Monetary policy will be in focus this week, as the Federal Reserve and other major central banks announce interest-rate decisions. Purchasing managers' indexes, housing data, and Instacart's highly anticipated initial public offering will be other highlights.
The Federal Open Market Committee concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday. Futures markets are overwhelmingly pricing in no change in the fed-funds rate, currently at 5.25%-5.50%. More attention may be paid to Fed officials' updated Summary of Economic Projections.
On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to raise its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 5.5%. Then, on Friday, the Bank of Japan is likely to keep its rate unchanged, at negative 0.1%. Last week, the European Central Bank raised its target interest rate for a 10th-straight time, by a quarter of a point, to 4%.
On Tuesday, the parent company of online grocery-delivery service Instacart is expected to begin trading under the ticker CART. The IPO comes a week after that of chip-designer Arm Holdings, which was reportedly massively oversubscribed.
Earnings reports this week will include AutoZone on Tuesday, FedEx on Wednesday, and Darden Restaurants on Thursday.
This week's economic calendar will feature the latest data on the U.S. housing market. The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September on Monday, the Census Bureau publishes residential construction data for August on Tuesday, and The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August on Thursday.
Finally, S&P Global will release its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes for September on Friday. Both are expected to hold close-to steady with their August levels, with a higher reading for services than manufacturing.
Monday 9/18
The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a 49 reading, one point less than in August.
Tuesday 9/19
AutoZone reports fourth-quarter fiscal-2023 results.
Maplebear, the parent company of online grocery-delivery service Instacart, is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq Exchange under the ticker CART. Instacart raised its offering price late last week to between $28 and $30 a share, up from $26 to $28 a share, after the successful initial public offering of chip designer Arm Holdings.
The Census Bureau reports residential construction data for August. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.44 million privately-owned housing starts, slightly less than in July.
Wednesday 9/20
FedEx and General Mills release earnings.
Boston Scientific hosts its 2023 investor day.
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. Wall Street is nearly unanimous in expecting the FOMC to hold the federal-funds rate steady at 5.25%-5.50%. By year end there is roughly a 40% chance of a quarter of a percentage point rate increase, bringing the federal-funds rate to 5.50%-5.75%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Thursday 9/21
Darden Restaurants and FactSet Research Systems hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.
The Bank of England announces its monetary-policy decision. Traders are pricing in a 70% that the central bank will raise its key short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 5.5%.
The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1 million homes sold, 30,000 more than in July. Existing-home sales are near their lowest level of the past decade.
The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for August. The consensus call is for a 0.4% month-over-month decline. The LEI, which attempts to track where the economy is heading, has fallen for 16 straight months. The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession later this year or in early 2024.
Friday 9/22
The Bank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision. The BOJ is expected to keep its target rate unchanged at negative 0.1%. Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda recently said that the central bank could have enough data by year end to determine whether it can end negative interest rates, according to the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper. Japan has had negative interest rates since early 2016.
S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes for September. Consensus estimates are for a 47.8 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 50.3 reading for the Services PMI. Both figures are roughly even with the August data, reinforcing the fact the services sector continues to hold up better than the manufacturing sector.
