The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, U.S. housing market data, and the latest batch of corporate earnings will be this week’s highlights.
Out on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ November personal income and expenditures report will include the core personal-consumption expenditures price index. The Fed’s chosen inflation gauge is forecast to be 3.3% higher than a year ago, versus a 3.5% increase in the year through October.
Companies releasing quarterly results this week will include FedEx on Tuesday, then Micron Technology and General Mills on Wednesday. On Thursday, Nike, Carnival, Cintas, and CarMax all report.
Other economic data out this week will be focused on the U.S. housing market. Releases will include the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for December on Monday, the Census Bureau’s November housing starts on Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors’ existing-home sales for November on Wednesday, and the Census Bureau’s new-home sales data for November on Friday.
Monday 12/18
Heico reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results.
The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for a 36 reading, two points more than in November. The HMI is at its lowest figure since December 2022.
Tuesday 12/19
Accenture, FactSet Research Systems, and FedEx announce earnings.
The Bank of Japan announces its monetary policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep its key short-term interest rate at negative 0.1%. The BOJ might tweak its yield-curve control policy which aims for a target yield of 0% on Japanese 10-year bonds with a ceiling of 1%. Many strategists see this as a precursor to the BOJ ending both negative interest rates and the yield curve control policy in the first half of 2024. The yen has rallied about 6% against the U.S. dollar after hitting a multidecade low in mid-November.
The Census Bureau reports new residential construction statistics for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.37 million privately owned housing starts, about even with October.
Wednesday 12/20
General Mills and Micron Technology report quarterly results.
The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Economists forecast a 106.5 reading, 4.5 points higher than in November.
The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for November. The consensus call is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.77 million existing-homes sold, slightly fewer than in October. Existing-home sales are at their lowest level since 2010.
Thursday 12/21
CarMax, Carnival, Cintas, Nike, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss earnings.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its third and final estimate of third quarter gross domestic product growth. GDP growth is expected to remain unchanged from the second estimate of a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.2% released in late November. That was the fastest rate of growth since the fourth quarter of 2021.
The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.4% month-over-month decline. The LEI has declined for 19 straight months, and this usually signals a near-term recession, but the economy has proven much more resilient than many forecasters have assumed.
Friday 12/22
The BEA releases the Personal-Consumption Expenditures Price Index for November. Consensus estimate is for the PCE to increase 2.8% year over year, two-tenths of a percentage point less than in October. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to rise 3.3%, compared with a 3.5% gain in October. The annual change in the core PCE, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, is at its lowest level since April 2021.
The Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for manufactured durable goods are expected to increase 2.4% month over month to $286 billion.
The Census Bureau reports new home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 690,000 homes sold, slightly more than in October. New home sales have recently accounted for about 15% of the total home market, up from the historical average of 10%.
