>Global currency risks have faded, likely permanently.</p><blockquote>&#34;In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQX.AU\">South</a> Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.&#34;</blockquote><p>I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone&#39;s pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar&#39;s strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a027df5a903dab9acc6eb8e7e822a3a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08581952d5da9c52291325c1f1c9af3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple&#39;s financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.</p><p>Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.</p><p>This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.</p><p>For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan&#39;s decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I&#39;d call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple&#39;s global operations.</p><h2>Macroeconomic Forecast</h2><p>Macroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb08c8e05e74d6b3ff690c73604b53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Conference Board</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8866d79efc4f2652b8cca34616acfa07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers&#39; confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers&#39; lowest priority.</p><p>Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c04d0878f3c8859773f96f1dafdeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.</p><p>I believe consumers&#39; willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple&#39;s products as they are mostly discretionary items.</p><h2>China</h2><p>China poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China&#39;s strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company&#39;s operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company&#39;s stock price. Further, given Beijing&#39;s sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Considering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced75e14e292b2fe406cf1a3d16e20d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Thus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor&#39;s confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple&#39;s foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple&#39;s discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>SL Investments</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Bottom Could Be In For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-16 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303353243","content_text":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple's discretionary goods.With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntroductionI was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple's growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers' future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.CurrencyGlobal currency risks have faded, likely permanently.\"In South Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.\"I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone's pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar's strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.Data by YChartsData by YChartsAs the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple's financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan's decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I'd call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple's global operations.Macroeconomic ForecastMacroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.Conference BoardTrading EconomicsAs the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers' confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers' lowest priority.Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.Trading EconomicsAs the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.I believe consumers' willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple's products as they are mostly discretionary items.ChinaChina poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China's strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company's operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company's stock price. Further, given Beijing's sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.ValuationConsidering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple's valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.Data by YChartsThus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor's confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple's valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.SummaryI was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple's foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple's discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.This article is written by SL Investments for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105583136,"gmtCreate":1673907313059,"gmtModify":1673907322783,"authorId":3569157961325264,"author":{"id":3569157961325264,"idStr":"3569157961325264","authorId":3569157961325264,"name":"天天有錢賺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87d6821c87a3f5345fd3b39e87a3710","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9956398684,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Ok</u>","text":"<u>Ok</u>","html":"<u>Ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9956307701,"gmtCreate":1673906127203,"gmtModify":1676538900330,"author":{"id":"3563859164285775","authorId":"3563859164285775","name":"J1000","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8ecd9c9f9155b597bf186803ea57192","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563859164285775","authorIdStr":"3563859164285775"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956307701","repostId":2303353243,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2303353243","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673856194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2303353243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-16 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303353243","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likel","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I think Apple&#39;s currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.</li><li>Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple&#39;s discretionary goods.</li><li>With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple&#39;s growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers&#39; future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.</p><h2>Currency</h2><p>Global currency risks have faded, likely permanently.</p><blockquote>&#34;In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQX.AU\">South</a> Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.&#34;</blockquote><p>I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone&#39;s pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar&#39;s strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a027df5a903dab9acc6eb8e7e822a3a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08581952d5da9c52291325c1f1c9af3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple&#39;s financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.</p><p>Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.</p><p>This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.</p><p>For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan&#39;s decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I&#39;d call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple&#39;s global operations.</p><h2>Macroeconomic Forecast</h2><p>Macroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb08c8e05e74d6b3ff690c73604b53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Conference Board</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8866d79efc4f2652b8cca34616acfa07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers&#39; confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers&#39; lowest priority.</p><p>Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c04d0878f3c8859773f96f1dafdeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.