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June 2023 Non-Farm Payrolls Report - What The Fed Will Do

seekingalpha2023-07-08

Thanakorn Lappattaranan The stronger ADP National Employment Report for June, released a day before the non-farm payrolls report, confused markets. It smashed expectations by nearly double consensus ...

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Chris333
·2023-07-08
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It smashed expectations by nearly double consensus ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615765-june-2023-non-farm-payrolls-report-what-fed-will-do\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>June 2023 Non-Farm Payrolls Report - What The Fed Will Do</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJune 2023 Non-Farm Payrolls Report - What The Fed Will Do\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-08 00:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615765-june-2023-non-farm-payrolls-report-what-fed-will-do><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Thanakorn Lappattaranan The stronger ADP National Employment Report for June, released a day before the non-farm payrolls report, confused markets. It smashed expectations by nearly double consensus ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615765-june-2023-non-farm-payrolls-report-what-fed-will-do\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"MPW","symbol_name":"Medical Properties Trust","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615765-june-2023-non-farm-payrolls-report-what-fed-will-do","article_id":"2349196209","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455906418/image_1455906418.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2349196209","pubTimestamp":1688748356,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Thanakorn Lappattaranan The stronger ADP National Employment Report for June, released a day before the non-farm payrolls report, confused markets. 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It smashed expectations by nearly double consensus estimates. In stark contrast, the NFP increase by 209,000 fell short of the 225,000 consensus. Traders will thrive from the market's seesawing reaction to both reports. Investors, who typically buy and hold, then sell when the investment is at full value, benefit from reviewing the jobs report in more detail. Readers will find trends in the job report. Later this month, the NFP will weigh on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy decision. Unemployment Unchanged at 3.6% The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment grew by 209,000 in June 2023. The unemployment rate was at 3.6%. The report highlighted the uptrend in job growth in government, healthcare, social assistance, and construction. Some readers would not appreciate the jump in government jobs. This increases the need to raise income taxes down the road, hurting disposable income. Still, jobs are growing faster in other areas on a month-over-month basis: BLS Job growth is strongest in service-providing industries. In addition, private education and health services and total private jobs outpaced government job growth. Investors should expect continued spending from the Department of Defense. For example, Pratt & Whitney secured a $5.5 billion Air Force contract modification on July 3, 2023. Despite that, Raytheon Technologies (RTX) shares continued to trend lower. Markets are unwilling to pay more than $100 a share for RTX stock. The Pentagon approved the sale of Lockheed Martin's (LMT) F-35 fighter jets to the Czech Republic. The deal is worth up to $5.62 billion. LMT stock is stuck in a range of around $430-$460. Readers might speculate that Ukraine's counteroffensive will end its war with Russia. As the planning phase continues, this outcome will likely come later instead of sooner. The BLS softened the increase of 60,000 government jobs by noting that government employment is below its pre-pandemic Feb. 2020 level by 161,000, or by 0.7%. Health Care Job Growth Healthcare added 41,000 jobs in the month. Hospitals added 15,000 jobs. Investors may not reliably correlate jobs in this sector to picking drug manufacturers, emerging biotechnology, or healthcare REITs. Most notably, pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE) stock is below its pandemic high. It does not have tailwinds from COVID vaccines or antivirals to boost revenue. Instead, it's acquiring companies to deepen its drug pipeline. Revenue acceleration from new products could take years to play out. AbbVie (ABBV) is another giant. However, management cited an unexpected increase in IPR&D and milestone expenses. This will hurt its GAAP earnings per share by 15 cents. Trading 40% lower in the last year, Medical Properties Trust (MPW), a healthcare facilities REIT, is on the mend. Its tenant, Prospect Medical, completed $375 million in financing. Prospect's rental payment will alleviate fears of Medical Properties posting a revenue shortfall. NFP Report Impact on Interest Rates Strong job growth and moderate inflation rates are not enough to dissuade the Fed from raising interest rates this month. The CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 94.9% chance of the target rate at 525-550. CME FedWatch Will stock markets fall when money market funds pay up to 5.5% risk-free? These rates should discourage dividend income investors from buying companies whose stock yields less than 5.0% to 5.25% (current target