Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF is struggling even as the U.S. stock market has jumped this year, with the fund unlikely to catch a bid until the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, according to DataTrek Research.
The exchange-traded fund is "heavily weighted towards struggling disruptive tech themes that have yet to return to their winning pandemic ways, even as the S&P and Nasdaq just made all-time highs," said Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek, in a note emailed Friday.
Shares of the ARK Innovation ETF ARKK - which is managed by Wood, ARK Investment Management's founder and chief executive - are down more than 13% so far this year, according to FactSet data, at last check. By contrast, the S&P 500 SPX and technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP were both posting year-to-date gains of nearly 11%, after each index closed at a record peak on May 15.
The ARK Innovation ETF, which is a proxy for speculative technology stocks in the U.S., is "extremely volatile and its one-year performance relative to the S&P looks like a rollercoaster back to its inception in 2014," Rabe noted.
DataTrek highlighted the ETF's top holdings in the table below.
The ETF's largest 10 holdings represent about 60% of its weight, with seven of the equities down this year, according to the DataTrek note. Three of the fund's top 10 exposures are unprofitable - including Roku Inc. (ROKU), Roblox Corp. $(RBLX)$ and Crispr Therapeutics $(CRSP)$ - "while the rest trade very rich to the S&P on average," Rabe said.
The S&P 500 was trading down modestly Friday afternoon at around 5,288 points, though the widely followed index was still on track for a fourth straight week of gains, FactSet data show, at last check. The ARK Innovation ETF was up 0.8% on Friday afternoon for a month-to-date gain of around 4.3%.
One thing the ARK Innovation ETF's top 10 holdings have in common is that they all peaked during the COVID-19 pandemic, Rabe found.
"We don't see ARKK's names catching a bid until the Fed starts cutting rates and yields move sustainably lower to help support their hefty valuations," she wrote, citing the ticker for the ETF.
"As we have said many times over the last few years, we prefer the Nasdaq Composite" or Nasdaq-100 index NDX tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust Series I QQQ "as better ways to play the theme of disruptive innovation," Rabe added.
A spokesperson for Wood and her firm didn't immediately provide comment on the performance of the ARK Innovation ETF.
Many investors expect the Fed may begin lowering its benchmark rate later this year, with federal-funds futures pointing to a potential first cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Meanwhile, U.S. stocks have rallied this month amid a decline in Treasury yields. The S&P 500 is up 5.1% so far in May, while the Nasdaq has advanced 6.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA has gained 5.6%, according to FactSet data, at last check.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y was trading around 4.42% on Friday afternoon.