Alibaba: 2 Catalysts Have Emerged To Drive The Stock Higher

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Alibaba: 2 Catalysts Have Emerged To Drive The Stock Higher

Seeking Alpha2023-11-14

Some undervalued companies can stay undervalued for far longer than we realize. Alibaba Group Holding Limited is one such company that has continued to disappoint investors despite looking very ...

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ZackChia
·2023-11-14
Baba?! Hahahaha no way
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sahrul40
·2023-11-14
Yes iam umderstand
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Alibaba Group Holding Limited is one such company that has continued to disappoint investors despite looking very cheaply valued.The announcement of a business split, the improving regulatory outlook in China, China's comeback from Covid woes, and the tech stock rally in 2023 have failed to lift Alibaba stock.Encouragingly, earnings revisions are moving in the right direction today, which is likely to trigger a strong up-move in the stock price.The investment thesis for Alibaba is centered around the recovery of the Chinese economy, the business separation creating value, Alibaba's leadership in high-growth markets, and share repurchases.I have been an Alibaba bull for more than two years now, and I have decided to add to my position today ahead of Wednesday's meeting between President Biden and Xi Jinping.Robert WayUndervalued companies can stay undervalued for far longer than we realize. This is a difficult-to-swallow truth, I know. When we identify a potentially undervalued company after conducting thorough research and investing in it at seemingly attractive prices, it is easy to be disheartened when the stock price goes nowhere over a long period.Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) is one such company that has continued to disappoint investors despite looking very cheaply valued in the market. The announcement of a business split, the improving regulatory outlook in China toward tech companies, China's comeback from Covid woes, and the strong tech stock rally in 2023 have surprisingly failed to boost BABA stock this year. As you can see from the below price chart, Alibaba stock has failed to maintain any momentum since September 2020 despite giving hopes of a breakthrough several times.Exhibit 1: Alibaba stock price chartData by YChartsI have been bullish on Alibaba for quite some time now. Back in December 2020, when there was no clarity surrounding the regulatory environment in China, I claimed investing in Alibaba was nothing short of a gamble on politics at the time. However, by mid-2021, I turned bullish on the company. Not surprisingly, my investment in BABA has returned disappointing returns so far. But, as a long-term-oriented investor, I remain confident in the potential for Alibaba stock to deliver market-beating returns in the long run (5+ years from now).After revisiting Alibaba, I have identified two catalysts that could boost the stock higher in the foreseeable future.The meeting between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping which is scheduled for November 15.The overwhelmingly positive earnings revisions in recent months.Before discussing the expected impact of the aforementioned developments on BABA stock, I will briefly revisit my investment thesis for Alibaba.Alibaba Has A Long Runway To GrowMy investment thesis for Alibaba is centered around several key assumptions.First, I expect the Chinese economy to continue to recover in the coming quarters, enabling Alibaba to thrive as retail consumption gets back on the right track. In the third quarter, China's economy grew 4.9% YoY, surpassing analyst expectations. Retail sales increased by 6.8% in the first 9 months of the year, while retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry, and recreational goods all showed positive trends. Online retail sales, a key determinant of the health of the Chinese economy, grew almost 12% YoY in the first 9 months of the year. All this points to a robust recovery of consumer spending in China despite the threat posed by lackluster investments in properties. The chart below highlights how retail sales have recovered after a slump between 2021 and mid-2022.Exhibit 2: Retail sales growth in China (YoY)Trading EconomicsSecond, I expect Alibaba's business separation to create value in the long term by enabling efficient capital allocation. It may take a few years following the split to see any improvements on this front, but I am confident Alibaba will emerge as a lean, more efficient business following the separation. The new business structure, once in full effect, should also make it easier for the company to navigate regulatory hurdles more efficiently as the business operations will have more transparency.Third, I expect Alibaba to remain the leader in several high-growth markets in China, including retail e-commerce (Taobao and Tmall), wholesale e-commerce (Alibaba), and cloud services (Alibaba Cloud). With all these end markets enjoying growth tailwinds, Alibaba's leading position should help the company earn economic profits over an extensive period. In Q2, Alibaba's revenue grew just over 5% YoY, marking the end of a 4-quarter period in which the company reported YoY declines in revenue. This, in my opinion, marks the beginning of Alibaba's return to growth.Finally, Alibaba is well-positioned to aggressively repurchase shares, which should unlock value for shareholders given my belief the company is significantly undervalued today. At the end of the second quarter, Alibaba's authorized share repurchase program - $40 billion through March 2025 - had a remaining capacity