</p><p>I believe consumers&#39; willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple&#39;s products as they are mostly discretionary items.</p><h2>China</h2><p>China poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China&#39;s strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company&#39;s operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company&#39;s stock price. Further, given Beijing&#39;s sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Considering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced75e14e292b2fe406cf1a3d16e20d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Thus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor&#39;s confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple&#39;s foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple&#39;s discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>SL Investments</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Bottom Could Be In For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-16 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303353243","content_text":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple's discretionary goods.With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntroductionI was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple's growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers' future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.CurrencyGlobal currency risks have faded, likely permanently.\"In South Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.\"I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone's pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar's strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.Data by YChartsData by YChartsAs the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple's financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan's decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I'd call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple's global operations.Macroeconomic ForecastMacroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.Conference BoardTrading EconomicsAs the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers' confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers' lowest priority.Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.Trading EconomicsAs the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.I believe consumers' willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple's products as they are mostly discretionary items.ChinaChina poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China's strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company's operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company's stock price. Further, given Beijing's sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.ValuationConsidering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple's valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.Data by YChartsThus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor's confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple's valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.SummaryI was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple's foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple's discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.This article is written by SL Investments for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9956301268,"gmtCreate":1673903927055,"gmtModify":1676538900150,"author":{"id":"4125148185432112","authorId":"4125148185432112","name":"AlanChong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4125148185432112","authorIdStr":"4125148185432112"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956301268","repostId":2303353243,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2303353243","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673856194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2303353243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-16 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303353243","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likel","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I think Apple&#39;s currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.</li><li>Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple&#39;s discretionary goods.</li><li>With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple&#39;s growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers&#39; future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.</p><h2>Currency</h2><p>Global currency risks have faded, likely permanently.</p><blockquote>&#34;In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQX.AU\">South</a> Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.&#34;</blockquote><p>I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone&#39;s pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar&#39;s strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a027df5a903dab9acc6eb8e7e822a3a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08581952d5da9c52291325c1f1c9af3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple&#39;s financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.</p><p>Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.</p><p>This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.</p><p>For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan&#39;s decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I&#39;d call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple&#39;s global operations.</p><h2>Macroeconomic Forecast</h2><p>Macroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb08c8e05e74d6b3ff690c73604b53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Conference Board</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8866d79efc4f2652b8cca34616acfa07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers&#39; confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers&#39; lowest priority.</p><p>Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c04d0878f3c8859773f96f1dafdeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.</p><p>I believe consumers&#39; willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple&#39;s products as they are mostly discretionary items.</p><h2>China</h2><p>China poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China&#39;s strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company&#39;s operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company&#39;s stock price. Further, given Beijing&#39;s sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Considering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced75e14e292b2fe406cf1a3d16e20d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Thus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor&#39;s confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple&#39;s foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple&#39;s discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>SL Investments</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Bottom Could Be In For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-16 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303353243","content_text":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple's discretionary goods.With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntroductionI was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple's growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers' future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.CurrencyGlobal currency risks have faded, likely permanently.\"In South Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.\"I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone's pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar's strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.Data by YChartsData by YChartsAs the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple's financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan's decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I'd call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple's global operations.Macroeconomic ForecastMacroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.Conference BoardTrading EconomicsAs the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers' confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers' lowest priority.Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.Trading EconomicsAs the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.I believe consumers' willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple's products as they are mostly discretionary items.ChinaChina poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China's strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company's operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company's stock price. Further, given Beijing's sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.ValuationConsidering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple's valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.Data by YChartsThus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor's confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple's valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.SummaryI was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple's foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple's discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.This article is written by SL Investments for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9956309911,"gmtCreate":1673901891334,"gmtModify":1676538900085,"author":{"id":"3583047307109635","authorId":"3583047307109635","name":"chai88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/58cd61c87afd62ee9ae91c7ec7707f45","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583047307109635","authorIdStr":"3583047307109635"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956309911","repostId":2303353243,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2303353243","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673856194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2303353243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-16 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303353243","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likel","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I think Apple&#39;s currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.</li><li>Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple&#39;s discretionary goods.</li><li>With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple&#39;s growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers&#39; future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.</p><h2>Currency</h2><p>Global currency risks have faded, likely permanently.</p><blockquote>&#34;In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQX.AU\">South</a> Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.&#34;</blockquote><p>I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone&#39;s pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar&#39;s strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a027df5a903dab9acc6eb8e7e822a3a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08581952d5da9c52291325c1f1c9af3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple&#39;s financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.</p><p>Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.</p><p>This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.</p><p>For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan&#39;s decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I&#39;d call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple&#39;s global operations.</p><h2>Macroeconomic Forecast</h2><p>Macroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb08c8e05e74d6b3ff690c73604b53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Conference Board</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8866d79efc4f2652b8cca34616acfa07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers&#39; confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers&#39; lowest priority.</p><p>Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c04d0878f3c8859773f96f1dafdeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.</p><p>I believe consumers&#39; willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple&#39;s products as they are mostly discretionary items.</p><h2>China</h2><p>China poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China&#39;s strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company&#39;s operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company&#39;s stock price. Further, given Beijing&#39;s sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Considering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced75e14e292b2fe406cf1a3d16e20d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Thus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor&#39;s confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple&#39;s foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple&#39;s discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>SL Investments</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Bottom Could Be In For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-16 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303353243","content_text":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple's discretionary goods.With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntroductionI was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple's growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers' future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.CurrencyGlobal currency risks have faded, likely permanently.\"In South Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.\"I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone's pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar's strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.Data by YChartsData by YChartsAs the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple's financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan's decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I'd call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple's global operations.Macroeconomic ForecastMacroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.Conference BoardTrading EconomicsAs the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers' confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers' lowest priority.Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.Trading EconomicsAs the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.I believe consumers' willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple's products as they are mostly discretionary items.ChinaChina poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China's strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company's operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company's stock price. Further, given Beijing's sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.ValuationConsidering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple's valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.Data by YChartsThus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor's confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple's valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.SummaryI was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple's foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple's discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.This article is written by SL Investments for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9956964703,"gmtCreate":1673884387102,"gmtModify":1676538898734,"author":{"id":"3573358900781695","authorId":"3573358900781695","name":"blackblue","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/088db3d5898812613a04dc859475d4aa","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573358900781695","authorIdStr":"3573358900781695"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956964703","repostId":2303353243,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2303353243","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673856194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2303353243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-16 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303353243","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likel","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I think Apple&#39;s currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.