Why is sentiment improving in lithium majors?

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Why is sentiment improving in lithium majors?

LiveWire03-06

One of the earliest uses of lithium was medical. It was used as an anti-depressant. Nowadays, the tables are turned and far and away the largest use is batteries. As shown below, batteries gained ...

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As shown below, batteries gained ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-is-sentiment-improving-in-lithium-majors\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"livewire_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is sentiment improving in lithium majors?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is sentiment improving in lithium majors?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-06 12:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-is-sentiment-improving-in-lithium-majors><strong>LiveWire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>One of the earliest uses of lithium was medical. It was used as an anti-depressant. Nowadays, the tables are turned and far and away the largest use is batteries. As shown below, batteries gained ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-is-sentiment-improving-in-lithium-majors\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0198837287.USD","symbol_name":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-is-sentiment-improving-in-lithium-majors","article_id":"2417528166","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"livewire_stock","url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-is-sentiment-improving-in-lithium-majors","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2417528166","pubTimestamp":1709700531,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"livewire_stock","name":"Livewire Markets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"One of the earliest uses of lithium was medical. It was used as an anti-depressant. Nowadays, the tables are turned and far and away the largest use is batteries. As shown below, batteries gained tremendously over other uses of lithium around 2012, and especially since 2016.The latest US Geological Survey data shows that batteries continue to gain over other uses of lithium.Significantly, Australia retains the largest market share as a source of lithium, through our very large hard rock spodumene resources. The Australian market share of global lithium produced in 2023 was 46.8%, down a little from the peak in 2018, but still robust.Australia retains the largest global market share as a source of lithium albeit declining since 2018.While the lithium price remains volatile, it is clear from aggregate global production data that the demand is on a steep trajectory, especially with the growth in battery gigafactories.Global volume growth in lithium production has remained very strong sinc","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IGO.AU":"IGO LTD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","PLS.AU":"PILBARA MINERALS LTD","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU1861219969.SGD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LTM.AU":"Arcadium Lithium plc","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","BK7504":"锂钴概念","BK4093":"化肥与农用药剂","LTR.AU":"LIONTOWN RESOURCES LTD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK7507":"资源股","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","ALB":"美国雅保","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK7506":"金矿股","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","NEV":"Nuveen Enhanced Municipal Value","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数","MIN.AU":"MINERAL RESOURCES LTD","AZS.AU":"AZURE MINERALS LTD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","SQM":"智利矿业化工","LU1861214812.USD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"为什么锂专业的人气在改善？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AZS.AU":1,"ALB":1,"TSLA":1,"SQM":1,"PLS.AU":1,"NEV":1,"MIN.AU":1,"LTR.AU":1,"LTM.AU":1,"IGO.AU":1,"XKO.AU":0.9,"XJO.AU":0.9,"XAO.AU":0.9},"content_text":"One of the earliest uses of lithium was medical. It was used as an anti-depressant. Nowadays, the tables are turned and far and away the largest use is batteries. As shown below, batteries gained tremendously over other uses of lithium around 2012, and especially since 2016.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe latest US Geological Survey data shows that batteries continue to gain over other uses of lithium.\nSignificantly, Australia retains the largest market share as a source of lithium, through our very large hard rock spodumene resources. The Australian market share of global lithium produced in 2023 was 46.8%, down a little from the peak in 2018, but still robust.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAustralia retains the largest global market share as a source of lithium albeit declining since 2018.\nWhile the lithium price remains volatile, it is clear from aggregate global production data that the demand is on a steep trajectory, especially with the growth in battery gigafactories.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nGlobal volume growth in lithium production has remained very strong since 2016 due to electric vehicles.\nFrom the look of that chart, it is very clear that the industry underwent a profound change in the demand profile since 2016. That is the year in which the first Tesla gigafactory was built.\nThe other point of interest us the cyclicality of the year-on-year growth rate. There have been several periods of oversupply, which tended to correct in a period of two to three years. The last big such correction started in 2018 and bottomed around 2020.\nOur take is that the regulation of supply and demand primarily happens through the price level. This overshot to the upside from 2021 through mid 2023 following the slump that happened from 2018 through 2020 as a previous overshoot corrected.