Super Tuesday is the primary season's busiest day, when voters in 15 states cast ballots on March 5 for their party's nominee for president and down-ballot races. It could also mark the end for Nikki Haley's long-shot bid to stop Donald Trump from securing the Republican nomination.
More than a third of all GOP delegates are up for grabs: Most of the states Tuesday award them on a winner-take-all basis, either statewide or by congressional district, if one candidate gets a majority. Even strong second-place finishes for Haley could result in no delegates.
Which states vote Tuesday?
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia and American Samoa will all hold nominating contests. (Alaska's is only for Republicans, while American Samoa's is just for Democrats.)
What will it mean for November?
The only general-election presidential battleground state in Tuesday's mix is North Carolina. The remainder are expected to either fall solidly Democratic or Republican. Analysts will be watching how different demographic groups in North Carolina support Trump and President Biden. The rapidly growing state has a mix of urban, suburban and rural voters, as well as college towns.
What are the stakes for Haley?
The former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador has committed to campaigning through Super Tuesday. She will have to assess whether to keep soldiering on, but has no campaign events scheduled after Monday. Her campaign says it raised $12 million in February, so she has gas in the tank. As of Sunday, however, her campaign didn't have any television ads booked for this week or beyond.
It is hard to imagine Haley finding enough support to slow Trump's march to the nomination after she failed to win any of the first five state nominating contests. She could be competitive in some of the more moderate states in play. In the days leading up to Super Tuesday, she is focusing on Minnesota, Colorado, Utah, Virginia, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine and Texas. Some of those states, such as Texas, aren't particularly moderate, but they award some of their delegates by congressional district, which might allow Haley to secure at least a few in urban or suburban areas.
Will Trump clinch the Republican nomination?
Trump won't be able to quite claim the nomination after Super Tuesday, but he is almost certain to be close. By a week or two later, following contests from March 12 through 19, he is likely to have the 1,215 delegates needed to secure the nomination. The former president has increasingly focused his attention on Biden.
What does Tuesday mean for Biden?
The president to date has won 206 delegates, which is all but two awarded so far. While he faces two primary challengers, neither has been a threat or earned any delegates. The two delegates he didn't win were associated with the "uncommitted" vote in Michigan's primary last Tuesday, representing protests from those angry over his support of Israel's military campaign against Hamas despite the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. While Biden is expected to easily win all the states voting Tuesday, efforts for additional protest voting are playing out in some of the coming states. Organizers in Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, Washington state and Minnesota have tried to get voters to cast protest ballots. However, not all those states have an "uncommitted" option, so the protests could be lodged through votes for other candidates or write-ins.
Iowa Democrats, meanwhile, will finally report their results after the national party moved the state from its traditional leadoff spot on the nominating calendar. They have been voting by mail since mid-January,
Why is California a big deal?
Haley has been able to pick up delegates in four states so far despite not winning any of them. The rules are becoming increasingly challenging for her, especially in a two-person race. Trump has the opportunity to start sweeping up entire states' delegate hauls. If he is able to win a majority of voters in California, he will win all 169 delegates.
The state also will be closely watched because of its spirited primary for U.S. Senate. While California is expected to elect a Democrat to fill its open Senate seat in November, the primary has become expensive and unpredictable with four big-name candidates vying for two open spots. Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is leading polls and is expected to get the first spot, but Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is running neck-and-neck for second place with Republican Steve Garvey, a former baseball star; Rep. Barbara Lee, also a Democrat, lags behind the top three in polling. Under the state's open primary system, the top two vote-getters Tuesday will face each other in a November runoff, regardless of party.
When do polls close?
Expect some results as early as 7 p.m. ET, when some polls close on the East Coast. Results will roll in throughout the night, with Alaska polls closing after midnight ET. If Trump and Biden hold wide leads as polls close, the races could be called by the Associated Press quickly, with remaining vote tallies coming in overnight. If a race is looking more competitive it could take longer.
What states vote before Tuesday?
While Tuesday is the main prize, several states had primaries in the lead-up on the GOP side. Michigan held its primary Tuesday for both parties, but Republicans didn't allocate all of their delegates, and the remaining group were distributed to Trump Saturday via convention. Trump also won Republican contests in Idaho and Missouri Saturday, while Haley secured her lone victory so far in the District of Columbia Sunday. North Dakota votes on Monday. Democrats have no primaries until Tuesday.