Could SoFi Technologies Be Next Up On The Chopping Board?

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Could SoFi Technologies Be Next Up On The Chopping Board?

Seeking Alpha2023-05-18

SummarySoFi's stock has nearly wiped out its YTD gains despite reporting outperformance in the first quarter, and a strong guide for the current quarter.Much of SOFI's recent weakness could be ...

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corns
·2023-05-18
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The company’s lending segment has been a particularly bright spot, helped primarily by robust demand for personal loans. Despite consistent growth observed across SoFi’s other segments – technology platform and financial services – critical to sustaining the company’s low-CAC flywheel “Financial Services Productivity Loop” (“FSPL”) business model, they remain modest at best relative to acceleration in the lending segment.This underscores substantial concentration in SoFi’s business mix, which could increase its vulnerability to challenges ensuing from looming recession risks. Continued economic deterioration typically comes with increased delinquencies and inadvertently credit losses, which could impact the quality of loans originated by SoFi. This would increase the risk of value deterioration in SoFi’s loan portfolio, and impact gains on their subsequent sale into “whole loan or securitization channels” needed to fund incremental growth within its key lending business. Related risks have been further corroborated by the lack of personal and home loan sales into whole loan channels during the first quarter, which provides little validation to the durability of cumulative fair value adjustments of more than $551,600 on loans held for sale over the same period, and potentially implies already weak deal terms under the current market climate.Taken together, SoFi faces incremental pressure to its lending capacity, which could inadvertently stem near-term growth prospects within its core lending segment (i.e. if lending capacity is reduced, then the durability of SoFi’s double-digit growth – primarily driven by its lending business – is at risk). In the worst-case scenario, increased pressure on SoFi’s lending capacity amid deteriorating financial conditions could require the company to tap into additional capital fundraising through either equity or debt at unfavourable terms under the uncertain market climate – especially considering its currently unprofitable business under GAAP measures, which management has acknowledged as a risk.If our current net losses continue for the foreseeable future and we are not able to achieve GAAP net income profitability in 2023 as currently expected, we may raise additional capital in the form of equity or debt, which may not be at favourable terms when compared to previous financing transactions. Source: SoFi 1Q23 10Q FilingThis could potentially further dampen both investors and retail consumers’ confidence, and put SoFi at risk of a similar spiral currently observed across regional banks.Currently trading at about 2x forward sales, SoFi's stock is priced near its historical low, despite expectations for double-digit growth in the current year. This implies substantial multiple compression risk, reflecting investors’ growing aversion to the stock. While many have attributed the shares’ recent decline post-earnings to its weaker-than-expected upward adjustment to the full year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance in proportion to robust 1H23 prospects, the conservative estimate may be a telling tale indicative of management’s cautious optimism in navigating through tightening credit conditions ahead which could weigh on the prospects of its core growth driving lending business.In the meantime, aforementioned risks to SoFi’s lending capacity may appear remote, given the firm had exited the first quarter with “over $20 billion in total capacity to fund loans and meet [its] liquidity needs”, in line with needs to support its quarterly loan origination run-rate at the $3 billion to $4 billion range observed over the past 12 months. But the rapid pace of confidence erosion observed in the banking sector, coupled with fragile market sentiment amid tightening financial conditions and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties, keeps us incrementally cautious on the durability of SoFi’s concentrated growth in its recession-prone lending business.SoFi’s Lending Segment Has Been Critical To Its Fundamental TargetsSoFi’s lending segment operates under a “gain-on-sale origination model”, whereby loans are originated with an intension for subsequent sale to third-party whole loan and/or securitization channels. The segment currently originates personal, home and student loans, which are primarily classified as held for sale and measured at fair value on a monthly basis “using current company-specific as well as macro factors and reflect what an expected sale price would be at that point in time”. Related fair value changes are recorded in “non-interest income – loan origination and sales”.SoFi’s lending segment has been a sole bright spot for its growing business in recent years. Quarterly total net revenue in the segment have more than doubled since 2021, while contribution profit margins have also expanded towards the 60% range following the acquisition of Golden Pacific Bancorp (“GPB”) and national bank charter approval last year, which allowed SoFi to fund loans at a lower cost via member deposits.Despite