美联储“鹰心”或难以动摇！市场预期又挨大棒？

24
Comment
1

美联储“鹰心”或难以动摇！市场预期又挨大棒？

金十数据2023-05-01

认同市场就等于承认错误！美联储将于今年年尾的降息预期真的“稳”了吗？随着美联储几十年来最大幅度的利率紧缩运动接近尾声，过去政策错误所导致的惨痛教训将严重影响政策制定者的后续步伐。尽管美联储以几十年来最快的速度推加息，但联邦基金利率会在高位停留多久是一个连他们自己都很难回答的问题。没人知道要多久才能控制高粘性的服务业通胀，也没人知道信贷紧缩会以多快的速度瓦解需求。期货市场几乎完全消化了美联储将在本月...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment

maxcheng
·2023-05-02
Ok
Reply
Like
Report

Most Discussed

7x24

All

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2332624680?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5657d24ae68fd59066d5458a132c55","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-05-01 18:18","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2332624680","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美联储“鹰心”或难以动摇！市场预期又挨大棒？","media":"金十数据","content":"<div>\n<p>认同市场就等于承认错误！美联储将于今年年尾的降息预期真的“稳”了吗？随着美联储几十年来最大幅度的利率紧缩运动接近尾声，过去政策错误所导致的惨痛教训将严重影响政策制定者的后续步伐。尽管美联储以几十年来最快的速度推加息，但联邦基金利率会在高位停留多久是一个连他们自己都很难回答的问题。没人知道要多久才能控制高粘性的服务业通胀，也没人知道信贷紧缩会以多快的速度瓦解需求。期货市场几乎完全消化了美联储将在本月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=111557&type=news&data_type=0\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"xnew_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储“鹰心”或难以动摇！市场预期又挨大棒？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储“鹰心”或难以动摇！市场预期又挨大棒？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-01 18:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=111557&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>认同市场就等于承认错误！美联储将于今年年尾的降息预期真的“稳”了吗？随着美联储几十年来最大幅度的利率紧缩运动接近尾声，过去政策错误所导致的惨痛教训将严重影响政策制定者的后续步伐。尽管美联储以几十年来最快的速度推加息，但联邦基金利率会在高位停留多久是一个连他们自己都很难回答的问题。没人知道要多久才能控制高粘性的服务业通胀，也没人知道信贷紧缩会以多快的速度瓦解需求。期货市场几乎完全消化了美联储将在本月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=111557&type=news&data_type=0\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4559","symbol_name":"巴菲特持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=111557&type=news&data_type=0","article_id":"2332624680","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5657d24ae68fd59066d5458a132c55"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2332624680","pubTimestamp":1682936298,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"xnew_highlight","name":"金十要闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"期货市场几乎完全消化了美联储将在本月加息25个基点的预期，投机者纷纷出手押注美元走软，美联储今年年尾的降息预期真的“稳”了吗？","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"jin10.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF"},"translate_title":"The Fed's \"eagle heart\" may be hard to shake! Market expectations are getting hit again?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40df9d24dd67053e7fe5442633872436","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6},"content_text":"认同市场就等于承认错误！美联储将于今年年尾的降息预期真的“稳”了吗？随着美联储几十年来最大幅度的利率紧缩运动接近尾声，过去政策错误所导致的惨痛教训将严重影响政策制定者的后续步伐。尽管美联储以几十年来最快的速度推加息，但联邦基金利率会在高位停留多久是一个连他们自己都很难回答的问题。没人知道要多久才能控制高粘性的服务业通胀，也没人知道信贷紧缩会以多快的速度瓦解需求。期货市场几乎完全消化了美联储将在本月加息25个基点，并使联邦基金利率至5%至5.25%区间的预期。目前市场比较关注的是：鲍威尔及其同事是否会发出暂停加息的信号。投机者已出手押注？因为预计美联储在本周加息后暂停，投资者纷纷押注美元即将走软。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的数据显示，截至4月25日，对冲基金和其他大型投机者将美元兑主要货币的净看空头寸增至逾7万份，为2021年6月以来的最高水平。根据外媒对美元兑主要贸易伙伴汇率的衡量，美元将抹去自美联储去年3月开始提高联邦基金利率以来的所有涨幅。由于欧洲央行和英国央行预计将在未来几个月采取更为激进的行动，投机者正关注欧元和英镑延续涨势的可能性。欧元和英镑已成为今年表现最好的三大主要发达国家货币之一。野村控股驻悉尼的利率策略师Andrew Ticehurst表示：“我们仍看好欧元，因市场普遍认为美联储将上演“最后一舞”，而欧洲央行还有更多工作要做。人们认为，欧洲央行和英国央行的后续加息幅度将超过美联储，尤其是在美国经济前景笼罩在对衰退的担忧以及对银行业和债务上限的担忧阴影之下。”市场对美联储的降息预期又错？包括高盛在内的经济学家下调了美联储在6月再次加息的预期，瑞银首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle预计，美联储将发出暂停的信号，但他也补充说，如果数据需要，他们会再次加息。他指出，美联储过去三个加息周期的最后一次加息都附有“免责声明”，即下一步行动可能是再次加息而不是降息。因为通胀仍远高于目标水平，而明确结束加息可能会颠覆公众对美联储维持稳定物价承诺的预期。此外，美联储的想法可能会受到20世纪60年代末至80年代初其与通胀的长期斗争的启发，并努力避免重蹈沃顿商学院教授杰里米-西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）曾称为 “战后美国宏观经济政策的最大失败”的覆辙。在那段时间里，美联储未能阻止工资价格的螺旋式上升，经过几次提高和降低利率的尝试，联邦基金利率甚至达到了20%的峰值，并经历四次经济衰退，美联储最终才将事情控制住。约翰-汉考克投资管理公司（John Hancock Investment Management）的联合首席投资策略师Emily Roland在谈到美联储时说：“我们预计会政策制定者可能会停下来看看他们到目前为止所做的所有加息的影响几何，但他们肯定不会同意债券市场的意见，或者说他们不会在下半年降息，那基本上相当于承认你已经犯了一个错误，将不得不在利率上走‘回头路’。”如果鲍威尔或美联储的声明暗示5月后将暂停加息，风险资产可能会反弹。Roland称，如果鲍威尔发表了鸽派的表态，这将令人意外，可能为市场提供另一股推动力。但Roland也表示，仍有保持谨慎的必要。她说：“我认为要警惕追涨，因为目前市场几乎没有显示出投资者看空的迹象：波动性很低，VIX指数低于20，标普500指数的预期市盈率为18倍。在宏观经济情况与市场情况完全不同的情况下，注意不要给投资组合增加太多风险。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9947849083,"gmtCreate":1682980776843,"gmtModify":1682980780328,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947849083","repostId":2332624680,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":24,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}