Is Logility Supply Chain Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:LGTY) Trading At A 48% Discount?

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Is Logility Supply Chain Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:LGTY) Trading At A 48% Discount?

Simply Wall St.11-07

Key Insights Logility Supply Chain Solutions' estimated fair value is US$21.98 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of US$11.47 suggests Logility Supply Chain Solutions is...

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(NASDAQ:LGTY) Trading At A 48% Discount?","media":"Simply Wall St.","content":"<div>\n<p>Key Insights\n\n Logility Supply Chain Solutions' estimated fair value is US$21.98 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity \n Current share price of US$11.47 suggests Logility Supply Chain Solutions is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/logility-supply-chain-solutions-inc-103537001.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"yahoofinance","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Logility Supply Chain Solutions, Inc. 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(NASDAQ:LGTY) Trading At A 48% Discount?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-07 18:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/logility-supply-chain-solutions-inc-103537001.html><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key Insights\n\n Logility Supply Chain Solutions' estimated fair value is US$21.98 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity \n Current share price of US$11.47 suggests Logility Supply Chain Solutions is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/logility-supply-chain-solutions-inc-103537001.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BGHQF748.EUR","symbol_name":"GUINNESS GLOBAL MONEY MANAGERS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/logility-supply-chain-solutions-inc-103537001.html","article_id":"2481042976","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/gnGTQ_q9KCdl7Xvx_ppB0g--~B/aD00MzI7dz0xMTk0O2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/simply_wall_st__316/0fe4d5d105492213ce106a92b49639d4"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2481042976","pubTimestamp":1730975737,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"yahoofinance","name":"雅虎金融"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Logility Supply Chain Solutions' estimated fair value is US$21.98 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity. Current share price of US$11.47 suggests Logility Supply Chain Solutions is potentially 48% undervalued. Analyst price target for LGTY is US$16.00 which is 27% below our fair value estimate. Does the November share price for Logility Supply Chain Solutions, Inc.  reflect what it's really worth?Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow  model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. 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(NASDAQ:LGTY) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex. \n Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. \n See our latest analysis for Logility Supply Chain Solutions \n Step By Step Through The Calculation \n We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. \n Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: \n 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast \n\n\n\n\n2025\n2026\n2027\n2028\n2029\n2030\n2031\n2032\n2033\n2034\n\n\n Levered FCF ($, Millions) \nUS$14.0m\nUS$19.5m\nUS$23.8m\nUS$27.6m\nUS$31.0m\nUS$33.8m\nUS$36.3m\nUS$38.4m\nUS$40.3m\nUS$42.0m\n\n\nGrowth Rate Estimate Source\nAnalyst x1\nAnalyst x1\nEst @ 21.95%\nEst @ 16.15%\nEst @ 12.09%\nEst @ 9.25%\nEst @ 7.26%\nEst @ 5.87%\nEst @ 4.89%\nEst @ 4.21%\n\n\n Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8% \nUS$13.1\nUS$17.1\nUS$19.5\nUS$21.2\nUS$22.3\nUS$22.8\nUS$22.9\nUS$22.7\nUS$22.3\nUS$21.7\n\n\n\n(\"Est\" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$206m\n The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.8%. \nTerminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$42m× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (6.8%– 2.6%) = US$1.0b\nPresent Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.0b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)10= US$534m\n The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$740m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$11.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. \n\n\n\n  NasdaqGS:LGTY Discounted Cash Flow November 7th 2024\n \n\n The Assumptions \n The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Logility Supply Chain Solutions as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.014. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. \nSWOT Analysis for Logility Supply Chain Solutions\n\n\nStrength\n\nCurrently debt free.\n\n\nBalance sheet summary for LGTY.\n\n\n\nWeakness\n\nEarnings declined over the past year.\n\n\nDividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Software market.\n\n\n\nOpportunity\n\nAnnual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 2 years.\n\n\nTrading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.\n\n\n\nThreat\n\nDividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.\n\n\n Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.\n\n\nSee LGTY's dividend history.\n\n\n\n Next Steps: \n Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Logility Supply Chain Solutions, there are three pertinent factors you should further examine: \n\n Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Logility Supply Chain Solutions (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here. \nFuture Earnings: How does LGTY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.\n Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! \n\n PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.\nHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}