</li><li>Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple&#39;s discretionary goods.</li><li>With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple&#39;s growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers&#39; future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.</p><h2>Currency</h2><p>Global currency risks have faded, likely permanently.</p><blockquote>&#34;In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQX.AU\">South</a> Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.&#34;</blockquote><p>I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone&#39;s pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar&#39;s strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a027df5a903dab9acc6eb8e7e822a3a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08581952d5da9c52291325c1f1c9af3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple&#39;s financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.</p><p>Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.</p><p>This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.</p><p>For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan&#39;s decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I&#39;d call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple&#39;s global operations.</p><h2>Macroeconomic Forecast</h2><p>Macroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb08c8e05e74d6b3ff690c73604b53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Conference Board</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8866d79efc4f2652b8cca34616acfa07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers&#39; confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers&#39; lowest priority.</p><p>Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c04d0878f3c8859773f96f1dafdeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.</p><p>I believe consumers&#39; willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple&#39;s products as they are mostly discretionary items.</p><h2>China</h2><p>China poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China&#39;s strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company&#39;s operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company&#39;s stock price. Further, given Beijing&#39;s sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Considering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced75e14e292b2fe406cf1a3d16e20d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Thus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor&#39;s confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple&#39;s foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple&#39;s discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>SL Investments</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Bottom Could Be In For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-16 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303353243","content_text":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple's discretionary goods.With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntroductionI was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple's growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers' future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.CurrencyGlobal currency risks have faded, likely permanently.\"In South Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.\"I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone's pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar's strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.Data by YChartsData by YChartsAs the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple's financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan's decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I'd call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple's global operations.Macroeconomic ForecastMacroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.Conference BoardTrading EconomicsAs the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers' confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers' lowest priority.Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.Trading EconomicsAs the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.I believe consumers' willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple's products as they are mostly discretionary items.ChinaChina poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China's strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company's operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company's stock price. Further, given Beijing's sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.ValuationConsidering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple's valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.Data by YChartsThus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor's confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple's valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.SummaryI was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple's foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple's discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.This article is written by SL Investments for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9956960365,"gmtCreate":1673882317557,"gmtModify":1676538898422,"author":{"id":"3583651223381792","authorId":"3583651223381792","name":"Jenny88888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1ca72f49f88af75653644150955364","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583651223381792","authorIdStr":"3583651223381792"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956960365","repostId":2303353243,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2303353243","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673856194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2303353243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-16 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303353243","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likel","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I think Apple&#39;s currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.</li><li>Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple&#39;s discretionary goods.</li><li>With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple&#39;s growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers&#39; future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.</p><h2>Currency</h2><p>Global currency risks have faded, likely permanently.</p><blockquote>&#34;In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQX.AU\">South</a> Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.&#34;</blockquote><p>I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone&#39;s pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar&#39;s strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a027df5a903dab9acc6eb8e7e822a3a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08581952d5da9c52291325c1f1c9af3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple&#39;s financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.</p><p>Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.</p><p>This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.</p><p>For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan&#39;s decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I&#39;d call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple&#39;s global operations.</p><h2>Macroeconomic Forecast</h2><p>Macroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb08c8e05e74d6b3ff690c73604b53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Conference Board</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8866d79efc4f2652b8cca34616acfa07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers&#39; confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers&#39; lowest priority.</p><p>Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c04d0878f3c8859773f96f1dafdeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.</p><p>I believe consumers&#39; willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple&#39;s products as they are mostly discretionary items.