September jobs data and several notable earnings reports will be this week's highlights. Investors and economists are on high alert for signs of economic and labor-market weakness and its implications for Federal Reserve policy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday. It's expected to show a roughly unchanged number of unfilled positions at the end of August compared with a month earlier.
The week's main event will be jobs Friday. Economists' consensus estimate is for an increase of 145,000 nonfarm payrolls in September, slightly more than in August. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. Americans' average hourly earnings are forecast to be up 3.8% from a year earlier.
Companies reporting earnings this week will include Carnival on Monday, Nike and McCormick on Tuesday, Conagra Brands and Levi Strauss on Wednesday, and Constellation Brands on Thursday.
Other economic data to watch this week will include the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for September on Tuesday and the Services equivalent on Thursday.
Monday 9/30
Carnival releases third-quarter fiscal 2024 results.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting in Nashville, Tenn. The theme for this year's confab is "Finding Harmony in the Noise: Transitioning to a New Normal."
The Institute for Supply Management releases the Chicago Business Barometer for September. Economists forecast a 46.4 reading, roughly even with the August figure.
Tuesday 10/1
Lamb Weston Holdings, McCormick, Nike, and Paychex announce earnings.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The consensus call is for 7.7 million job openings on the last business day of August, slightly more than in July. Job openings are still higher than the prepandemic average but well below the peak of 12.2 million from March of 2022. There are currently 1.07 job openings for every unemployed person, the lowest ratio since May 2021.
The ISM releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for September. Expectations are for a 47.7 reading, half a point more than in August.
Wednesday 10/2
Conagra Brands, Levi Strauss, and RPM International release quarterly results.
ADP releases its National Employment Report for September. Consensus estimate is for a 120,000 gain in private-sector employment, 21,000 more than in August. Job creation among private employers slowed for the fifth straight month in August according to ADP data.
Thursday 10/3
Constellation Brands holds a conference call to discuss second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings.
The ISM releases its Services PMI for September. The consensus call is for a 51.5 reading, which would match the August figure.
Friday 10/4
The BLS releases the jobs report for September. Economists forecast an increase of 145,000 nonfarm payrolls, 3,000 more than in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. While the prospects for inflation have brightened, the outlook for the labor market has darkened a bit. Jobs growth has slowed, with an average monthly gain of 116,333 over the past three months, compared with 225,200 in the first five months of this year.