September rate cut, 25- or 50-basis points? August jobs data can be the deciding factor

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September rate cut, 25- or 50-basis points? August jobs data can be the deciding factor

seekingalpha08-30

BNP Paribas said the size of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee will heavily depend upon the results of the August payrolls report. The financial institution ...

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August jobs data can be the deciding factor\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-30 21:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4145463-september-rate-cut-25-or-50-basis-points-august-jobs-data-can-be-the-deciding-factor><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BNP Paribas said the size of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee will heavily depend upon the results of the August payrolls report. 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The financial institution believes the Street will receive a 25-basis point cut but noted that a 50-basis point cut can be on the table depending on the jobs data. “While our base case is 25bp, the absence of a rebound in job growth and another increase in the unemployment rate would likely warrant a 50bp move,” BNP Paribas stated. In terms of estimates, BNP Paribas said it estimates that payrolls will rebound to 175K in the month of August from the 114K prior level and that Wall Street will watch the unemployment rate decline to 4.2%. “Such an outcome would be consistent with a 25bp rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, in our view.” According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September 18 FOMC meeting is at 67.5%, while that of a larger 50-basis point cut is at 32.5%. For investors looking to keep a pulse on the market, they may look towards exchange-traded funds that mirror the price movements of the benchmark averages, as well as the Treasury and fixed income funds. See some funds below: Market Tracking ETFs: (NYSEARCA:DIA), (DDM), (UDOW), (DOG), (DXD), (SDOW), (NYSEARCA:SPY), (VOO), (IVV), (RSP), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS), (SPXU), (NASDAQ:QQQ), (QQQM), (QLD), (TQQQ), (QID), and (SQQQ). Treasury ETFs: (TLT), (TLH), (IEF), (IEI), (SHY), (SGOV), (SCHO), and (BIL). Bond ETFs: (AGG), (BND), (VCIT), (MUB), (MBB), (JNK), (LQD), (HYG), and (TIP).","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"Economic Data","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}