美国10月CPI出炉，美联储后续降息节奏怎么看？机构最新研判速览

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美国10月CPI出炉，美联储后续降息节奏怎么看？机构最新研判速览

第一财经11-14

美国劳工统计局11月13日公布的数据显示，美国10月CPI同比上涨2.6%，前值为2.4%；环比上涨0.2%。核心CPI同比上涨3.3%，前值为3.3%；环比上涨0.3%。美国10月通胀数据表现如何，对后续美联储降息节奏有何影响，机构最新研判来了：①中金：通胀温和，为美联储12月降息打开大门中金公司表示， 10月受飓风扰动而不及预期的非农叠加符合预期的通胀，至少为美联储12月降息打开了大门。但短期...

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What do you think of the pace of the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts? A quick overview of the latest research and judgment of institutions","themeId":"ee9b0d8230c3b5502da100e905c7c3ec","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"US7Y.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US10Y.BOND":1,"SPY":1,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"美国劳工统计局11月13日公布的数据显示，美国10月CPI同比上涨2.6%，前值为2.4%；环比上涨0.2%。核心CPI同比上涨3.3%，前值为3.3%；环比上涨0.3%。美国10月通胀数据表现如何，对后续美联储降息节奏有何影响，机构最新研判来了：①中金：通胀温和，为美联储12月降息打开大门中金公司表示， 10月受飓风扰动而不及预期的非农叠加符合预期的通胀，至少为美联储12月降息打开了大门。但短期因素的扰动也使得本月公布的就业与通胀可能不会成为影响美联储12月的降息决策的最关键数据，仍应密切关注12月会议前公布的最后一份非农与通胀，如果双双超出预期，美联储也或保留“跳过”12月降息的灵活性。②华泰证券：10月通胀整体符合预期，12月继续降息的概率仍较大华泰证券表示，美国10月通胀整体符合预期，商品通胀和住房外的其他核心服务回落带动10月核心CPI环比小幅回落，但住房分项仍然保持韧性。10月核心通胀边际回落缓解市场对短期通胀大幅上行的担忧，美联储12月继续降息的概率仍然较大，但明年的通胀路径有较强的不确定性，具体取决于经济基本面以及特朗普政府政策的影响，美联储短期内或继续维持开放指引。③国盛证券：预计短期内美债收益率和美元指数维持高位国盛证券表示，美国10月CPI和核心CPI均符合预期，主要分项变化不大，整体通胀粘性仍强。数据公布后，市场预期美联储12月再降息25bp概率从60%升至80%，2025年仍维持大概率再降50bp不变。据测算2025年美国通胀将进入瓶颈期，中枢水平仍将明显高于2%。近期市场已开始交易美国再通胀预期，预计短期内美债收益率和美元指数维持高位，但进一步上行空间不会太大。④华福证券：年内美国通胀同比数据大概率继续走强华福证券表示，美国10月通胀数据同比读数走强、核心CPI同比持平，反映美国经济韧性较强，且往后看年内通胀同比数据大概率继续走强，对美联储带来一定掣肘。对于美股而言，衰退交易证伪+本轮降息更接近预防式降息剧本，对美股总体利好，但短期需警惕估值偏高及市场集中度过高带来的压力。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}