\nWhat likely matters most now is which firms remain profitable on a cash basis as markets clear and the growth trajectory settles for a year or two. For these reasons, we maintain our focus on established mineral producers, with the explorers likely overcooked at this point.\nThe Big Five Vertically Integrated Players\nIn an earlier wire, The lithium gravy train adds an M&A dining car, we covered the M&A boom in emerging lithium developers. In the eight months since, the frenzy culminated with a break in the Liontown Resources ASX: LTR deal due to blocking activity by Reinhart, and a successful deal with the takeover of Azure Minerals ASX: AZS by NYSE: SQM, in partnership with Mark Creasy and Gina Reinhart. The tempo has since slackened with weaker lithium prices.\nWhile many investors have still been chasing emerging developers, this climate, and the cyclical history of lithium markets, suggests a different strategy.\nIn our view, the derating of the producing majors as proceeded far enough to present very significant long-term value. As I mentioned above, the lithium market has had strong up cycles, lasting 3 to 5 years, followed by minor retrenchments of 1 to 3 years.\nWe are in such a period now.\nThe core strategy for the downswing in any commodity market is to focus on the last folks left standing, who are generally those with strong balance sheets at the bottom of the cost curve.\nThe best hard rock spodumene mine in the world is Greenbushes in Southwest, WA.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe largest Australian resources are in the hands of producing majors (orange), with two key emerging projects at Mt Holland (SQM and Wesfarmers) and Kathleen Valley (Liowntown Resources).\nThe important thing to understand about lithium is that there are five major global players in the upstream mining and midstream processing and conversion markets.\nThese are Albemarle NYSE: ALB, SQM NYSE: SQM,  Tianqi HKG: 9696, Ganfeng HKG:1772 and the recently merged Allkem and Livent, now listed as Arcadium ASX: LTM. The chart below highlights the relative market capitalisation in USD. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe Big Five vertically integrated players are shown in orange. They are all offshore companies.\nThe large local players Mineral Resources ASX: MIN, Pilbara Minerals ASX: PLS, and diversified battery minerals play IGO Ltd ASX: IGO, lurk just outside the top four, ahead of Arcadium.\nFirstly, it should be apparent from this chart why Allkem and Livent merged. Secondly, we can see how the pure play Pilbara Minerals is properly the domestic lithium king. The diversified asset base of Mineral Resources sets it apart from the big five, along with IGO Ltd.\nTo properly understand the likely next steps in the Australian market we need to play the parlour game: \"Pin the Mine on the Miner\" and hope you did not wind up with a donkey.\nReferring back to our diagram of the largest resources, it runs like this:\nGreenbushes: 49% Albemarle, 26.01% Tianqi, and 24.99% IGO Ltd (TLEA JV is 51% total)\nPilgangoora: 100% Pilbara Minerals\nMt Holland: 50% SQM and 50% Wesfarmers\nKathleen Valley: 100% Liontown Resources\nWodgina: 50% Mineral Resources and 50% Albemarle\nMt Marion: 50% Mineral Resources and 50% Ganfeng\nMt Caitlin: 100% Arcadium\nWhen you lay the market position out in this fashion, it ought to be clear that the global downstream and midstream electrochemical market is increasingly consolidated.\nI have not mentioned the battery chemicals firms, or the Li-ion battery makers. This market is even more consolidated with CATL SHE: 300750 and BYD HKG: 1211 controlling about 50% of the global lithium-ion battery market between them. Some analysts are predicting an erosion of market share as competition builds. The trend has been the opposite.\nWhen we look at the Big Five stock performance, the behaviour has been uniform.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe Big Five were all marked down heavily over the past eight months.\nPilbara Minerals is the only name up over one year. The larger players were marked down the most. This likely reflects an inventory adjustment.\nIn our view, once there is clear stability in the downstream battery market the character of the M&A activity will likely turn to further industry consolidation. This is the best way to achieve greater price stability in lithium, to help underwrite further industry expansion.\nThe Global EV Market Potential\nThe current size of the global vehicle market represents the potential for electric vehicles. The current penetration rate for EVs is only about 7% but is much higher in China. For 2023, the proportion of new car sales which were fully electric has been reported at 25%. \nChina reports what they call New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sales which includes hybrids. That rate of penetration, for full EV and hybrids, is running around 40%. Of course, as time goes on the rising penetration rate for EVs causes the China growth rate for EV sales to slow down.\nThis appears to be the reason why many analysts claim that the EV industry is slowing down.\nWhile the growth rate itself is slowing down, the aggregate vehicles sold continues to rise. This is just the math. The year-on-year growth rate slows, but a lower growth rate struck on a larger base means a great deal more EVs sold each year today, than even a few years ago.\nEstimates vary, but about 20 to 30% of the value of an electric vehicle is in the battery. The other factor to consider is the mix of vehicles, in respect of battery pack size.\nHowever, all things considered, we need to recognize that China is out in front as a market. Unit sales data from F&I for the top 25 global auto markets shows that emerging markets represent a larger unit sales volume market. China leads with 37.8% share.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nChina is far and away the largest global automotive market by unit sales volume.\nThe full OIC 2023 sales data will not be available for a while, but the estimated total sales for 2023 is close to 88M worldwide. This amounts to roughly 12% of the above total.