除了用“衰退打败通胀”，鲍威尔别无他法

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除了用“衰退打败通胀”，鲍威尔别无他法

华尔街见闻2023-03-09

在经济学家Steven Blitz看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。在美国经济步入衰退之前，美联储不会停止加息。周三，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Steven Blitz在接受媒体采访时表示，除非鲍威尔制造一场衰退，失业率开始上升，美联储才会停止加息。Blitz强调，在经济没有衰退的情况下，美联储无法估计其利率上限。Blitz指出：他们不知道...

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钱包君你要振作起来
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Hatzius指出：无论美联储会是选择加息25个基点还是50个基点，预计3月份经济预测摘要中对利率峰值的预测中值将达到5.5%-5.75%。高盛还预计，3月会议前的数据喜忧参半，1月份美国职位空缺数虽有所下降，但预计2月核心CPI环比涨幅为0.45%，较前值0.4%有所反弹。因此高盛指出：我们对于3月加息25个基点的预测很悬，存在美联储FOMC加息50个基点的风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9949315193,"gmtCreate":1678362652712,"gmtModify":1678362655245,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ca44ce56a8179e74833f6dd18a15e278","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315193","repostId":2318230395,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2318230395","pubTimestamp":1678342683,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2318230395?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-09 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Hatzius指出：</p><blockquote>无论美联储会是选择加息25个基点还是50个基点，<b>预计3月份经济预测摘要中对利率峰值的预测中值将达到5.5%-5.75%。</b></blockquote><p>高盛还预计，3月会议前的数据喜忧参半，1月份美国职位空缺数虽有所下降，但预计2月核心CPI环比涨幅为0.45%，较前值0.4%有所反弹。因此高盛指出：</p><blockquote>我们对于3月加息25个基点的预测很悬，存在美联储FOMC加息50个基点的风险。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>除了用“衰退打败通胀”，鲍威尔别无他法</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n除了用“衰退打败通胀”，鲍威尔别无他法\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-09 14:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683645><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在经济学家Steven Blitz看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。在美国经济步入衰退之前，美联储不会停止加息。周三，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Steven Blitz在接受媒体采访时表示，除非鲍威尔制造一场衰退，失业率开始上升，美联储才会停止加息。Blitz强调，在经济没有衰退的情况下，美联储无法估计其利率上限。Blitz指出：他们不知道...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683645\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63ad6d149dc7d2caabace61c93649d4b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683645","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2318230395","content_text":"在经济学家Steven Blitz看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。在美国经济步入衰退之前，美联储不会停止加息。周三，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Steven Blitz在接受媒体采访时表示，除非鲍威尔制造一场衰退，失业率开始上升，美联储才会停止加息。Blitz强调，在经济没有衰退的情况下，美联储无法估计其利率上限。Blitz指出：他们不知道最高利率在哪里，因为他们不知道在没有衰退的情况下通胀会在哪里稳定下来。在我看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。鲍威尔在周二的国会听证会中指出，最近的经济数据强于预期，这表明最终的利率水平可能会高于之前的预期。这一鹰派论调令市场加息预期快速升温，从经济“不着陆”的论调跳到“硬着陆”。债市加倍下注美国经济衰退，2年期和10年期美债收益率之间的倒挂幅度，自1981年以来首次超过了100基点。高盛则在最新报告中上调了利率峰值预期，高盛经济学家Jan Hatzius指出：无论美联储会是选择加息25个基点还是50个基点，预计3月份经济预测摘要中对利率峰值的预测中值将达到5.5%-5.75%。高盛还预计，3月会议前的数据喜忧参半，1月份美国职位空缺数虽有所下降，但预计2月核心CPI环比涨幅为0.45%，较前值0.4%有所反弹。因此高盛指出：我们对于3月加息25个基点的预测很悬，存在美联储FOMC加息50个基点的风险。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}