higher interest rates that have resulted in an increase to losses on loan hedging activities, as well as higher loan write-offs and lower home and student loan appetite during the first quarter, SoFi’s lending segment recorded net fair value gains of more than $551,600, primarily driven by “higher origination volume and higher coupon rates” on personal loans. This underscores risks to the durability of non-interest income growth attributable to loan origination and sales, as deteriorating macroeconomic conditions continue to weigh on new loan appetite, particularly on home and student loans.SoFi 1Q23 10Q FilingSoFi 1Q23 10Q FilingSoFi 1Q23 10Q FilingLending CapacitySoFi’s lending business is primarily funded by member deposits, debt warehousing facilities, as well as its own equity capital. The approval of a national bank charter for SoFi in conjunction with the completion of its acquisition of GPB last year has allowed the company to start funding loans with member deposits, which helped to bolster the segment’s profitability in recent quarters by lowering capital costs. Specifically, aggressive rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve over the past year has drastically increased the cost of loan funding from warehousing facilities. And the bank charter approval has come at an opportune time to alleviate margin pressures for SoFi’s core lending business.Additionally, by using our deposits as a funding source, we benefit from a lower cost of funding for loans. In Q4, the difference in our deposit cost of funds and warehouse cost of funds was approximately 190 basis points, where it was 125 basis points in Q3, and just 100 basis points in Q2, a powerful benefit in a rising rate environment. Source: SoFi 4Q22 Earnings Call TranscriptMember deposits: The SoFi Money virtual banking app, which facilitates cash management services ranging from personal checking and savings to SoFi Money debit cards and paycheck advance, has garnered more than 2.4 million members at the end of the first quarter, up by 48% y/y. Total deposits have climbed towards more than $10 billion, growing at a steady quarterly run-rate of more than $2 billion. And the pace of deposit growth – critical to facilitating low-cost loans for its lending business – has exhibited durability in recent quarters, supported by an increasingly active and sticky member base. More than 90% of SoFi Money accounts are represented by “sticky direct deposit members”, with more than half of “newly funded accounts setting up direct deposit by day 30”. In addition to SoFi’s comprehensive portfolio of retail banking products for its members, a high savings rate of 4.2% has also encouraged deposit growth to feed into its low-cost, high-margin lending business.So, it's actually cheaper for us to fund via deposits than the way we've historically funded the warehouse lines…The reason we can offer the interest rate that we offer is because we actually make more money than we would with warehouse lines and without being a bank… I think the bigger question is, what happens when rates start to get cut and go down. I think we'll be able to hold rate much longer and higher than our competitors and really gain even more market share. Our goal is to have as many direct deposit customers as we can… But the rate that we're providing is very competitive, but it's very attractive to us form a financial rewards -- return standpoint. Source: SoFi 1Q23 Earnings Call TranscriptDebt warehousing facilities: Prior to receiving its banking charter, debt warehousing facilities – or capital borrowed from third-party banks – were the primary funding source for SoFi’s core lending business. The company currently has access to $8.6 billion of warehouse facilities, and has drawn $3.6 billion to fund existing loans. The drawn portion has stayed consistent at an average of about $3 billion over the past 12 months, underscoring durability of SoFi’s current lending capacity model to support its quarterly loan origination run-rate, especially as deposits via SoFi Money continue to expand to enable lower funding costs over the longer-term.Equity capital: SoFi’s lending segment also has access to $3 billion in equity capital. Taken together, the company currently has access to more than $20 billion in capital that can be used towards funding loans and other operational liquidity needs.Risks To Lending Capacity And, Inadvertently, Lending Segment GrowthAs discussed in the earlier section, much of SoFi’s valuation has been priced based on the durability of its double-digit growth profile, which is primarily driven by its lending business. While the company continues to gain share in the personal loans market, in particular, and benefit from expanding lending segment profitability as growing member deposits enable lower funding costs, the rapidly deteriorating macroeconomic climate alongside tightening credit conditions are driving up recession risks, which could impact the durability of SoFi’s lending capacity, and inadvertently, its core growth and profitability driver – the lending segment.1. Deteriorating Loan QualitySoFi has not made any whole loan sales for its personal and home loans businesses during the first quarter. Management has alluded to its “access to the ABS markets” and sustained deposit growth for enabling SoFi with “flexibility to hold loans on [its] balance sheet for longer periods” and optimize returns, especially given ongoing challenges to the macroeconomic environment. However, the lack of whole loan sales during the period