August inflation data for the U.S. economy will be this week’s highlight, as the last major release before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. No surprises there would tee up a highly anticipated interest-rate cut.
Investors will also be watching earnings reports from Oracle on Monday, GameStop on Tuesday, and Adobe and Kroger on Thursday.
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the consumer price index for August. Economists are expecting to see an increase of 2.6% from a year earlier. The Fed has a 2% annual inflation target. Producer price data will be out on Thursday.
Other releases to watch will include a pair of sentiment surveys: the National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index for August on Tuesday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for September on Friday.
Finally, the European Central Bank is widely expected to lower its interest rate target on Thursday for the second time this year.
The top company release of the week will come on Monday when Apple will host its annual iPhone event. The event is expected to provide more details on Apple's Apple Intelligence AI platform.
The stage is set for what could be the pivotal moment in the campaign leading up to the November 5 U.S. presidential election – Tuesday night’s debate between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump.
Monday 9/9
Apple will host its annual iPhone event.
Oracle reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 results.
The Federal Reserve releases consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter to $5.08 trillion.
Tuesday 9/10
Academy Sports & Outdoors and GameStop announce earnings.
Harris, Trump will debate Tuesday in pivotal moment of campaign.
The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for August. Economists forecast a 93.7 reading, even with the July figure, which was the highest reading since February 2022, but still below the historical average.
Wednesday 9/11
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for August. Consensus estimate is for the CPI to increase 2.6% year over year, three-tenths of a percentage point less than in July. The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 3.2%, matching the July figure. The annual changes in the CPI and core CPI are at their lowest levels since the spring of 2021. The CPI release is the last major piece of economic data before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 17-18 and may determine whether the FOMC cuts the federal-funds rate by a quarter or half a percentage point at that meeting.
Thursday 9/12
Adobe and Kroger hold conference calls to discuss earnings.
The European Central Bank announces its monetary policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its key short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.5%. The ECB started its rate-cutting cycle in June, well before the FOMC, as euro-zone gross domestic product growth has been anemic.
The Federal Reserve releases its Financial Accounts of the U.S., which includes total household net worth data for the second quarter. Household net worth stood at a record $151.7 trillion at the end of the first quarter, an increase of $5 trillion from the end of 2023. With the S&P 500 index returning 4.3% in the second quarter and home prices still rising, it’s very likely household net worth will reach a record level.
The BLS releases the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 1.7% year-over-year increase in the PPI and a 2.4% rise in the core PPI. This compares to gains of 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively, in July.
Friday 9/13
The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for September. The consensus call is for a 68 reading, roughly even with the August data. Consumers’ expectations of the year ahead inflation was 2.8% in August, the lowest level since the end of 2020.