\nThe data reporter EV Volumes puts global NEV sales at 14.1M units in 2023, or which 70% were fully electric vehicles. China volumes are around 5x times those in North America.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe global New Energy Vehicle (NEV) unit volumes are dominated by China. Source: EV Volumes.\nI am not the kind of investor who seeks approval from politicians. I am somebody who tries to be good at my job and to help those for whom I work, my clients.\nGiven this fundamental difference in motivation, and my own propensity for rational analysis, based on factual inputs, I remain bullish on the global EV market.\nWhat about the \"new three\" in China versus the Biden IRA in the USA?\nIt is fashionable for contemporary investors to myopically focus on what happens in the USA. We are supposed to believe that the Biden IRA will \"save\" Australia from China. This has been at the forefront of domestic discussion about the Critical Minerals Opportunity.\nRegular readers of my wires will appreciate that I don't share the bullish attitude of domestic Australian politicians about the USA filling any significant role for our commodities trade.\nThe USA is a large economy, but whatever it does produce is highly import dependent on the finished components that go into a US assembly line. This has not changed. Despite endless blather from the Australian government, the USA buys no meaningful quantity of rare earths outside of that is uses in petroleum refining catalysts.\nI did this topic to death in my wire: Where do the separated rare earths produced by Lynas actually go? In that article I proved that the average annual share of Lynas revenues that is attributable to buyers based in the USA was about 1.5% of their total.\nI could do this topic to death for a host of other commodities, but I won't bother.\nAnybody who chooses to ignore the data deserves the policy outcome coming their way.\nWhen the data has not changed, I don't change my analytical conclusion.\nChina leads demand for critical minerals, like lithium, because it dominates downstream manufacturing of the goods that need such minerals.\nAustralian politicians do not like this fact which is why they continue to pursue industry policies whose central objective enshrines their own public fantasy.\nThe result will be abject policy failure as surely as night follows day.\nChina is the market with near monopsony power to be the locomotive.\nSure, we love the USA, but the action there is in digital technology not manufacturing.\nTesla NASDAQ: TSLA may have been the global market leader but lost that crown in 2023 to the Chinese leader BYD HKG: 1211. China has the \"new three\" industries of solar panels, EVs, and energy storage systems. Western economists are often critical of Chinese government policy on the grounds that they are \"not like us\". Indeed, they are not.\nThe Chinese focus on the \"new three\" industries will likely see China completely dominate the capital goods component of the global energy transition.\nYou can dislike the fact that China has a considered policy on what to do about the global energy transition. However, this will not change the fact that China is executing to that plan.\nIn the opinion of this Western investor, it is the West that has a dire and growing problem.\nEven with the huge Biden Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits to new energy investment, we do not believe that the USA will be competitive, on price and quality, any time soon.\nThere is no meaningful dialogue in Western economies about \"what to do\" other than to foster protectionism with restraint of trade, tariffs, transfer payments and subsidies.\nFolks like me have seen this exact same movie before.\nThat period was called the 1970s Stagflation.\nWhile my views are not popular, I would urge that investment is not a popularity contest. Wise investors deploy capital where they expect a financial return.\nI anticipate handsome financial returns to those investors who deploy capital sensibly to commodities that China, specifically, is buying, and to those energy transition investments for which the capital goods inputs are Chinese.\nIn short, I am not somebody who is complaining about cheap Chinese solar panels.\nI am seeking out those entrepreneurs who are installing solar equipment in a business model based on shaving the large Balance of System (BoS) cost which is local origin.\nThis attitude has a name: it is called commerce, the idea of making a profit from activity.\nI will leave the political posturing to those who have no need to actually work for a living.\nPrognosis for the Lithium sector\nThe major market value of lithium product is batteries. These comprise 20 to 30% of value in the finished electric vehicle. This is an industry of global scale that is worth chasing.\nThe reality of our time is that China dominates this market, with high forward demand and a pathway to full penetration of NEVs by around 2040, but possibly earlier.\nThere is much chatter about a genuine slowdown in EV sales in Western nations. This is real and has happened due to the slow roll out of charging network support, buyer preference for large SUV vehicles, and the appetite for light commercial vehicles, primarily pick-ups.\nHowever, as much as we love the West, the West is not the biggest car market by volume.\nAssembly line capacity is driven by unit volume and time to manufacture each vehicle as it traverses the assembly line. Since China has a per-capita GDP of around $12K USD, which happens to be the global average, it will set the average price for a new EV sold.\nAnalytically, this must be lower than the average price of a car sold into Western markets.\nTherefore, what is most likely, is that China will do two things:\n\nSignificantly increase assembly line productivity to meet higher unit volumes.\nAggressively drive uptake of those cheaper EVs in emerging markets.\n\nFrom where I sit, it seems that China is executing well on this plan.