</p><h2>China</h2><p>China poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China&#39;s strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company&#39;s operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company&#39;s stock price. Further, given Beijing&#39;s sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Considering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced75e14e292b2fe406cf1a3d16e20d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Thus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor&#39;s confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple&#39;s foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple&#39;s discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>SL Investments</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Bottom Could Be In For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-16 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303353243","content_text":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple's discretionary goods.With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntroductionI was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple's growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers' future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.CurrencyGlobal currency risks have faded, likely permanently.\"In South Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.\"I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone's pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar's strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.Data by YChartsData by YChartsAs the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple's financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan's decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I'd call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple's global operations.Macroeconomic ForecastMacroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.Conference BoardTrading EconomicsAs the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers' confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers' lowest priority.Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.Trading EconomicsAs the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.I believe consumers' willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple's products as they are mostly discretionary items.ChinaChina poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China's strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company's operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company's stock price. Further, given Beijing's sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.ValuationConsidering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple's valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.Data by YChartsThus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor's confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple's valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.SummaryI was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple's foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple's discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.This article is written by SL Investments for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9956903850,"gmtCreate":1673869857470,"gmtModify":1676538896545,"author":{"id":"4087654469661740","authorId":"4087654469661740","name":"Monkseal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6adb23b3789de4a4067c75aafce84464","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4087654469661740","authorIdStr":"4087654469661740"},"htmlText":"\"I thought the strong USD would eat away...\". Looks like it was a bad call when Apple is already pricing in these factors. Yet this call punished Apple trading price which in turn hurt retail shareholders hard. This article just appears to me the author is simply correcting his own short sightedness than correcting the markets.","listText":"\"I thought the strong USD would eat away...\". Looks like it was a bad call when Apple is already pricing in these factors. Yet this call punished Apple trading price which in turn hurt retail shareholders hard. This article just appears to me the author is simply correcting his own short sightedness than correcting the markets.","text":"\"I thought the strong USD would eat away...\". Looks like it was a bad call when Apple is already pricing in these factors. Yet this call punished Apple trading price which in turn hurt retail shareholders hard. This article just appears to me the author is simply correcting his own short sightedness than correcting the markets.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":25,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956903850","repostId":2303353243,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2303353243","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673856194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2303353243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-16 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303353243","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likel","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I think Apple&#39;s currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.</li><li>Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple&#39;s discretionary goods.</li><li>With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple&#39;s growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers&#39; future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.</p><h2>Currency</h2><p>Global currency risks have faded, likely permanently.</p><blockquote>&#34;In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQX.AU\">South</a> Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.&#34;</blockquote><p>I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone&#39;s pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar&#39;s strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a027df5a903dab9acc6eb8e7e822a3a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08581952d5da9c52291325c1f1c9af3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple&#39;s financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.</p><p>Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.</p><p>This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.</p><p>For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan&#39;s decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I&#39;d call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple&#39;s global operations.</p><h2>Macroeconomic Forecast</h2><p>Macroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb08c8e05e74d6b3ff690c73604b53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Conference Board</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8866d79efc4f2652b8cca34616acfa07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers&#39; confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers&#39; lowest priority.</p><p>Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c04d0878f3c8859773f96f1dafdeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.</p><p>I believe consumers&#39; willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple&#39;s products as they are mostly discretionary items.</p><h2>China</h2><p>China poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China&#39;s strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company&#39;s operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company&#39;s stock price. Further, given Beijing&#39;s sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Considering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced75e14e292b2fe406cf1a3d16e20d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Thus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor&#39;s confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple&#39;s foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple&#39;s discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>SL Investments</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Bottom Could Be In For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-16 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303353243","content_text":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple's discretionary goods.With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntroductionI was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple's growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers' future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.CurrencyGlobal currency risks have faded, likely permanently.