Super Micro Computer: Time To Load Up

seekingalpha06-07

Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue ...

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WealthBuilder
·06-07
Dell and HPE latest result already tell us SMCI will do well in next QR
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romanc9
·06-07
As for PLTR who has good result but a whack down by fund managers and analysts.. Us exchange is a casino controlled by you all should know who...
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href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0130103400.USD","symbol_name":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up","article_id":"2441715935","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2441715935","pubTimestamp":1717765299,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking 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earnings showed tripled revenue and quadrupled adjusted EPS, indicating robust operating leverage.SMCI demonstrates exemplary working capital management amid surging revenue, indicating high-quality strategic and tactical decision-making within the company.My valuation analysis suggests that there is an 85% upside potential.JHVEPhotoInvestment thesisMy previous bullish thesis about Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) did not age well from the share price movement perspective. The stock plunged by around 23% since March 1, the broader market's dynamic was much better over the same period.On the other hand, the stock market is a voting machine over the short term, as Warren Buffett said. Thus, if we look from the perspective of fundamentals and secular trends, my thesis keeps up well because SMCI continues demonstrating strength across all key fundamental criteria. The company delivered a strong quarter, the management's guidance improved, the demand for the company's offerings is booming and will likely stay elevated for longer. The stock became extremely undervalued after the last three months' weakness. All in all, I reiterate my \"Strong Buy\" rating for SMCI.Recent developmentsSMCI released its fiscal Q3 earnings on April 30, slightly missing revenue forecasts. On the other hand, the bottom-line beat was solid. Revenue tripled on a YoY basis and the adjusted EPS quadrupled. The fact that the bottom-line outpaced revenue growth is a strong bullish sign to me, indicating robust operating leverage of the company. Strong operating leverage is vital for investors because with a high probability, we can expect that future revenue growth will create more value for shareholders.Seeking AlphaThe company's free cash flow [FCF] was negative in Q3 because the company invested heavily in inventory to meet surging demand. Despite negative FCF, SMCI's balance sheet is still a fortress, with $2 billion in cash. Total debt is lower than the cash balance and does not look significant compared to the $45 billion market cap. Liquidity metrics are in great shape, making SMCI well-equipped to continue investing in growth and meeting surging demand for its offerings.Seeking AlphaI do not consider growing inventory levels as a problem because the inventory balance's linear chart moves approximately in line with surging revenues. Moreover, according to the below chart, current inventory turnover days are lower than 2021-2022. Therefore, working capital management is robust in SMCI, which is a quite challenging task when revenue grows exponentially. Therefore, I praise the management for its exceptional capital allocation and working capital management.Data by YChartsThe management also raised its guidance for fiscal Q4 and the full fiscal year 2024. Fiscal Q4 earnings release is scheduled for August 8th, and there were 10 upward EPS revisions over the last 90 days. I pay a lot of attention to the sentiment because Wall Street analysts are reputable professionals with access to extensive data and analytics. Therefore, these ten upward EPS revisions mean to me that analysts see strong underlying business momentum.Seeking AlphaRevenue is expected to be $5.3 billion, 135% higher on a YoY basis. The adjusted EPS is forecasted at $8.10, more than twice higher YoY. Sequential growth also looks impressive, with a 38% QoQ topline growth and a 22% QoQ increase in adjusted EPS. There are a few strong reasons that make me share the optimism of the company's management and among Wall Street analysts.Nvidia's latest staggering earnings together with strong guidance is the number one reason that makes me bullish about SMCI's prospects in the foreseeable future. The two companies have a strong technological partnership and SMCI is really rapid in introducing new products which are compatible with NVDA's solutions.For example, on June 4, SMCI introduced rack scale plug-and-play liquid-cooled AI SuperClusters for NVIDIA Blackwell and NVIDIA HGX H100/H200. Let me remind you, that NVDA presented its Blackwell family on March 18, 2024. This means that it took less than three months for SMCI to upgrade its products to match the new features of the Blackwell platform. I am not an expert in GPUs and AI servers, but SMCI's pace of adapting to NVIDIA's developments is staggering and likely gives it a strong competitive advantage.SMCI's latest earnings presentationAnother reason why I am bullish is that technological cloud giants are boosting their investments in data centers, meaning that the demand for AI servers' hardware will remain elevated for longer. Amazon's (AMZN) AWS recently announced that it will invest up to $35 billion in Virginia data centers by 2040. The world's leading cloud company not only invests in the U.S. data centers but also expands internationally. AWS also recently announced that it will invest around 16 billion euros in data centers across Spain, and there are also plans to invest in Italian data centers. