New Jobs Data Could Decide the Fed’s Next Move. What to Expect

marketwatch2023-03-10

The February jobs report hits the spotlight Friday, with economists predicting a slowdown from January and investors ready to dissect what the numbers mean for the Federal Reserve’s next move on ...

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来人
·2023-03-10
Ok
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Fayedea
·2023-03-10
Great
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LTKalien
·2023-03-10
The Data coming out on Friday, pre date the SVB crisis. I certainly hope various analysts can see this, and do not take the easy route of lumping such sensational news together. Although sensational news do sells easier, just try to be truthful.
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They cite factors including seasonal support to retail in February and the lag between a wave of layoff announcements in January—which they don’t expect to take hold until March. Wilding and Boxer also cite a general trend of resilience across recent jobless claims.“We think there are upside risks to consensus,” they wrote.Data released on Thursday, however, indicated the tight labor market could be loosening. The Labor Department said Thursday that initial jobless claims rose to 211,000 in the week ended March 4, the highest level since Christmas. Economists expected claims to rise to 196,000.Friday’s payrolls release—due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern—will hit a market that is increasingly worried the economy continues to run too hot for the Fed’s liking. The S&P 500 has fallen 4.5% since Feb. 2, when the January jobs report pushed traders to rethink the narrative the Fed was shifting away from its aggressive monetary policy.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was clear in testimony before Congress this week the central bank will be dependent on data, emphasizing the jury is out over the next rate decision—even as it is anticipated they will go higher than once thought.Futures markets were pricing in a 62% chance of a 50-basis point hike on March 22 as of Thursday, up from a 31% chance a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The odds of a half-point increase were even higher earlier in the week, hovering near 80% on Wednesday. They decreased after SVB Financial Group (ticker: SIVB) sold securities from its portfolio for a $1.8 billion loss, triggering a selloff in bank stocks Thursday and raising concerns about the impact of higher rates.All this means is the jobs report, along with next Tuesday’s inflation reading via the consumer price index, comes at a crucial time.Investors will want to see nonfarm payrolls and earnings growth below expectations to get more optimistic about stocks after a volatile week. A higher unemployment rate would also help.“Some analysts will focus on the wage data, and technically that is the most important part of the report for the Fed because it’s trying to restore more balance in the labor market,” said Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research. “But at the end of the day, if job adds are strong and wages drop, given other inflation metrics, it won’t make the Fed less hawkish.”Last month isn’t the only thing in focus, because revisions may also come to the January print, which some analysts have blamed on factors including strikes and even unseasonably-warm weather.No matter what, Friday promises to give investors something to chew on.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9949155282,"gmtCreate":1678454674747,"gmtModify":1678454678675,"author":{"id":"3575544575320394","authorId":"3575544575320394","name":"来人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af89587decbb8a1d3e1596adc29cb98","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575544575320394","authorIdStr":"3575544575320394"},"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949155282","repostId":2318227772,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9949155830,"gmtCreate":1678454658821,"gmtModify":1678454663159,"author":{"id":"4087523982151170","authorId":"4087523982151170","name":"Fayedea","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9d26a7d632140dba3255747fafc07d3","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087523982151170","authorIdStr":"4087523982151170"},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949155830","repostId":2318227772,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9949151782,"gmtCreate":1678452409947,"gmtModify":1678452914546,"author":{"id":"4138441693914192","authorId":"4138441693914192","name":"LTKalien","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d2ccbfcfe6e70ce1130e526f89dc16d3","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4138441693914192","authorIdStr":"4138441693914192"},"htmlText":"The Data coming out on Friday, pre date the SVB crisis. I certainly hope various analysts can see this, and do not take the easy route of lumping such sensational news together. Although sensational news do sells easier, just try to be truthful.&nbsp;","listText":"The Data coming out on Friday, pre date the SVB crisis. I certainly hope various analysts can see this, and do not take the easy route of lumping such sensational news together. Although sensational news do sells easier, just try to be truthful.&nbsp;","text":"The Data coming out on Friday, pre date the SVB crisis. I certainly hope various analysts can see this, and do not take the easy route of lumping such sensational news together. Although sensational news do sells easier, just try to be truthful.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949151782","repostId":2318227772,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":66,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}