\"In South Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.\"I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone's pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar's strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.Data by YChartsData by YChartsAs the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple's financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan's decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I'd call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple's global operations.Macroeconomic ForecastMacroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.Conference BoardTrading EconomicsAs the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers' confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers' lowest priority.Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.Trading EconomicsAs the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.I believe consumers' willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple's products as they are mostly discretionary items.ChinaChina poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China's strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company's operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company's stock price. Further, given Beijing's sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.ValuationConsidering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple's valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.Data by YChartsThus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor's confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple's valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.SummaryI was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple's foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple's discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.This article is written by SL Investments for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105583559,"gmtCreate":1673909946383,"gmtModify":1673909959144,"authorId":3574671095836888,"author":{"id":3574671095836888,"idStr":"3574671095836888","authorId":3574671095836888,"name":"HuGang3166","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eec1ffec53cf574f9f59bc64caabf88","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9956903850,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">Good</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">Good</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">Good</span>"},{"id":105580567,"gmtCreate":1673871170916,"gmtModify":1673871183990,"authorId":4100585800107600,"author":{"id":4100585800107600,"idStr":"4100585800107600","authorId":4100585800107600,"name":"Ignatius Teo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c14f0bde92c1a46e81681feec8a55863","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.03","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9956903850,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Awesome","text":"Awesome","html":"Awesome"},{"id":105580560,"gmtCreate":1673871110100,"gmtModify":1673871123265,"authorId":3586053412837856,"author":{"id":3586053412837856,"idStr":"3586053412837856","authorId":3586053412837856,"name":"Cam20","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037da9ce01a8e834173bfb42cccaa40f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9956903850,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[Cool]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[Cool]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[Cool]</span>"},{"id":105580554,"gmtCreate":1673871079663,"gmtModify":1673871092675,"authorId":3586053409735009,"author":{"id":3586053409735009,"idStr":"3586053409735009","authorId":3586053409735009,"name":"DancingOwl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dde4a3d6bbb288433e036b7096329e39","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9956903850,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">ok</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">ok</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">ok</span>"},{"id":105580544,"gmtCreate":1673871031061,"gmtModify":1673871044610,"authorId":3572994197533323,"author":{"id":3572994197533323,"idStr":"3572994197533323","authorId":3572994197533323,"name":"STAN13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f4400b5b8016e50f145523d62e467b4","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9956903850,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>k</u>","text":"<u>k</u>","html":"<u>k</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9956070223,"gmtCreate":1673864544462,"gmtModify":1676538896022,"author":{"id":"4101812295452420","authorId":"4101812295452420","name":"TC77","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/4e02ade4ceadb0fb0dd8f611670c82d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4101812295452420","authorIdStr":"4101812295452420"},"htmlText":"Time to buy?&nbsp;","listText":"Time to buy?&nbsp;","text":"Time to buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956070223","repostId":2303353243,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2303353243","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673856194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2303353243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-16 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303353243","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likel","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I think Apple&#39;s currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.</li><li>Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple&#39;s discretionary goods.</li><li>With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple&#39;s growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers&#39; future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.</p><h2>Currency</h2><p>Global currency risks have faded, likely permanently.</p><blockquote>&#34;In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQX.AU\">South</a> Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.&#34;</blockquote><p>I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone&#39;s pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar&#39;s strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a027df5a903dab9acc6eb8e7e822a3a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08581952d5da9c52291325c1f1c9af3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple&#39;s financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.</p><p>Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.</p><p>This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.</p><p>For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan&#39;s decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I&#39;d call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple&#39;s global operations.</p><h2>Macroeconomic Forecast</h2><p>Macroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb08c8e05e74d6b3ff690c73604b53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Conference Board</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8866d79efc4f2652b8cca34616acfa07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers&#39; confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers&#39; lowest priority.</p><p>Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c04d0878f3c8859773f96f1dafdeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.</p><p>I believe consumers&#39; willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple&#39;s products as they are mostly discretionary items.