of approximately $16 billion. In the last three quarters, Alibaba has spent $3.05 billion, $10.88 billion, and $3.54 billion, respectively, to repurchase common shares. With Alibaba sitting on $75 billion in cash and expected to generate more than $20 billion in operating cash flows in the next 12 months, I believe the company will put its foot down on the pedal to accelerate the utilization of its share repurchase authorization.With this recap of my investment thesis for Alibaba, let's move on to discuss the catalysts that have emerged to drive Alibaba stock higher.There Is Reason for BABA Stock To Move Higher, FinallyIn my opinion, identifying catalysts that could drive a stock higher is fundamentally more challenging than identifying an undervalued company. Because undervalued companies can remain so for extended periods, it is important, as investors, to find catalysts that could bridge the gap between the perceived intrinsic value of a company and its market value.Today, Alibaba is well-positioned to benefit from two catalysts.First, President Biden is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in a couple of days, and I expect this meeting to clear the air between the two countries. According to U.S. officials, the below topics are slated to be discussed in the upcoming meeting.Israel-Hamas warTaiwanRussia-Ukraine warElection interference.In addition to these, I believe the two leaders will engage in discussions surrounding technological transfer and trade. The BBC cited a U.S. administrator saying:The goals here really are about managing the competition, preventing the downside of risk - of conflict, and ensuring channels of communication are open.It would be naive to expect this meeting to result in breakthrough developments that restore the relationship between the two nations, but I am optimistic that this meeting will steer the two countries in the right direction to manage geopolitical risks better, in a more diplomatic way. My optimism is based on the fact that the U.S. has tried to mend its relationship with China in recent times. For instance, last June, Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to China to meet with the Chinese President. Below is an excerpt from the official statement released by the Department of State following this visit.The two sides had candid, substantive, and constructive discussions on key priorities in the bilateral relationship and on a range of global and regional issues. The Secretary emphasized the importance of maintaining open channels of communication across the full range of issues to reduce the risk of miscalculation. He made clear that while we will compete vigorously, the United States will responsibly manage that competition so that the relationship does not veer into conflict. The Secretary stressed that the United States would continue to use diplomacy to raise areas of concern as well as areas of potential cooperation where our interests align.With the domestic regulatory landscape increasingly moving in the right direction, Alibaba stock will benefit from any favorable developments that may arise from the meeting between President Biden and Xi Jinping.Second, earnings revisions have been moving higher in the last few weeks, which I believe is a leading indicator of a change in investor sentiment toward a stock. Although earnings revisions do not directly impact stock prices in most cases, empirical evidence (refer to Prof. Eli Bartov's many studies) suggests there is a strong correlation between earnings revisions and stock price movements.Exhibit 3: EPS revision trendSeeking AlphaAs illustrated above, earnings revisions are moving higher after falling off a cliff since 2020. This, in my opinion, is likely to trigger a strong positive move from BABA.TakeawayAlibaba Group Holding Limited is on the verge of getting back into its growth groove, and the company is poised to benefit from two catalysts that could send its stock higher in the foreseeable future. I have been a BABA bull for more than two years now, and I have decided to add to my position today ahead of Wednesday's meeting between President Biden and Xi Jinping. Investing in Alibaba, however, may not be suitable for investors looking to make some quick bucks. I believe it will take a couple of years - at least - for my investment thesis to fully play out, which makes the company suitable for risk-seeking growth investors looking to beat the market.Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":241370165580072,"gmtCreate":1699956780631,"gmtModify":1699956805027,"author":{"id":"4088465576185570","authorId":"4088465576185570","name":"ZackChia","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90f82bfb7f8bb1e887247a1d0c7bef93","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088465576185570","authorIdStr":"4088465576185570"},"htmlText":"Baba?! Hahahaha no way","listText":"Baba?! Hahahaha no way","text":"Baba?! Hahahaha no way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/241370165580072","repostId":2383510360,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":241363195408640,"gmtCreate":1699955076388,"gmtModify":1699955304125,"author":{"id":"4162977392562472","authorId":"4162977392562472","name":"sahrul40","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ceec94728bb263ad62acb10293ea2b14","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4162977392562472","authorIdStr":"4162977392562472"},"htmlText":"Yes iam umderstand","listText":"Yes iam umderstand","text":"Yes iam umderstand","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/241363195408640","repostId":2383510360,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":18,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}