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) are also investing billions in data centers and AI startups. If you type \"Microsoft/Google plan to invest billions in data center\" into your search engine, you will see dozens of news articles about these giants planning to invest heavily in data centers worldwide. Therefore, I expect the demand for AI servers to be strong over the next several years.Valuation updateSMCI rallied by 258% over the last twelve months and by 182% YTD. Valuation ratios are high compared to historical averages and the sector median. On the other hand, SMCI has strong AI exposure, which is not incorporated in historical averages. Moreover, not all sector companies have the same exposure to AI. Therefore, comparing SMCI's multiples to the sector median and historical averages appears to be unfair in current circumstances. Therefore, let me compare SMCI's valuation ratios to other hot AI stocks like NVDA and AMD. They are not peers or competitors, but all three are perceived as the major AI darlings.Seeking AlphaSMCI is not only cheaper than NVDA but also substantially cheaper compared to AMD, a company facing several fundamental challenges. Therefore, from valuation ratios, SMCI looks attractively valued to me.I consider the discounted cash flow [DCF] approach to be the most reliable for aggressive growth stocks. SMCI's total debt is insignificant compared to its market cap. Therefore, I use the cost of equity as a discount rate. Cost of equity is calculated below using the CAPM formula. All assumptions for my CAPM calculations are publicly available on the Internet.Author's calculationsThus, the model will be discounted using an 11.93% discount rate. I rely on consensus revenue estimates, which are available for the entire next decade, projecting a 22.8% CAGR. On a TTM basis, SMCI's FCF margin was negative due to heavy investments in inventory to meet surging demand. Therefore, for the base year, I incorporate a zero FCF margin. The adjusted EPS is expected by consensus to jump by 101.4% in FY2024 and by 42% in FY2025. Therefore, I think that incorporating at least 100 basis points yearly expansion for FCF margin is conservative enough.Seeking AlphaWith all these assumptions, my DCF model suggests that the business's fair value is $84 billion. This is 85% higher than the current market capitalization, meaning that the stock is substantially undervalued.Author's calculationsRisks to considerThe substantial volatility of recent months in most AI-exposed stocks shows that the \"AI hangover\" can be tough. SMCI itself is an extremely volatile stock, with its last month's share price range spanning between around $750 and $950. Investors who eventually decide to opt in should be ready for this extreme volatility. For a stock like SMCI sharp downside swings are normal as well. If you are not ready to tolerate this roller coaster, I recommend staying away and seeking less volatile opportunities.When we speak about the overall AI hardware infrastructure market, we have to realize that growth is never linear. While I am highly confident that generative AI is a true disruptive technology that will eventually become the new golden standard, the industry will certainly face challenges during its growth path. Therefore, SMCI's revenue and earnings will also experience some cyclicality in the future, and these temporary dips in demand are difficult to predict. Potential investors have to understand that SMCI will not double its revenue every year, and some phases of revenue growth deceleration or even stagnation are inevitable. However, these will likely be temporary slowdowns before new growth waves.Bottom lineTo conclude, SMCI's stock is still a \"Strong Buy\". The stock is extremely cheap based on my DCF analysis, despite the fundamentals improving substantially. Recent NVDA's earnings release suggests that AI momentum is far from cooling, which also adds to my optimism about SMCI.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":314311741681912,"gmtCreate":1717767601939,"gmtModify":1717768821074,"author":{"id":"4171803256903022","authorId":"4171803256903022","authorIdStr":"4171803256903022","name":"WealthBuilder","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4171803256903022"},"htmlText":"Dell and HPE latest result already tell us &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;SMCI will do well in next QR","listText":"Dell and HPE latest result already tell us &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;SMCI will do well in next QR","text":"Dell and HPE latest result already tell us SMCI will do well in next QR","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314311741681912","repostId":2441715935,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2441715935","pubTimestamp":1717765299,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2441715935?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-07 21:01","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Super Micro Computer: Time To Load Up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2441715935","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue an","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company&#39;s fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue and quadrupled adjusted EPS, indicating robust operating leverage.</p></li><li><p>SMCI demonstrates exemplary working capital management amid surging revenue, indicating high-quality strategic and tactical decision-making within the company.</p></li><li><p>My valuation analysis suggests that there is an 85% upside potential.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e678235f3d3a4c30f6900e649543eed9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>JHVEPhoto</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3918742298\">Investment thesis</h2><p>My previous bullish thesis about Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) did not age well from the share price movement perspective. The stock plunged by around 23% since March 1, the broader market&#39;s dynamic was much better over the same period.</p><p>On the other hand, the stock market is a voting machine over the short term, as Warren Buffett said. Thus, if we look from the perspective of fundamentals and secular trends, my thesis keeps up well because SMCI continues demonstrating strength across all key fundamental criteria. The company delivered a strong quarter, the management&#39;s guidance improved, the demand for the company&#39;s offerings is booming and will likely stay elevated for longer. The stock became extremely undervalued after the last three months&#39; weakness. All in all, I reiterate my &#34;Strong Buy&#34; rating for SMCI.</p><h2 id=\"id_1805109556\">Recent developments</h2><p>SMCI released its fiscal Q3 earnings on April 30, slightly missing revenue forecasts. On the other hand, the bottom-line beat was solid. Revenue tripled on a YoY basis and the adjusted EPS quadrupled. The fact that the bottom-line outpaced revenue growth is a strong bullish sign to me, indicating robust operating leverage of the company. Strong operating leverage is vital for investors because with a high probability, we can expect that future revenue growth will create more value for shareholders.