rate). Still, tax rates on dividends in non-retirement accounts are lower than that paid on interest income. Additionally, stocks that rise will offer capital gains. Investors who pick undervalued firms with generous dividend yields might outperform the markets. Altria (MO) bottomed below $44 and traded recently at $46.27. MO stock has a dividend yield of 8.16%. Verizon (VZ) traded as low as $33.72 before rebounding in the last month. Shares have a dividend that yields 7.03%. AT&T (T) is an exception. While shares yield 6.99% in dividends, the chief financial officer warned that Q2 subscriber additions are likely to be below estimates. Elevated inflation hurts real income. Consumers may cut back on mobile services. This would lead to a price war among telecoms. The reduced free cash flow would at minimum prevent those firms from raising dividends or buying back shares. Your Takeaway The solid NFP report will give the Fed comfort in raising interest rates. It wants to slow the economy enough to lower inflation rates. With low unemployment, the job market is tight. Investors might want to lighten up on bond positions in a higher-rate environment.  Despite unfavorable valuations, the positive stock market sentiment shows no sign of reversing. The NFP report does not give a reason to sell in a panic just yet.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":195514186743832,"gmtCreate":1688770491261,"gmtModify":1688783950322,"author":{"id":"3579388224725414","authorId":"3579388224725414","name":"Chris333","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579388224725414","idStr":"3579388224725414"},"htmlText":"Like the analysis","listText":"Like the analysis","text":"Like the analysis","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/195514186743832","repostId":2349196209,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2349196209","pubTimestamp":1688748356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2349196209?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-07-08 00:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"June 2023 Non-Farm Payrolls Report - What The Fed Will Do","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2349196209","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Thanakorn Lappattaranan The stronger ADP National Employment Report for June, released a day before the non-farm payrolls report, confused markets. It smashed expectations by nearly double consensus e","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture><img height=\"1025px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455906418/image_1455906418.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455906418/image_1455906418.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455906418/image_1455906418.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455906418/image_1455906418.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455906418/image_1455906418.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455906418/image_1455906418.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455906418/image_1455906418.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455906418/image_1455906418.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455906418/image_1455906418.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Thanakorn Lappattaranan</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The stronger ADP National Employment Report for June, released a day before the non-farm payrolls report, confused markets. It smashed expectations by nearly double consensus estimates. In stark contrast, the NFP increase by 209,000 fell short of<span> the 225,000 consensus</span><span>. Traders will thrive from the market's seesawing reaction to both reports.</span></p> <p>Investors, who typically buy and hold, then sell when the investment is at full value, benefit from reviewing the jobs report in more detail. Readers will find trends in the job report. Later this month, the NFP will weigh on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy decision.</p> <h2>Unemployment Unchanged at 3.6%</h2> <p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment grew by 209,000 in June 2023. The unemployment rate was at 3.6%. The report highlighted the uptrend in job growth in government, healthcare, social assistance, and construction. Some readers would not appreciate<span> the jump in government jobs. This increases the need to raise income taxes down the road, hurting disposable income. Still, jobs are growing faster in other areas on a month-over-month basis:</span></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/7/71188-1688745762663612.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>BLS</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Job growth is strongest in service-providing industries. In addition, private education and health services and total private jobs outpaced government job growth.</p> <p>Investors should expect continued spending from the Department of Defense. For example, Pratt &amp; Whitney secured a $5.5 billion Air Force contract modification on July 3, 2023. Despite that, Raytheon Technologies (RTX) shares continued to trend lower. Markets are unwilling to pay more than $100 a share for RTX stock.</p> <p>The Pentagon approved the sale of Lockheed Martin's (LMT) F-35 fighter jets to the Czech Republic. The deal is worth up to $5.62 billion. LMT stock is stuck in a range of around $430-$460.</p> <p>Readers might speculate that Ukraine's counteroffensive will end its war with Russia. As the planning phase continues, this outcome will likely come later instead of sooner.