Task is to convince markets that central bank won't rush to the rescue in any recession
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by another quarter of one percentage point on Wednesday, in what could very well be the last rate hike of this cycle, economists said.
The 25 basis point move would push the Fed's benchmark interest rate to a range of 5%-5.25%. That is seen by many as high enough to slow the economy and cool inflation.
"I think they will have done enough to quell the monster of inflation," said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James .
Although there are some good reasons to pause, economists said the path of least resistance for the Fed is to confirm the widespread market expectations of a move.
Traders in derivative markets have put the odds of a quarter-point rate hike at over 80%, roughly where it has been for weeks.
"If you don't want to hike, they should have said something," said Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Securities.
The Fed's interest-rate committee will meet next Tuesday and Wednesday, with a decision announced at 2pm on the second day. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will follow with a press conference at 2:30 p.m.
Harris said the big problem for the Fed is to convince the bond market that they going to hold interest rates at persistently high levels.
"The bond and stock markets want to believe that the Fed is going to come to the rescue here," Harris said.
Since the 1980s, the Fed has cut rates quickly at the first sign of a slowing economy.
But this time, the Fed is going to follow a different playbook, and accept the recession, given that inflation is higher than it has been in 35 years, Harris said.
"You really have to go back to the 1970s and 1980s to understand what they're up to," Harris said.
Aldeman agreed that the markets are misreading the Fed.
"Markets believe that as soon as the economy goes into recession, the Fed is going to un-tighten. I don't think that is the case," he said.
If the Fed eases quickly, then inflation "could rear its ugly head again," he said.
Sonia Meskin, head of U.S. macro at BNY Mellon Investment Management, says she has penciled in a recession for later this year.
The stress in the banking sector and a subsequent pullback of lending will trigger the downturn, she said.
The Fed's staff has also forecast a mild recession for this year. Aleman and Harris also see a recession ahead.
Harris said he is expecting one of the mildest recessions on record, with the unemployment rate going up to 5%.
"That is not a bad outcome. This is an economy that overshot and needs to come back to normal," Harris said.
Banks are going to pull back lending to restore their balance sheets, economists said.
Economists think this will cool the economy in a way that is equivalent to one or two 25 basis point rate hikes, so that's one reason for talk that the central bank is done raising rates.
The Fed isn't going to give a clear signal that they are done.
"I don't think the Fed goes on a more permanent sounding pause until they feel like we're slipping into a recession," Harris said. Until then, there will be a bias towards tightening.
Meskin believes the Fed's plans could be scuttled by the partisan fight in Congress over raising the U.S. debt ceiling.
"We expect the Fed to be more cautious in the face of that kind of uncertainty, especially since it would come on top of ongoing concerns about the banking sector," Meskin said.
Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, said he doesn't think policymakers will be unanimous in their decision "given the current market fluidity and numerous possible interpretations of the economic data."