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/659a3f2710188bc2b2a4832a8870bc19\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"205\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>The company&#39;s free cash flow [FCF] was negative in Q3 because the company invested heavily in inventory to meet surging demand. Despite negative FCF, SMCI&#39;s balance sheet is still a fortress, with $2 billion in cash. Total debt is lower than the cash balance and does not look significant compared to the $45 billion market cap. Liquidity metrics are in great shape, making SMCI well-equipped to continue investing in growth and meeting surging demand for its offerings.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2cb7cedbfbd0b90e6688bfa4ac03fa2f\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"428\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>I do not consider growing inventory levels as a problem because the inventory balance&#39;s linear chart moves approximately in line with surging revenues. Moreover, according to the below chart, current inventory turnover days are lower than 2021-2022. Therefore, working capital management is robust in SMCI, which is a quite challenging task when revenue grows exponentially. Therefore, I praise the management for its exceptional capital allocation and working capital management.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8282517a340fb95d853265fb3146c9ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>The management also raised its guidance for fiscal Q4 and the full fiscal year 2024. Fiscal Q4 earnings release is scheduled for August 8th, and there were 10 upward EPS revisions over the last 90 days. I pay a lot of attention to the sentiment because Wall Street analysts are reputable professionals with access to extensive data and analytics. Therefore, these ten upward EPS revisions mean to me that analysts see strong underlying business momentum.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7594a495b90fe7982127766d389b64ec\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"201\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>Revenue is expected to be $5.3 billion, 135% higher on a YoY basis. The adjusted EPS is forecasted at $8.10, more than twice higher YoY. Sequential growth also looks impressive, with a 38% QoQ topline growth and a 22% QoQ increase in adjusted EPS. There are a few strong reasons that make me share the optimism of the company&#39;s management and among Wall Street analysts.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s latest staggering earnings together with strong guidance is the number one reason that makes me bullish about SMCI&#39;s prospects in the foreseeable future. The two companies have a strong technological partnership and SMCI is really rapid in introducing new products which are compatible with NVDA&#39;s solutions.</p><p>For example, on June 4, SMCI introduced rack scale plug-and-play liquid-cooled AI SuperClusters for NVIDIA Blackwell and NVIDIA HGX H100/H200. Let me remind you, that NVDA presented its Blackwell family on March 18, 2024. This means that it took less than three months for SMCI to upgrade its products to match the new features of the Blackwell platform. I am not an expert in GPUs and AI servers, but SMCI&#39;s pace of adapting to NVIDIA&#39;s developments is staggering and likely gives it a strong competitive advantage.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/afa1c83911aba8e2b8abee8c1d67155f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\"/></p><p>SMCI&#39;s latest earnings presentation</p><p></p><p>Another reason why I am bullish is that technological cloud giants are boosting their investments in data centers, meaning that the demand for AI servers&#39; hardware will remain elevated for longer. Amazon&#39;s (AMZN) AWS recently announced that it will invest up to $35 billion in Virginia data centers by 2040. The world&#39;s leading cloud company not only invests in the U.S. data centers but also expands internationally. AWS also recently announced that it will invest around 16 billion euros in data centers across Spain, and there are also plans to invest in Italian data centers. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) are also investing billions in data centers and AI startups. If you type &#34;Microsoft/Google plan to invest billions in data center&#34; into your search engine, you will see dozens of news articles about these giants planning to invest heavily in data centers worldwide. Therefore, I expect the demand for AI servers to be strong over the next several years.</p><h2 id=\"id_3119923319\">Valuation update</h2><p>SMCI rallied by 258% over the last twelve months and by 182% YTD. Valuation ratios are high compared to historical averages and the sector median. On the other hand, SMCI has strong AI exposure, which is not incorporated in historical averages. Moreover, not all sector companies have the same exposure to AI. Therefore, comparing SMCI&#39;s multiples to the sector median and historical averages appears to be unfair in current circumstances. Therefore, let me compare SMCI&#39;s valuation ratios to other hot AI stocks like NVDA and AMD. They are not peers or competitors, but all three are perceived as the major AI darlings.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee6b5ac9f13066b4175a9d91b0d329ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>SMCI is not only cheaper than NVDA but also substantially cheaper compared to AMD, a company facing several fundamental challenges. Therefore, from valuation ratios, SMCI looks attractively valued to me.</p><p>I consider the discounted cash flow [DCF] approach to be the most reliable for aggressive growth stocks. SMCI&#39;s total debt is insignificant compared to its market cap. Therefore, I use the cost of equity as a discount rate. Cost of equity is calculated below using the CAPM formula. All assumptions for my CAPM calculations are publicly available on the Internet.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/db95e6be02ea478d5f42673365e055e5\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"116\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p></p><p>Thus, the model will be discounted using an 11.93% discount rate. I rely on consensus revenue estimates, which are available for the entire next decade, projecting a 22.8% CAGR. On a TTM basis, SMCI&#39;s FCF margin was negative due to heavy investments in inventory to meet surging demand. Therefore, for the base year, I incorporate a zero FCF margin. The adjusted EPS is expected by consensus to jump by 101.4% in FY2024 and by 42% in FY2025. Therefore, I think that incorporating at least 100 basis points yearly expansion for FCF margin is conservative enough.