provides little validation to the durability of cumulative fair value gains and non-interest income attributable to loan origination and sales, and potentially implies nascent signs of loan quality deterioration amid a weakening macroeconomic outlook. Specifically, longer-dated loan assets held for sale on its balance sheet that have not been offloaded to third-party whole loan and/or securitization channels risk becoming less valuable as they typically pay a lower rate than new loans given ongoing rate hikes.Risks to the durability of valuation gains on loan originations held for sale are further corroborated by the increase in allowance for credit losses pertaining to SoFi’s loans held for investment portfolio since the beginning of the latest monetary policy tightening cycle. Taking the allowance for credit losses pertaining to SoFi’s credit card loans held for investment, for example, as proxy for potential value deterioration in the company’s loan originations held for sale – allowance for credit losses, including provisions, pertaining to SoFi’s credit card loans have jumped towards the 17% to 18% range from the 12% range in recent quarters, representing a near five percentage point increase partially attributable to a potential elevation in loss rates ensuing from the deteriorating consumer (note that the projected life of loan losses remain below SoFi’s risk tolerance for now; this will be discussed further in later sections).SoFi SEC FilingsSimilar provision increases have also been observed in loan origination portfolios held for investment at industry peers like LendingClub (LC) in recent quarters, taking into consideration deteriorating macro factors in the current market climate. Potential risks to the durability of value attributable to SoFi’s loans held for sale portfolio, especially given low sale activity and a lack of comparables in the first quarter, could eventually weigh on the flexibility of the company’s current balance sheet, and inadvertently its lending capacity to fund growth ahead of a recessionary environment. The nascent risks could potentially explain management’s cautious upward revision to SoFi’s full year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, despite robust 1H23 expectations that included outperformance in the first quarter and projections for the current quarter that have also exceeded consensus estimates. Potential risks of slowing loan sales and weakness to the durability of loan valuation gains could also drive incremental pressure on SoFi’s near-term lending capacity, which does not bode well with tightening credit conditions and the high borrowing cost environment, underscoring a potentially challenging growth outlook ahead.2. Susceptibility to Credit LossIn the meantime, SoFi has indicated its “portfolio life of loan losses are forecasted to be 4.5%, which is below [its] risk tolerance” in the 7% to 8% range. Delinquency and charge-off rates have also remained below pre-COVID levels, despite expectations for further normalization as pandemic-era stimulus that have cushioned savings diminish over time.However, recent economic and industry data have already indicated acceleration in the increase of consumer credit card debt beyond pre-pandemic levels. Specifically, consumer revolving credit outstanding grew by almost $18 billion in March, the steepest pace of increase over the past 12 months. This indicates a growing reliance on credit to support spending as persistent inflation and tightening financial conditions weigh further on savings.FREDBloomberg NewsOverall household debt has also increased to a whopping $17 trillion, or about $3 trillion over pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, delinquency rates are on the rise across “most loan types, including credit cards and auto debt”, underscoring the acceleration in financial strain on households, which could be an increasing challenge to SoFi’s core lending business over the near-term.Bloomberg NewsAlthough the appetite for personal loans – a core growth driver within SoFi’s lending business – could stay resilient given growing consumer reliance on credit to keep up with spending, tightening financial conditions could impact loan quality and yield a lower fair value, impacting growth in lending segment income. This, in turn, would also risk impacting SoFi’s ability in capturing incremental personal loan market share by adding incremental stress to its lending capacity, consistent with management’s cautious optimism on the business’ near-term outlook.…we are expecting to continue to see modest growth in our personal loans business. This past quarter, we reached 8.2% market share, that was up from 5.8% last quarter and [5.5%] a year ago. So there is significant headroom to continue to grow that business. But as we've said in the past, we are going to continue to be prudent and thoughtful about how we approach that business and won't overextend ourselves. So expect to see continued modest growth in that business similar to what you seen over the course of the last several quarters. Source: SoFi 1Q23 Earnings Call TranscriptAlthough the credit quality on SoFi’s loans held for sale portfolio remains reasonable, with delinquency rates still within the company’s risk tolerance, we remain incrementally cautious given current weakness in the economy, especially considering fragile sentiment over the broader financial sector.3. Concentration Risk in Loan Origination VolumeAs discussed in the earlier section, much of the lending segment’s growth comes from personal