Apple’s stock extended its rally on Monday, closing at a record high, after Morgan Stanley analysts quantified the opportunity that lies ahead for the company as it expands in India.
Apple’s stock (ticker: AAPL) closed up 1.7% to $193.99 on Monday, the largest one-day percentage increase this month, marking four straight days of gains. It was the first record high since June 30.
In a Sunday note, Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring and his group, including Saurabh Mehta from the firm’s India team, reiterated an Overweight call, the equivalent of Buy, on Apple. The firm raised its price target to $220 from $190 earlier, implying that the stock could rise more than 15.5% from Friday’s close by July 2024.
Morgan Stanley’s bullish take stems from the firm’s estimate that India can add over 170 million new Apple users. The analysts say revenue from India can grow at a compounded annual rate of more than 20% to reach nearly $40 billion over the next 10 years. In 2022, revenue from India was almost $6 billion, according to unidentified sources cited by Reuters and Bloomberg in April, while Apple reported an overall total of $394 billion.
The forecast is based on data from Morgan Stanley’s new AlphaWise India Smartphone Survey, which polled more than 3,000 urban smartphone owners.
“The survey results positively surprised us,” the team wrote, saying more people intend to buy Apple phones as perceptions about the brand improve. The upshot is that Apple has an opportunity to win customers away from the Android operating system, they said.
An iPhone SE, one of the lowest-priced models, can cost about $600 in India based on current exchange rates, putting the phones in the premium segment of the market. That segment reached a double-digit share of the market, at 11% of India’s smartphone shipments, for the first time last year, according to Counterpoint Research data.
Apple’s India growth story took wings in April when the company opened its first store in Mumbai, followed by a New Delhi outlet. According to local media, government officials have proposed that Apple produce goods worth $50 billion a year in India over the next five to six years under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” program, which is intended to boost the manufacturing sector.
On a May call discussing Apple’s earnings, CEO Tim Cook said that he sees opportunity across the board, including in services, rather than only in iPhones, in India.
“Obviously, the average revenue per user are [much] lower in India for whether you’re talking about TV and movie streaming or music,” he said. “But if you look at it over a long arc of time, I think there’s a good opportunity across the board.”