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af716ae994a0ba0003f3ebba1a4ebdf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"196\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>With all these assumptions, my DCF model suggests that the business&#39;s fair value is $84 billion. This is 85% higher than the current market capitalization, meaning that the stock is substantially undervalued.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12f549682c6e3756bc3c690094324e5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2759626987\">Risks to consider</h2><p>The substantial volatility of recent months in most AI-exposed stocks shows that the &#34;AI hangover&#34; can be tough. SMCI itself is an extremely volatile stock, with its last month&#39;s share price range spanning between around $750 and $950. Investors who eventually decide to opt in should be ready for this extreme volatility. For a stock like SMCI sharp downside swings are normal as well. If you are not ready to tolerate this roller coaster, I recommend staying away and seeking less volatile opportunities.</p><p>When we speak about the overall AI hardware infrastructure market, we have to realize that growth is never linear. While I am highly confident that generative AI is a true disruptive technology that will eventually become the new golden standard, the industry will certainly face challenges during its growth path. Therefore, SMCI&#39;s revenue and earnings will also experience some cyclicality in the future, and these temporary dips in demand are difficult to predict. Potential investors have to understand that SMCI will not double its revenue every year, and some phases of revenue growth deceleration or even stagnation are inevitable. However, these will likely be temporary slowdowns before new growth waves.</p><h2 id=\"id_631941744\">Bottom line</h2><p>To conclude, SMCI&#39;s stock is still a &#34;Strong Buy&#34;. The stock is extremely cheap based on my DCF analysis, despite the fundamentals improving substantially. Recent NVDA&#39;s earnings release suggests that AI momentum is far from cooling, which also adds to my optimism about SMCI.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Super Micro Computer: Time To Load Up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuper Micro Computer: Time To Load Up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-07 21:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","SMCI":"超微电脑","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2441715935","content_text":"Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue and quadrupled adjusted EPS, indicating robust operating leverage.SMCI demonstrates exemplary working capital management amid surging revenue, indicating high-quality strategic and tactical decision-making within the company.My valuation analysis suggests that there is an 85% upside potential.JHVEPhotoInvestment thesisMy previous bullish thesis about Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) did not age well from the share price movement perspective. The stock plunged by around 23% since March 1, the broader market's dynamic was much better over the same period.On the other hand, the stock market is a voting machine over the short term, as Warren Buffett said. Thus, if we look from the perspective of fundamentals and secular trends, my thesis keeps up well because SMCI continues demonstrating strength across all key fundamental criteria. The company delivered a strong quarter, the management's guidance improved, the demand for the company's offerings is booming and will likely stay elevated for longer. The stock became extremely undervalued after the last three months' weakness. All in all, I reiterate my \"Strong Buy\" rating for SMCI.Recent developmentsSMCI released its fiscal Q3 earnings on April 30, slightly missing revenue forecasts. On the other hand, the bottom-line beat was solid. Revenue tripled on a YoY basis and the adjusted EPS quadrupled. The fact that the bottom-line outpaced revenue growth is a strong bullish sign to me, indicating robust operating leverage of the company. Strong operating leverage is vital for investors because with a high probability, we can expect that future revenue growth will create more value for shareholders.Seeking AlphaThe company's free cash flow [FCF] was negative in Q3 because the company invested heavily in inventory to meet surging demand. Despite negative FCF, SMCI's balance sheet is still a fortress, with $2 billion in cash. Total debt is lower than the cash balance and does not look significant compared to the $45 billion market cap. Liquidity metrics are in great shape, making SMCI well-equipped to continue investing in growth and meeting surging demand for its offerings.Seeking AlphaI do not consider growing inventory levels as a problem because the inventory balance's linear chart moves approximately in line with surging revenues. Moreover, according to the below chart, current inventory turnover days are lower than 2021-2022. Therefore, working capital management is robust in SMCI, which is a quite challenging task when revenue grows exponentially. Therefore, I praise the management for its exceptional capital allocation and working capital management.Data by YChartsThe management also raised its guidance for fiscal Q4 and the full fiscal year 2024. Fiscal Q4 earnings release is scheduled for August 8th, and there were 10 upward EPS revisions over the last 90 days. I pay a lot of attention to the sentiment because Wall Street analysts are reputable professionals with access to extensive data and analytics. Therefore, these ten upward EPS revisions mean to me that analysts see strong underlying business momentum.Seeking AlphaRevenue is expected to be $5.3 billion, 135% higher on a YoY basis. The adjusted EPS is forecasted at $8.10, more than twice higher YoY. Sequential growth also looks impressive, with a 38% QoQ topline growth and a 22% QoQ increase in adjusted EPS. There are a few strong reasons that make me share the optimism of the company's management and among Wall Street analysts.Nvidia's latest staggering earnings together with strong guidance is the number one reason that makes me bullish about SMCI's prospects in the foreseeable future. The two companies have a strong technological partnership and SMCI is really rapid in introducing new products which are compatible with NVDA's solutions.For example, on June 4, SMCI introduced rack scale plug-and-play liquid-cooled AI SuperClusters for NVIDIA Blackwell and NVIDIA HGX H100/H200. Let me remind you, that NVDA presented its Blackwell family on March 18, 2024. This means that it took less than three months for SMCI to upgrade its products to match the new features of the Blackwell platform. I am not an expert in GPUs and AI servers, but SMCI's pace of adapting to NVIDIA's developments is staggering and likely gives it a strong competitive advantage.SMCI's latest earnings presentationAnother reason why I am bullish is that technological cloud giants are boosting their investments in data centers, meaning that the demand for AI servers' hardware will remain elevated for longer. Amazon's (AMZN) AWS recently announced that it will invest up to $35 billion in Virginia data centers by 2040. The world's leading cloud company not only invests in the U.S. data centers but also expands internationally. AWS also recently announced that it will invest around 16 billion euros in data centers across Spain, and there are also plans to invest in Italian data centers. