MW Oil prices pull back on easing worries over Middle East
By Myra P. Saefong and William Watts
Weaker refinery margins could pose obstacle to further crude gains: analysts
Oil futures declined on Monday, pulling back after a gain of nearly 5% last week, as concerns eased over risks to crude supplies in the Middle East.
Israel said it withdrew more soldiers from southern Gaza. News reports said both Israel and Hamas had sent delegations to Cairo for cease-fire talks.
Price moves
West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for May delivery CL.1 CLK24 fell $1.45, or 1.7%, to $85.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.June Brent crude BRN00 BRNM24, the global benchmark, was down $1.39, or 1.5%, at $89.78 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.May gasoline RBK24 shed 1.6% to $2.7449 a gallon, white May heating oil HOK24 lost 2.2% to $2.7123 a gallon.Natural gas for May delivery NGK24 traded at $1.823 per million British thermal units, up 2.1%.
Market drivers
On Monday, oil prices declined on hopes that the conflict in the Middle East will calm down with progress in the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, said Samer Hasn, market analyst at XS.com, in emailed commentary.
Oil surged last week on fears of a more direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, with Brent topping $90 a barrel for the first time since October. Tehran had vowed to retaliate for an Israeli strike on Iran's embassy in Syria that killed senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders.
"Geopolitical risks have certainly grown, particularly when it comes to Israel and Iran, which has left the market nervous. However, any premium priced into the market will eventually erode in the absence of any escalation," said Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson, commodity strategists at ING, in a note.
Strong economic data, including a much stronger-than-expected rise in March U.S. nonfarm payrolls, also boosted oil futures last week, with WTI rising 4.5% and Brent gaining 4.8%.
On Monday, data from Germany showed larger-than-expected growth in February industrial production and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index climbed in April, according to news reports.
The upbeat economic data, particularly from the U.S., however, have led to a "reawakening" of fears about higher-for-longer interest rates, which "may disrupt the upward path of energy markets that are counting on a broad reduction in interest rates around the world this year to stimulate demand and economic activity," Hasn said.
On the demand side, refinery margins have weakened with the recent move higher in crude oil, the ING strategists wrote. "In order for this rally to be sustained (in the absence of supply disruptions or ratcheting up in geopolitical risks), we need to see refinery margins strengthening with crude oil," they wrote.
Need to Know: The energy sector's on a tear. But $100 oil is not likely, says Goldman Sachs.
-Myra P. Saefong -William Watts
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April 08, 2024 10:28 ET (14:28 GMT)
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