loan origination, while home and student loan demand has been weak. Specifically, SoFi’s home loan originations have been on a decline due to persistent “macro headwinds from rising rates”. Although the company’s recent acquisition of Wyndham Capital Mortgage is expected to improve home loan volumes, organic growth is expected to remain subdued given persistent inflation and resilience in the labour market that could keep rates “higher for longer”, and weigh on the affordability of new homes – close to 80% of Americans have indicated “it is a bad time to buy a house” based on surveyed data in April, despite a slowing pace in price increase.Meanwhile, the extended federal moratorium on student loans continues to be an overhang on related origination volumes at SoFi. Student loan repayments have been paused at zero interest for three years, which has significantly impacted demand for SoFi’s student loan refinancing origination volumes – the company estimates $400 million and $200 million in lost revenues and profits, respectively, due to the moratorium implemented in March 2020. While markets are waiting for the Supreme Court to issue its opinion on the Biden administration’s proposed student debt forgiveness plan, existing student loan payments are expected to resume by the end of August at the latest:Payments are set to resume 60 days after the Supreme Court issues its opinion or June 30, whichever comes first. That puts the restart date at no later than Aug. 29, and the first monthly instalment would be due by the end of September. Source: Bloomberg NewsWhile this has encouraged expectations at SoFi for its student loan origination volumes to reaccelerate in the fourth quarter, elevated borrowing costs could thwart its optimism. Specifically, the interest rate on new undergraduate student loans starting July 1 will rise from 4.99% to 5.5% – the highest level since 2013 – while the cost of new graduate student loans increase from the current 6.54% to 7.05% and PLUS loans surge above 8% from the current 7.54%. This is also consistent with management’s caution about “a lower monetization level” on student loan originations given the currently elevated borrowing cost environment.What was contemplated in our full year guide is that, the moratorium would end on June 30. And then people would go back into repayment 60 days thereafter, which means that we would see elevated demand for student loan originations in Q4, albeit at a lower monetization level given where interest rates are. We do think that there is still a large TAM that we can go after, given where we can price the loans today. So we do expect to see an uptick in demand, but probably not to the levels that we saw back in Q4 of 2019. Source: SoFi 1Q23 Earnings Call TranscriptRecall that the high interest rate offered by SoFi on member deposits are primarily supported by fees and borrowing cost spreads on loan origination volumes, as well as gains on their subsequent sale. But expectations for persistent weakness in home and student loan origination volumes, alongside increased risks to the durability of lending capacity to support personal loan market share gains could impact SoFi’s broader borrowing cost funding structure, and add pressure to its ability in sustaining a 4.2% interest rate on member savings accounts over the near-term. This could potentially trigger a downward spiral given already fraught confidence in the broader financial sector and weigh on SoFi’s valuation prospects.The Bottom LineAlthough SoFi's stock currently trades at a substantial discount to its fintech peers at about 2x estimated sales, despite a robust double-digit growth profile, it is priced in line with multiples observed across the broader loan origination industry. This underscores cautious investor sentiment in the stock, and reflects the market’s recognition of SoFi’s loan origination and sales reliant growth profile, which is vulnerable to tightening credit conditions and looming recession risks.Considering the largely weak sentiment over the broader financial sector, and the rapid pace of confidence erosion observed across smaller scale financial institutions in recent months, the current risk situation facing SoFi’s core lending business, though nascent, leaves us incrementally cautious of its near-term fundamental and valuation prospects. While SoFi’s current market value at 2x estimated sales is on the low end relative to its fintech peers and near its own historical lows, the metric is in line compared to the loan origination-heavy industry’s valuation multiples. The risk-reward proposition in the stock at current levels remains low in our opinion until SoFi can exhibit greater signs of durability to the broader company’s growth – inclusive of its financial services and technology platform segments – alongside alleviation of lending capacity risks, starting with consistent progress in maintaining loan origination volume growth acceleration, and the achievement of GAAP net income profitability by year-end.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9970670293,"gmtCreate":1684421487012,"gmtModify":1684421586036,"author":{"id":"3576020759762496","authorId":"3576020759762496","name":"corns","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b06686284d0422e054cbbc0d6963bf","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576020759762496","authorIdStr":"3576020759762496"},"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970670293","repostId":2336314138,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}