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) are also investing billions in data centers and AI startups. If you type \"Microsoft/Google plan to invest billions in data center\" into your search engine, you will see dozens of news articles about these giants planning to invest heavily in data centers worldwide. Therefore, I expect the demand for AI servers to be strong over the next several years.Valuation updateSMCI rallied by 258% over the last twelve months and by 182% YTD. Valuation ratios are high compared to historical averages and the sector median. On the other hand, SMCI has strong AI exposure, which is not incorporated in historical averages. Moreover, not all sector companies have the same exposure to AI. Therefore, comparing SMCI's multiples to the sector median and historical averages appears to be unfair in current circumstances. Therefore, let me compare SMCI's valuation ratios to other hot AI stocks like NVDA and AMD. They are not peers or competitors, but all three are perceived as the major AI darlings.Seeking AlphaSMCI is not only cheaper than NVDA but also substantially cheaper compared to AMD, a company facing several fundamental challenges. Therefore, from valuation ratios, SMCI looks attractively valued to me.I consider the discounted cash flow [DCF] approach to be the most reliable for aggressive growth stocks. SMCI's total debt is insignificant compared to its market cap. Therefore, I use the cost of equity as a discount rate. Cost of equity is calculated below using the CAPM formula. All assumptions for my CAPM calculations are publicly available on the Internet.Author's calculationsThus, the model will be discounted using an 11.93% discount rate. I rely on consensus revenue estimates, which are available for the entire next decade, projecting a 22.8% CAGR. On a TTM basis, SMCI's FCF margin was negative due to heavy investments in inventory to meet surging demand. Therefore, for the base year, I incorporate a zero FCF margin. The adjusted EPS is expected by consensus to jump by 101.4% in FY2024 and by 42% in FY2025. Therefore, I think that incorporating at least 100 basis points yearly expansion for FCF margin is conservative enough.Seeking AlphaWith all these assumptions, my DCF model suggests that the business's fair value is $84 billion. This is 85% higher than the current market capitalization, meaning that the stock is substantially undervalued.Author's calculationsRisks to considerThe substantial volatility of recent months in most AI-exposed stocks shows that the \"AI hangover\" can be tough. SMCI itself is an extremely volatile stock, with its last month's share price range spanning between around $750 and $950. Investors who eventually decide to opt in should be ready for this extreme volatility. For a stock like SMCI sharp downside swings are normal as well. If you are not ready to tolerate this roller coaster, I recommend staying away and seeking less volatile opportunities.When we speak about the overall AI hardware infrastructure market, we have to realize that growth is never linear. While I am highly confident that generative AI is a true disruptive technology that will eventually become the new golden standard, the industry will certainly face challenges during its growth path. Therefore, SMCI's revenue and earnings will also experience some cyclicality in the future, and these temporary dips in demand are difficult to predict. Potential investors have to understand that SMCI will not double its revenue every year, and some phases of revenue growth deceleration or even stagnation are inevitable. However, these will likely be temporary slowdowns before new growth waves.Bottom lineTo conclude, SMCI's stock is still a \"Strong Buy\". The stock is extremely cheap based on my DCF analysis, despite the fundamentals improving substantially. Recent NVDA's earnings release suggests that AI momentum is far from cooling, which also adds to my optimism about SMCI.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":314306634539080,"gmtCreate":1717766433010,"gmtModify":1717766439097,"author":{"id":"4102495020619380","authorId":"4102495020619380","authorIdStr":"4102495020619380","name":"romanc9","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76bfe37245defa055adfff7453f1520f","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4102495020619380"},"htmlText":"As for PLTR who has good result but a whack down by fund managers and analysts.. Us exchange is a casino controlled by you all should know who...&nbsp;","listText":"As for PLTR who has good result but a whack down by fund managers and analysts.. Us exchange is a casino controlled by you all should know who...&nbsp;","text":"As for PLTR who has good result but a whack down by fund managers and analysts.. Us exchange is a casino controlled by you all should know who...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314306634539080","repostId":2441715935,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2441715935","pubTimestamp":1717765299,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2441715935?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-07 21:01","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Super Micro Computer: Time To Load Up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2441715935","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue an","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company&#39;s fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue and quadrupled adjusted EPS, indicating robust operating leverage.</p></li><li><p>SMCI demonstrates exemplary working capital management amid surging revenue, indicating high-quality strategic and tactical decision-making within the company.</p></li><li><p>My valuation analysis suggests that there is an 85% upside potential.