Oil Market Faces Production Issue in 2024, Goldman’s Currie Says

Bloomberg2023-02-06

Analyst sees oil rising above $100 a barrel this yearSays erosion of production capacity is a “serious problem”Oil will rise back above $100 a barrel this year and may face a serious supply problem in...

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·2023-02-06
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By May, oil markets should flip to a deficit of supply compared to demand, he said. That could use up much of the unused capacity global producers have, which will be positive for prices, he said.Oil prices have had a volatile few years, plunging below $20 during the coronavirus pandemic before soaring close to $130 after Ukraine war disrupted supply that was already falling short of global demand. The cost of transport fuels rose even higher as refineries maxed out capacity, before falling back as countries scrambled for alternatives.Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also used remarks at the Riyadh conference on Saturday to decry the lack of investment in refining capacity that has left the world undersupplied. He reiterated that OPEC+ would remain cautious in deciding when to ramp up output.Saudi Arabia is the de facto leader, along with Russia, of the group that brings together Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers in an effort to balance supply and demand while keeping prices palatable for members. Prince Abdulaziz said OPEC+’s efforts at limiting supply had saved oil markets during the plunge in demand during the pandemic.Currie reiterated Goldman’s view that OPEC+ will unwind production limits and look to raise output later this year. An OPEC+ market monitoring committee this month recommended that the group keep oil output unchanged.“Right now, we’re still balanced to a surplus because China has still yet to fully rebound,” Currie said. Capacity is likely to become a problem later this year when demand outstrips supply, he said.“Are we going to run out of spare production capacity? 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