</p><h2>China</h2><p>China poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China&#39;s strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company&#39;s operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company&#39;s stock price. Further, given Beijing&#39;s sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Considering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced75e14e292b2fe406cf1a3d16e20d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Thus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor&#39;s confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple&#39;s foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple&#39;s discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>SL Investments</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Bottom Could Be In For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-16 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303353243","content_text":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple's discretionary goods.With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntroductionI was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple's growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers' future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.CurrencyGlobal currency risks have faded, likely permanently.\"In South Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.\"I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone's pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar's strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.Data by YChartsData by YChartsAs the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple's financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan's decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I'd call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple's global operations.Macroeconomic ForecastMacroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.Conference BoardTrading EconomicsAs the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers' confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers' lowest priority.Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.Trading EconomicsAs the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.I believe consumers' willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple's products as they are mostly discretionary items.ChinaChina poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China's strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company's operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company's stock price. Further, given Beijing's sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.ValuationConsidering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple's valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.Data by YChartsThus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor's confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple's valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.SummaryI was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple's foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple's discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.This article is written by SL Investments for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105580251,"gmtCreate":1673867459717,"gmtModify":1673867472851,"authorId":3576837410161825,"author":{"id":3576837410161825,"idStr":"3576837410161825","authorId":3576837410161825,"name":"Bubikhoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3247ebd81f7b901adc64183ed4fe7458","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.17","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9956070223,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9956056383,"gmtCreate":1673858645442,"gmtModify":1676538895336,"author":{"id":"3563859164285775","authorId":"3563859164285775","name":"J1000","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8ecd9c9f9155b597bf186803ea57192","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563859164285775","authorIdStr":"3563859164285775"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956056383","repostId":2303353243,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2303353243","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1673856194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2303353243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-16 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2303353243","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likel","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>I think Apple&#39;s currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.</li><li>Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple&#39;s discretionary goods.</li><li>With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d43b780fc874fa58434f7e1e8615a0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple&#39;s growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers&#39; future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.</p><h2>Currency</h2><p>Global currency risks have faded, likely permanently.</p><blockquote>&#34;In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQX.AU\">South</a> Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.&#34;</blockquote><p>I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone&#39;s pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar&#39;s strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a027df5a903dab9acc6eb8e7e822a3a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f08581952d5da9c52291325c1f1c9af3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>As the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple&#39;s financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.</p><p>Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.</p><p>This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.</p><p>For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan&#39;s decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I&#39;d call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple&#39;s global operations.</p><h2>Macroeconomic Forecast</h2><p>Macroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2beb08c8e05e74d6b3ff690c73604b53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Conference Board</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8866d79efc4f2652b8cca34616acfa07\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers&#39; confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers&#39; lowest priority.</p><p>Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c04d0878f3c8859773f96f1dafdeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Trading Economics</span></p><p>As the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.</p><p>I believe consumers&#39; willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple&#39;s products as they are mostly discretionary items.</p><h2>China</h2><p>China poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China&#39;s strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company&#39;s operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company&#39;s stock price. Further, given Beijing&#39;s sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.</p><h2>Valuation</h2><p>Considering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced75e14e292b2fe406cf1a3d16e20d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Thus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor&#39;s confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple&#39;s valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple&#39;s foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple&#39;s discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.</p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>SL Investments</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Bottom Could Be In For Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Bottom Could Be In For Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-16 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","AAPL":"苹果","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569778-why-the-bottom-could-be-in-for-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2303353243","content_text":"SummaryI think Apple's currency risk has dissipated. In fact, the foreign exchange market will likely act in favor of Apple in 2023.Consumer confidence has hit a trough and changed its trajectory upward, likely supporting demand for Apple's discretionary goods.With reasons for my bearish thesis on Apple disappearing, I now believe that Apple is a buy.Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesIntroductionI was bearish on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in my previous two articles. In October, I believed the rough macroeconomic conditions causing significant currency risks were a threat to Apple's growth longevity in foreign markets. The absurdly strong dollar created iPhone price increases of double digits in key markets including Japan. Further,in July, given the nose-diving consumer sentiment and worsening macroeconomic expectations, I argued that iPhone 14 sales may not be stunning. However, today, given the current economic situation and consumers' future expectations of improvement, I believe Apple, as a company, will see a strong rebound in the second half of 2023. Because stocks often move months before the actual event in anticipation, Apple may be a buy today.CurrencyGlobal currency risks have faded, likely permanently.\"In South Korea and Japan, iPhone prices grew by 15% and 21%, respectively while iPhone prices in the UK and Europe increased by 16% and 13%, respectively.\"I said the above statement in my previous article to argue that the strong US dollar is making iPhone's pricing less attractive in foreign markets. Today, in just a few short months, the US dollar's strength has weakened significantly creating an immense positive catalyst.Data by YChartsData by YChartsAs the charts above show, the US Dollar has seen a significant pullback from its October highs, which I believe is positive. First, since Apple has already raised prices for its products including iPhones in these markets, the favorable currency environment will inflate Apple's financials when calculated in USD. For example, a theoretical iPhone sold for 100,000 Japanese Yen when USD to Japanese Yen exchange rate was 150 yen per dollar will equate to about 666 USD. On the other hand, when the same phone is sold today at 130 yen per dollar, it equates to about 769 USD. Further, if Apple sees that the high price has pressure on sales, the company will have more room for sales of iPhone 14 or a lower launch price of its new products that will be released in the future.Throughout 2023 and beyond, I believe it is highly likely for the USD to weaken even further compared to foreign currencies. USD becomes favorable for investors in foreign markets when the US government increases interest rates, and if the foreign government cannot raise the interest rate faster than the US government, the strengthening of the dollar is usually a typical outcome.This was the case in 2022. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates more aggressively than its foreign counterparts causing the strengthening of the dollar. This creates massive risks for a foreign country as its access to a valuable dollar becomes limited. However, foreign governments like the Japanese government cannot typically intervene in the currency market to protect its currency despite the short-term instability because the US government, leveraging its dominant position of the dollar, attempts to limit foreign governments from intervening in the currency markets by designating either a monitoring status or a currency manipulator status each year in October.For example, if government A heavily intervened in its currency markets, the United States treasury might designate it as a manipulator or monitoring status to give a warning before potentially imposing sanctions. Thus, foreign governments typically attempt to avoid this status, which has limited their response to irregular currency market situations in 2022 causing a strengthening of the USD. However, in late October, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, respected Japan's decision to intervene in the markets signaling that other countries to follow suit given what I'd call irregular and illogical market conditions to stabilize the market. I believe this has caused the currency markets to cool down as investors betting on the strengthening USD against foreign currencies now also have to fight the local governments who likely do not wish their currencies to be devalued so quickly, in my opinion. Therefore, I think the USD will likely continue to decline to normal levels in 2023 benefiting Apple's global operations.Macroeconomic ForecastMacroeconomic conditions are expected to be gloomy in 2023. The ISM Manufacturing Index tracking manufacturing activity in the United States showed a contractionary environment for two consecutive months in November and December 2022 while the World Bank lowered the global economic growth expectations sharply in 2023 from 3% to 1.7% in just 6 months. However, looking at the consumer confidence data in the United States and the EU along with the inflation expectation data, I believe the economic downturn could be limited to 2023.Conference BoardTrading EconomicsAs the charts above show, both the EU and the US consumers saw a strong confidence boost toward the end of 2022. Given that recovering consumer confidence was followed by an economic recovery in the following year in the 2008 recession, I see this as a positive sign. Further, as consumers' confidence is highly important for spending on discretionary items like the iPhone, the changing trajectory of consumers will likely benefit Apple as in times of hard economic hardships, discretionary goods are likely consumers' lowest priority.Future inflation expectations data further supports the argument that consumers are becoming more confident.Trading EconomicsAs the chart above shows, after peaking in June, US consumers are expecting inflation to swiftly come down, which has likely helped the strong rebound in consumer confidence.I believe consumers' willingness to spend will likely limit the magnitude and the duration of the recession acting as a strong support for Apple's products as they are mostly discretionary items.ChinaChina poses both risks and opportunities for Apple. Starting with the risks, China's strong stance on zero-Covid policy has prompted a massive production nightmare for Apple. Covid cases in its factory have hindered the company's operation. However, although the earnings report for the fourth quarter has not been released yet with the details regarding this event, the repercussion from the event is likely priced into the company's stock price. Further, given Beijing's sharp turnaround in its Covid policy to allow normal activities, future production hindrances will be unlikely while economic growth from the policy will drive iPhone demand.ValuationConsidering that past headwinds have turned into a tailwind, I believe Apple's valuation multiples could see a meaningful expansion in 2023. Valuation multiples of stock are inelastic, moving with the overall economy and the confidence of the investors. The chart below shows this phenomenon. When the market was confident in Apple and in the future of the economy, the valuation multiple of Apple shot up.Data by YChartsThus, because the foreign exchange market and strong consumer sentiment could lead to margin and demand expansion, the investor's confidence in Apple will likely return. Further, with strong confidence in consumers and declining inflation, I believe Apple's valuation multiple today is cheap as it could expand its multiples to historic highs given favorable market conditions.SummaryI was bearish on Apple in the second half of 2022 due to currency risks and macroeconomic conditions hurting consumer confidence. I thought the strong USD would eat away at demand and profit for Apple's foreign markets while weak consumer sentiment would be detrimental to Apple's discretionary products. However, given that both the currency risks and consumer sentiment risks have eased, I believe Apple is a buy again.This article is written by SL Investments for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105579585,"gmtCreate":1673858653526,"gmtModify":1673858666821,"authorId":3563859164285775,"author":{"id":3563859164285775,"idStr":"3563859164285775","authorId":3563859164285775,"name":"J1000","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8ecd9c9f9155b597bf186803ea57192","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.09.11","exceedPercentage":"93.65%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9956056383,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">K</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">K</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">K</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":436,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}