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e678235f3d3a4c30f6900e649543eed9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>JHVEPhoto</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3918742298\">Investment thesis</h2><p>My previous bullish thesis about Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) did not age well from the share price movement perspective. The stock plunged by around 23% since March 1, the broader market&#39;s dynamic was much better over the same period.</p><p>On the other hand, the stock market is a voting machine over the short term, as Warren Buffett said. Thus, if we look from the perspective of fundamentals and secular trends, my thesis keeps up well because SMCI continues demonstrating strength across all key fundamental criteria. The company delivered a strong quarter, the management&#39;s guidance improved, the demand for the company&#39;s offerings is booming and will likely stay elevated for longer. The stock became extremely undervalued after the last three months&#39; weakness. All in all, I reiterate my &#34;Strong Buy&#34; rating for SMCI.</p><h2 id=\"id_1805109556\">Recent developments</h2><p>SMCI released its fiscal Q3 earnings on April 30, slightly missing revenue forecasts. On the other hand, the bottom-line beat was solid. Revenue tripled on a YoY basis and the adjusted EPS quadrupled. The fact that the bottom-line outpaced revenue growth is a strong bullish sign to me, indicating robust operating leverage of the company. Strong operating leverage is vital for investors because with a high probability, we can expect that future revenue growth will create more value for shareholders.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/659a3f2710188bc2b2a4832a8870bc19\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"205\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>The company&#39;s free cash flow [FCF] was negative in Q3 because the company invested heavily in inventory to meet surging demand. Despite negative FCF, SMCI&#39;s balance sheet is still a fortress, with $2 billion in cash. Total debt is lower than the cash balance and does not look significant compared to the $45 billion market cap. Liquidity metrics are in great shape, making SMCI well-equipped to continue investing in growth and meeting surging demand for its offerings.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2cb7cedbfbd0b90e6688bfa4ac03fa2f\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"428\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>I do not consider growing inventory levels as a problem because the inventory balance&#39;s linear chart moves approximately in line with surging revenues. Moreover, according to the below chart, current inventory turnover days are lower than 2021-2022. Therefore, working capital management is robust in SMCI, which is a quite challenging task when revenue grows exponentially. Therefore, I praise the management for its exceptional capital allocation and working capital management.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8282517a340fb95d853265fb3146c9ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>The management also raised its guidance for fiscal Q4 and the full fiscal year 2024. Fiscal Q4 earnings release is scheduled for August 8th, and there were 10 upward EPS revisions over the last 90 days. I pay a lot of attention to the sentiment because Wall Street analysts are reputable professionals with access to extensive data and analytics. Therefore, these ten upward EPS revisions mean to me that analysts see strong underlying business momentum.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7594a495b90fe7982127766d389b64ec\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"201\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>Revenue is expected to be $5.3 billion, 135% higher on a YoY basis. The adjusted EPS is forecasted at $8.10, more than twice higher YoY. Sequential growth also looks impressive, with a 38% QoQ topline growth and a 22% QoQ increase in adjusted EPS. There are a few strong reasons that make me share the optimism of the company&#39;s management and among Wall Street analysts.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s latest staggering earnings together with strong guidance is the number one reason that makes me bullish about SMCI&#39;s prospects in the foreseeable future. The two companies have a strong technological partnership and SMCI is really rapid in introducing new products which are compatible with NVDA&#39;s solutions.</p><p>For example, on June 4, SMCI introduced rack scale plug-and-play liquid-cooled AI SuperClusters for NVIDIA Blackwell and NVIDIA HGX H100/H200. Let me remind you, that NVDA presented its Blackwell family on March 18, 2024. This means that it took less than three months for SMCI to upgrade its products to match the new features of the Blackwell platform. I am not an expert in GPUs and AI servers, but SMCI&#39;s pace of adapting to NVIDIA&#39;s developments is staggering and likely gives it a strong competitive advantage.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/afa1c83911aba8e2b8abee8c1d67155f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\"/></p><p>SMCI&#39;s latest earnings presentation</p><p></p><p>Another reason why I am bullish is that technological cloud giants are boosting their investments in data centers, meaning that the demand for AI servers&#39; hardware will remain elevated for longer. Amazon&#39;s (AMZN) AWS recently announced that it will invest up to $35 billion in Virginia data centers by 2040. The world&#39;s leading cloud company not only invests in the U.S. data centers but also expands internationally. AWS also recently announced that it will invest around 16 billion euros in data centers across Spain, and there are also plans to invest in Italian data centers. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) are also investing billions in data centers and AI startups. If you type &#34;Microsoft/Google plan to invest billions in data center&#34; into your search engine, you will see dozens of news articles about these giants planning to invest heavily in data centers worldwide. Therefore, I expect the demand for AI servers to be strong over the next several years.</p><h2 id=\"id_3119923319\">Valuation update</h2><p>SMCI rallied by 258% over the last twelve months and by 182% YTD. Valuation ratios are high compared to historical averages and the sector median. On the other hand, SMCI has strong AI exposure, which is not incorporated in historical averages. Moreover, not all sector companies have the same exposure to AI. Therefore, comparing SMCI&#39;s multiples to the sector median and historical averages appears to be unfair in current circumstances. Therefore, let me compare SMCI&#39;s valuation ratios to other hot AI stocks like NVDA and AMD. They are not peers or competitors, but all three are perceived as the major AI darlings.