The Market's Biggest Week Of The Year Is Already Here

Seeking Alpha01-29

The week of January 29 is crucial for the market's narrative, with earnings growth, fiscal and monetary policy, and economic data in focus.The US Treasury will announce its Marketable Borrowing ...

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nywles
·01-30
Thanks
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Manjab
·01-29
Looks likes earnings will be soft
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How important will this announcement be?Well, all one needs to do is go back to November 1 to see what happened to the Treasury curve in the aftermath of the months after the announcement. 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It could define the market's narrative over the next few months because it sets the stage for earnings growth and fiscal and monetary policy.This week alone, we get earnings from 5 of the Magnificent 7, an FOMC meeting, a slew of economic data, and the quarterly refunding announcement from the US Treasury. The last time this much information came forward was around the week of October 27, and of course, we all know what happened in the following weeks: a stock market melt-up into year-end, as rates plunged and financial conditions eased.January 29 - Borrowing EstimatesYou won't have to wait long for the news headline to start crossing your trading screen, either. By the afternoon of January 29, the US Treasury will announce its Marketable Borrowing Estimates. This is where the Treasury will lay out how much it expects it will need to borrow through the January to March 2024 quarter, at least as of the last update on October 29, the Treasury was estimating it would need to borrow $816 billion in privately-held net marketable debt for this quarter.January 30 - JOLTS / EarningsOn January 30, there will be data and earnings, with Job opening data in the morning where analysts expect job openings to total 8.709 million in December, down from 8.79 million in November. This is probably one of the most volatile data sets of the week and, historically, one of the hardest numbers for analysts to predict accurately. The Indeed job posting data clearly shows that the number of new job postings continues to decline and supports the weaker job opening data estimates. Of course, after the close on January 30, we will get earnings results from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG).St. Louis FedJanuary 31 - TreasuryJanuary 31 will be the big day, with the Quarterly Refunding Announcement before the start of the trading session, where the Treasury will lay out how it plans to issue debt. The big question is if it will be more front-loaded weighted towards bills, or will it be more backend load and weighted more toward issuing duration? This is a big question for debate and may ultimately also have a big say in where rates on the long end of the Treasury curve go, and in some regards, may even decide when and by how much the Fed plans to slow QT.How important will this announcement be? Well, all one needs to do is go back to November 1 to see what happened to the Treasury curve in the aftermath of the months after the announcement. On the morning of November 1, the Treasury decided to weight the issuance more towards the billing side of the equation, resulting in a huge drop in long-end rates, a massive easing of financial conditions, and a vast risk-on rally in stocks.BloombergHowever, one can argue that the conditions today may not be as favorable for the Treasury to weight issuance towards bills and may be more favorable to issue more duration this time. First, the yield curve structure has shifted materially since October 31, with Bills yielding less today than three months ago. Yields are now trading barely above the Fed's overnight repo facility rate of 5.3%.BloombergAdditionally, the repo facility has seen its cash level plunge since October 31 as well, as money market funds have opted to move cash away from the Fed Facility to the higher-yielding Treasury bill rates over the past three months, dropping by almost $600 billion, and down from a peak well over $2 trillion on May 31. If the Treasury opts to issue more bills as they did on November 1, it would likely mean that the repo facility is completely drained by the end of March, forcing the Fed to taper and potentially end QT sooner than planned. It would also mean that further issuance later in the year will need to find a new source of funds.BloombergAlso, the term-premium on the 10-year Treasury has dropped since November from around a positive 40 basis points to 0 basis points, with the nominal rate falling by around 80 bps over that time, suggesting it is much cheaper today to issue longer-term debt than three months ago.BloombergThe odds seem to favor issuing more debt on the coupon side of the equation this time than issuing more debt on the bill side. However, it also causes risk that rates on the back of the curve rise and cause the tightening of financial conditions. In either case, both outcomes seem to carry more risk this time than they did three months ago when it appeared that issuing more bills was the obvious choice, given the size of the repo facility and how much rates had climbed.January 31 - FOMCThe Fed meeting later that afternoon may not matter as much as what happens on the morning of January 31. But given the strength of the economic data this past week, despite the favorable inflation data, the Fed still needs to be careful not to cut rates too soon, given the risk that it could accelerate growth further and re-ignite inflation. More likely than not, the Fed will continue to fight the market on the timing around cuts and push back on the six rate cuts priced into the Fed Funds futures between now and January 29, 2025. The Fed is also likely to go back against cutting rates in March, which the market still assigned odds at a 50% chance.BloombergFebruary 1 - EarningsFebruary 1 will quickly shift the attention back to earnings, with Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META) all reporting results after the close of trading. The risks may be the highest for Meta, which has seen its stock surge sharply since the last time it reported results, while earnings estimates for the fourth and first quarters have flattened out completely. This means that the expansion of the earnings multiple has driven the entire rally in the stock and that expectations are high for continued acceleration in earnings growth, even though analysts do not see earnings improving further at this point.BloombergFebruary 2 - JobsOf course, the week will finish with the job report, where analysts forecast job growth to slow to 180,000 from 216,000 in December while the unemployment rate rises to 3.8% from 3.7%. But more importantly, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% m/m from 0.4% in December while rising by 4.1% y/y, flat with last month's growth rate.Interestingly, despite all this potentially market-moving news this coming week, the options market assigns the most significant risk to the jobs report on Friday, with implied volatility at its highest on February 2.BloombergIt may only be the final week of January. Still, we may look back at this week and see it as one of the significant turning points in the cycle, shifting the narrative of the last three months to something new and unexpected, as witnessed just three months ago.This is one week not to take a vacation.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":268464418586704,"gmtCreate":1706566124636,"gmtModify":1706566129280,"author":{"id":"3555362771681553","authorId":"3555362771681553","name":"nywles","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7e6473ec2cec348d167d7d95fbdb76c","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555362771681553","authorIdStr":"3555362771681553"},"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/268464418586704","repostId":2406017858,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":268258595414104,"gmtCreate":1706515722640,"gmtModify":1706515727897,"author":{"id":"3581993376196820","authorId":"3581993376196820","name":"Manjab","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581993376196820","authorIdStr":"3581993376196820"},"htmlText":"Looks likes earnings will be soft&nbsp;","listText":"Looks likes earnings will be soft&nbsp;","text":"Looks likes earnings will be soft","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/268258595414104","repostId":2406017858,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":29,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}