\nThis likely means that Western politics will become more toxic than it already is, and we will see greatly increased protectionism to keep Chinese EV imports out.\nThe West will likely succeed in this goal because it is politically popular.\nThe natural result of this policy mix is that Western manufacturing will further lose competitive standing, as China proceeds with its present trajectory of yet more factory automation.\nSince I am not a politician, I am free to speak the truth of what will likely happen.\nChina is increasingly finding itself shut out of Western markets. \nSince the typical worker in China needs to eat, just as much as their Western counterpart, the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) will double down on advanced manufacturing.\nThis is the much-vaunted new productive focus.\nIn my opinion, this policy will very likely succeed because it is a classic technocratic solution to an obvious economic problem. The issue for China is to develop emerging markets.\nFor China to replace Western markets it needs to push the production frontier out on volume by a factor of two of three, and down on price by 50 - 80%.\nThis is the simple math on aggregate purchasing power in the emerging markets.\nOnly about 15% of the global population live in developed markets.\nThe other 85% live in emerging markets.\nTo the Western mind, emerging markets should always remain emerging markets. Since China is not like us, they do not think along these lines. For China to find a replacement for closed Western markets they need the emerging markets to develop.\nEvery overt policy signal from the CPC has said as much.\nCold hard technocratic economic logic dictates the same conclusion.\nI do not make policy in this world, but I can diagnose which policy is likely to work.\nGiven the basic math, the logic of China hugely expanding the production frontier on volume and down on price makes perfect economic sense. This program will stall if there are not good paying jobs in emerging markets, to earn the money to buy the products.\nChina is presently copying the 1970s playbook from Japan and doing exactly that. They are building EV factories in Brazil, Indonesia, Hungary and Mexico.\nOther nations are free to build plants in the same countries that will accept them. The net of this is that inbound Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to China is down to zero, while China is raising Outbound Direct Investment (ODI), into other countries.\nThis is what any rational economist would predict.\nThis is presently happening across the battery minerals complex. \nChina invested heavily in Indonesian nickel to lower the price point for higher volumes.\nThey already did that in cobalt and have long since been doing that in rare earths.\nThey are now doing that in lithium.\nThis is an explicit volume strategy to make revenue lost from Western markets with revenue won in emerging markets. Since the buyer operates at a lower price point, this goal is not possible without the conscious pursuit of a volume strategy.\nI am a rational investor. \nPolitics is a profession reserved for those who cannot earn a living by acting rationally. I don't have this handicap, so I only act in a rational fashion.\nWhatever squawking may emanate from Canberra, this investor can see the writing on the wall. The winning strategy in lithium is to comprehend the Chinese playbook.\nIn global commodities trade, China exerts monopsony power.\nThis means that they are the dominant buyer.\nIn lithium, the players that are best positioned are those who can face the monopsony buyer and exercise their right to withhold production volume.\nThat is precisely what happened late last year with Tianqi at Greenbushes.\nI won't belabor the point, but everything happening right now in the lithium market is rational. The Big Five are rational players, and so they are going slow on purchasing to clear inventory. We will know when that inventory has cleared because Tianqi will resume its quota.\nSome might call this a conspiracy.\nIf you think it is a conspiracy, then maybe you were never in the hula hoop business carrying massive unsold hula hoops at the end of a local primary school hula hoop boom.\nIt is the same with lithium.\nAt this moment, we have not gotten the Tianqi signal on Greenbushes offtake.\nI am happy to step in front of that, as all of the signals from the Big Five have lined up around their own clear understanding of how their own market operates. They have chosen to limit offtake below quota when agreements permit and to curtail expansion plans.\nDue to the heavily concentrated nature of this market, that will be enough to balance it.\nAmong the Big Five we mentioned, our favored two are SQM and Albemarle.\nThese look like good entry levels to us, although the daily price is volatile.\nOur favoured pure play is Pilbara Minerals.\nOur secondary play is IGO Ltd, although it is weighed down by the weak nickel market.\nOur top target for future M&A is Liontown Resources.\nOnce the Kathleen Valley mine is built, the suitors will likely be back.\nThere is no rocket science to these investment views. Lithium is a cyclical mineral with a very strong future growth market. The cure for the present lower prices is lower prices.\nThe angst about Chinese EVs being shut out of Western markets simply means that China will switch attention to selling cheaper cars, in greater unit volume, into emerging markets.\nThe consequent fall in finished Li-ion battery price will drive further demand.\nI don't make long-term price volume forecasts for lithium, but if I did, I would be upgrading those as a natural consequence of this market condition.\nIn short, I am a lithium bull once more and I am buying shares in the majors.\nHappy investing and good luck finding a politician who can make your country a great one.\nPhoto by MiningWatch Portugal on Unsplash\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? 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