</p> <p>The BLS softened the increase of 60,000 government jobs by noting that government employment is below its pre-pandemic Feb. 2020 level by 161,000, or by 0.7%.</p> <h2>Health Care Job Growth</h2> <p>Healthcare added 41,000 jobs in the month. Hospitals added 15,000 jobs. Investors may not reliably correlate jobs in this sector to picking drug manufacturers, emerging biotechnology, or healthcare REITs. Most notably, pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE) stock is below its pandemic high. It does not have tailwinds from COVID vaccines or antivirals to boost revenue. Instead, it's acquiring companies to deepen its drug pipeline. Revenue acceleration from new products could take years to play out.</p> <p>AbbVie (ABBV) is another giant. However, management cited an unexpected increase in IPR&amp;D and milestone expenses. This will hurt its GAAP earnings per share by 15 cents.</p> <p>Trading 40% lower in the last year, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPW\">Medical Properties Trust</a> (MPW), a healthcare facilities REIT, is on the mend. Its tenant, Prospect Medical, completed $375 million in financing. Prospect's rental payment will alleviate fears of Medical Properties posting a revenue shortfall.</p> <h2>NFP Report Impact on Interest Rates</h2> <p>Strong job growth and moderate inflation rates are not enough to dissuade the Fed from raising interest rates this month. The CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 94.9% chance of the target rate at 525-550.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/7/71188-16887457615670464.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>CME FedWatch</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Will stock markets fall when money market funds pay up to 5.5% risk-free? These rates should discourage dividend income investors from buying companies whose stock yields less than 5.0% to 5.25% (current target rate). Still, tax rates on dividends in non-retirement accounts are lower than that paid on interest income. Additionally, stocks that rise will offer capital gains.</p> <p>Investors who pick undervalued firms with generous dividend yields might outperform the markets. Altria (MO) bottomed below $44 and traded recently at $46.27. MO stock has a dividend yield of 8.16%. Verizon (VZ) traded as low as $33.72 before rebounding in the last month. Shares have a dividend that yields 7.03%.</p> <p>AT&amp;T (T) is an exception. While shares yield 6.99% in dividends, the chief financial officer warned that Q2 subscriber additions are likely to be below estimates. Elevated inflation hurts real income. Consumers may cut back on mobile services. This would lead to a price war among telecoms. The reduced free cash flow would at minimum prevent those firms from raising dividends or buying back shares.</p> <h2>Your Takeaway</h2> <p>The solid NFP report will give the Fed comfort in raising interest rates. It wants to slow the economy enough to lower inflation rates. With low unemployment, the job market is tight. Investors might want to lighten up on bond positions in a higher-rate environment.</p> <div></div> <p>Despite unfavorable valuations, the positive stock market sentiment shows no sign of reversing. The NFP report does not give a reason to sell in a panic just yet.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>June 2023 Non-Farm Payrolls Report - What The Fed Will Do</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJune 2023 Non-Farm Payrolls Report - What The Fed Will Do\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-08 00:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615765-june-2023-non-farm-payrolls-report-what-fed-will-do><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Thanakorn Lappattaranan The stronger ADP National Employment Report for June, released a day before the non-farm payrolls report, confused markets. It smashed expectations by nearly double consensus ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615765-june-2023-non-farm-payrolls-report-what-fed-will-do\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1455906418/image_1455906418.jpg","relate_stocks":{"IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999013999.USD":"UOB UNITED GLOBAL HEALTHCARE FUND (USDHDG) INC","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001176.SGD":"UOB UNITED GLOBAL HEALTHCARE \"SGD\" (ACC)","LU1989771016.USD":"东方汇理环球老龄化投资基金 A2 Acc","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LMT":"洛克希德马丁","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU1023059063.AUD":"BGF WORLD HEALTHSCIENCE \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","ABBV":"艾伯维公司","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU0289739699.SGD":"AB INTERNATIONAL HEALTH CARE PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1057294990.SGD":"Blackrock World Healthscience A2 SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BJT1NW94.SGD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","T":"美国电话电报","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0058720904.USD":"联博国际健康护理基金A","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","RTX":"雷神技术公司","PFE":"辉瑞","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","LU0122379950.USD":"贝莱德世界健康科学A2","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","LU1291159041.