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee6b5ac9f13066b4175a9d91b0d329ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>SMCI is not only cheaper than NVDA but also substantially cheaper compared to AMD, a company facing several fundamental challenges. Therefore, from valuation ratios, SMCI looks attractively valued to me.</p><p>I consider the discounted cash flow [DCF] approach to be the most reliable for aggressive growth stocks. SMCI&#39;s total debt is insignificant compared to its market cap. Therefore, I use the cost of equity as a discount rate. Cost of equity is calculated below using the CAPM formula. All assumptions for my CAPM calculations are publicly available on the Internet.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/db95e6be02ea478d5f42673365e055e5\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"116\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p></p><p>Thus, the model will be discounted using an 11.93% discount rate. I rely on consensus revenue estimates, which are available for the entire next decade, projecting a 22.8% CAGR. On a TTM basis, SMCI&#39;s FCF margin was negative due to heavy investments in inventory to meet surging demand. Therefore, for the base year, I incorporate a zero FCF margin. The adjusted EPS is expected by consensus to jump by 101.4% in FY2024 and by 42% in FY2025. Therefore, I think that incorporating at least 100 basis points yearly expansion for FCF margin is conservative enough.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af716ae994a0ba0003f3ebba1a4ebdf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"196\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>With all these assumptions, my DCF model suggests that the business&#39;s fair value is $84 billion. This is 85% higher than the current market capitalization, meaning that the stock is substantially undervalued.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12f549682c6e3756bc3c690094324e5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2759626987\">Risks to consider</h2><p>The substantial volatility of recent months in most AI-exposed stocks shows that the &#34;AI hangover&#34; can be tough. SMCI itself is an extremely volatile stock, with its last month&#39;s share price range spanning between around $750 and $950. Investors who eventually decide to opt in should be ready for this extreme volatility. For a stock like SMCI sharp downside swings are normal as well. If you are not ready to tolerate this roller coaster, I recommend staying away and seeking less volatile opportunities.</p><p>When we speak about the overall AI hardware infrastructure market, we have to realize that growth is never linear. While I am highly confident that generative AI is a true disruptive technology that will eventually become the new golden standard, the industry will certainly face challenges during its growth path. Therefore, SMCI&#39;s revenue and earnings will also experience some cyclicality in the future, and these temporary dips in demand are difficult to predict. Potential investors have to understand that SMCI will not double its revenue every year, and some phases of revenue growth deceleration or even stagnation are inevitable. However, these will likely be temporary slowdowns before new growth waves.</p><h2 id=\"id_631941744\">Bottom line</h2><p>To conclude, SMCI&#39;s stock is still a &#34;Strong Buy&#34;. The stock is extremely cheap based on my DCF analysis, despite the fundamentals improving substantially. Recent NVDA&#39;s earnings release suggests that AI momentum is far from cooling, which also adds to my optimism about SMCI.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Super Micro Computer: Time To Load Up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuper Micro Computer: Time To Load Up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-07 21:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","SMCI":"超微电脑","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2441715935","content_text":"Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue and quadrupled adjusted EPS, indicating robust operating leverage.SMCI demonstrates exemplary working capital management amid surging revenue, indicating high-quality strategic and tactical decision-making within the company.My valuation analysis suggests that there is an 85% upside potential.JHVEPhotoInvestment thesisMy previous bullish thesis about Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) did not age well from the share price movement perspective. The stock plunged by around 23% since March 1, the broader market's dynamic was much better over the same period.On the other hand, the stock market is a voting machine over the short term, as Warren Buffett said. Thus, if we look from the perspective of fundamentals and secular trends, my thesis keeps up well because SMCI continues demonstrating strength across all key fundamental criteria. The company delivered a strong quarter, the management's guidance improved, the demand for the company's offerings is booming and will likely stay elevated for longer. The stock became extremely undervalued after the last three months' weakness. All in all, I reiterate my \"Strong Buy\" rating for SMCI.Recent developmentsSMCI released its fiscal Q3 earnings on April 30, slightly missing revenue forecasts. On the other hand, the bottom-line beat was solid. Revenue tripled on a YoY basis and the adjusted EPS quadrupled. The fact that the bottom-line outpaced revenue growth is a strong bullish sign to me, indicating robust operating leverage of the company. Strong operating leverage is vital for investors because with a high probability, we can expect that future revenue growth will create more value for shareholders.Seeking AlphaThe company's free cash flow [FCF] was negative in Q3 because the company invested heavily in inventory to meet surging demand. Despite negative FCF, SMCI's balance sheet is still a fortress, with $2 billion in cash. Total debt is lower than the cash balance and does not look significant compared to the $45 billion market cap. Liquidity metrics are in great shape, making SMCI well-equipped to continue investing in growth and meeting surging demand for its offerings.Seeking AlphaI do not consider growing inventory levels as a problem because the inventory balance's linear chart moves approximately