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Silver Age A2 Acc SGD-H","MO":"奥驰亚","BK4139":"生物科技","VZ":"威瑞森","MPW":"Medical Properties Trust","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","BK4588":"碎股","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","SGXZ57979304.SGD":"United Global Healthcare A Acc SGD-H","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","SG9999001176.USD":"United Global Healthcare Acc USD","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615765-june-2023-non-farm-payrolls-report-what-fed-will-do","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2349196209","content_text":"Thanakorn Lappattaranan The stronger ADP National Employment Report for June, released a day before the non-farm payrolls report, confused markets. It smashed expectations by nearly double consensus estimates. In stark contrast, the NFP increase by 209,000 fell short of the 225,000 consensus. Traders will thrive from the market's seesawing reaction to both reports. Investors, who typically buy and hold, then sell when the investment is at full value, benefit from reviewing the jobs report in more detail. Readers will find trends in the job report. Later this month, the NFP will weigh on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy decision. Unemployment Unchanged at 3.6% The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment grew by 209,000 in June 2023. The unemployment rate was at 3.6%. The report highlighted the uptrend in job growth in government, healthcare, social assistance, and construction. Some readers would not appreciate the jump in government jobs. This increases the need to raise income taxes down the road, hurting disposable income. Still, jobs are growing faster in other areas on a month-over-month basis: BLS Job growth is strongest in service-providing industries. In addition, private education and health services and total private jobs outpaced government job growth. Investors should expect continued spending from the Department of Defense. For example, Pratt & Whitney secured a $5.5 billion Air Force contract modification on July 3, 2023. Despite that, Raytheon Technologies (RTX) shares continued to trend lower. Markets are unwilling to pay more than $100 a share for RTX stock. The Pentagon approved the sale of Lockheed Martin's (LMT) F-35 fighter jets to the Czech Republic. The deal is worth up to $5.62 billion. LMT stock is stuck in a range of around $430-$460. Readers might speculate that Ukraine's counteroffensive will end its war with Russia. As the planning phase continues, this outcome will likely come later instead of sooner. The BLS softened the increase of 60,000 government jobs by noting that government employment is below its pre-pandemic Feb. 2020 level by 161,000, or by 0.7%. Health Care Job Growth Healthcare added 41,000 jobs in the month. Hospitals added 15,000 jobs. Investors may not reliably correlate jobs in this sector to picking drug manufacturers, emerging biotechnology, or healthcare REITs. Most notably, pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE) stock is below its pandemic high. It does not have tailwinds from COVID vaccines or antivirals to boost revenue. Instead, it's acquiring companies to deepen its drug pipeline. Revenue acceleration from new products could take years to play out. AbbVie (ABBV) is another giant. However, management cited an unexpected increase in IPR&D and milestone expenses. This will hurt its GAAP earnings per share by 15 cents. Trading 40% lower in the last year, Medical Properties Trust (MPW), a healthcare facilities REIT, is on the mend. Its tenant, Prospect Medical, completed $375 million in financing. Prospect's rental payment will alleviate fears of Medical Properties posting a revenue shortfall. NFP Report Impact on Interest Rates Strong job growth and moderate inflation rates are not enough to dissuade the Fed from raising interest rates this month. The CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 94.9% chance of the target rate at 525-550. CME FedWatch Will stock markets fall when money market funds pay up to 5.5% risk-free? These rates should discourage dividend income investors from buying companies whose stock yields less than 5.0% to 5.25% (current target rate). Still, tax rates on dividends in non-retirement accounts are lower than that paid on interest income. Additionally, stocks that rise will offer capital gains. Investors who pick undervalued firms with generous dividend yields might outperform the markets. Altria (MO) bottomed below $44 and traded recently at $46.27. MO stock has a dividend yield of 8.16%. Verizon (VZ) traded as low as $33.72 before rebounding in the last month. Shares have a dividend that yields 7.03%. AT&T (T) is an exception. While shares yield 6.99% in dividends, the chief financial officer warned that Q2 subscriber additions are likely to be below estimates. Elevated inflation hurts real income. Consumers may cut back on mobile services. This would lead to a price war among telecoms. The reduced free cash flow would at minimum prevent those firms from raising dividends or buying back shares. Your Takeaway The solid NFP report will give the Fed comfort in raising interest rates. It wants to slow the economy enough to lower inflation rates. With low unemployment, the job market is tight. Investors might want to lighten up on bond positions in a higher-rate environment.  Despite unfavorable valuations, the positive stock market sentiment shows no sign of reversing. The NFP report does not give a reason to sell in a panic just yet.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}