in line with surging revenues. Moreover, according to the below chart, current inventory turnover days are lower than 2021-2022. Therefore, working capital management is robust in SMCI, which is a quite challenging task when revenue grows exponentially. Therefore, I praise the management for its exceptional capital allocation and working capital management.Data by YChartsThe management also raised its guidance for fiscal Q4 and the full fiscal year 2024. Fiscal Q4 earnings release is scheduled for August 8th, and there were 10 upward EPS revisions over the last 90 days. I pay a lot of attention to the sentiment because Wall Street analysts are reputable professionals with access to extensive data and analytics. Therefore, these ten upward EPS revisions mean to me that analysts see strong underlying business momentum.Seeking AlphaRevenue is expected to be $5.3 billion, 135% higher on a YoY basis. The adjusted EPS is forecasted at $8.10, more than twice higher YoY. Sequential growth also looks impressive, with a 38% QoQ topline growth and a 22% QoQ increase in adjusted EPS. There are a few strong reasons that make me share the optimism of the company's management and among Wall Street analysts.Nvidia's latest staggering earnings together with strong guidance is the number one reason that makes me bullish about SMCI's prospects in the foreseeable future. The two companies have a strong technological partnership and SMCI is really rapid in introducing new products which are compatible with NVDA's solutions.For example, on June 4, SMCI introduced rack scale plug-and-play liquid-cooled AI SuperClusters for NVIDIA Blackwell and NVIDIA HGX H100/H200. Let me remind you, that NVDA presented its Blackwell family on March 18, 2024. This means that it took less than three months for SMCI to upgrade its products to match the new features of the Blackwell platform. I am not an expert in GPUs and AI servers, but SMCI's pace of adapting to NVIDIA's developments is staggering and likely gives it a strong competitive advantage.SMCI's latest earnings presentationAnother reason why I am bullish is that technological cloud giants are boosting their investments in data centers, meaning that the demand for AI servers' hardware will remain elevated for longer. Amazon's (AMZN) AWS recently announced that it will invest up to $35 billion in Virginia data centers by 2040. The world's leading cloud company not only invests in the U.S. data centers but also expands internationally. AWS also recently announced that it will invest around 16 billion euros in data centers across Spain, and there are also plans to invest in Italian data centers. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) are also investing billions in data centers and AI startups. If you type \"Microsoft/Google plan to invest billions in data center\" into your search engine, you will see dozens of news articles about these giants planning to invest heavily in data centers worldwide. Therefore, I expect the demand for AI servers to be strong over the next several years.Valuation updateSMCI rallied by 258% over the last twelve months and by 182% YTD. Valuation ratios are high compared to historical averages and the sector median. On the other hand, SMCI has strong AI exposure, which is not incorporated in historical averages. Moreover, not all sector companies have the same exposure to AI. Therefore, comparing SMCI's multiples to the sector median and historical averages appears to be unfair in current circumstances. Therefore, let me compare SMCI's valuation ratios to other hot AI stocks like NVDA and AMD. They are not peers or competitors, but all three are perceived as the major AI darlings.Seeking AlphaSMCI is not only cheaper than NVDA but also substantially cheaper compared to AMD, a company facing several fundamental challenges. Therefore, from valuation ratios, SMCI looks attractively valued to me.I consider the discounted cash flow [DCF] approach to be the most reliable for aggressive growth stocks. SMCI's total debt is insignificant compared to its market cap. Therefore, I use the cost of equity as a discount rate. Cost of equity is calculated below using the CAPM formula. All assumptions for my CAPM calculations are publicly available on the Internet.Author's calculationsThus, the model will be discounted using an 11.93% discount rate. I rely on consensus revenue estimates, which are available for the entire next decade, projecting a 22.8% CAGR. On a TTM basis, SMCI's FCF margin was negative due to heavy investments in inventory to meet surging demand. Therefore, for the base year, I incorporate a zero FCF margin. The adjusted EPS is expected by consensus to jump by 101.4% in FY2024 and by 42% in FY2025. Therefore, I think that incorporating at least 100 basis points yearly expansion for FCF margin is conservative enough.Seeking AlphaWith all these assumptions, my DCF model suggests that the business's fair value is $84 billion. This is 85% higher than the current market capitalization, meaning that the stock is substantially undervalued.Author's calculationsRisks to considerThe substantial volatility of recent months in most AI-exposed stocks shows that the \"AI hangover\" can be tough. SMCI itself is an extremely volatile stock, with its last month's share price range spanning between around $750 and $950. Investors who eventually decide to opt in should be ready for this extreme volatility. For a stock like SMCI sharp downside swings are normal as well. If you are not ready to tolerate this roller coaster, I recommend staying away and seeking less volatile opportunities.When we speak about the overall AI hardware infrastructure market, we have to realize that growth is never linear. While I am highly confident that generative AI is a true disruptive technology that will eventually become the new golden standard, the industry will certainly face challenges during its growth path. Therefore, SMCI's revenue and earnings will also experience some cyclicality in the future, and these temporary dips in demand are difficult to predict. Potential investors have to understand that SMCI will not double its revenue every year, and some phases of revenue growth deceleration or even stagnation are inevitable. However, these will likely be temporary slowdowns before new growth waves.Bottom lineTo conclude, SMCI's stock is still a \"Strong Buy\". The stock is extremely cheap based on my DCF analysis, despite the fundamentals improving substantially. Recent NVDA's earnings release suggests that AI momentum is far from cooling, which also adds to my optimism about SMCI.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}