为何微软股价今年落后对手？高盛头号科技交易员找到一个原因：特斯拉太“吸金”

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为何微软股价今年落后对手？高盛头号科技交易员找到一个原因：特斯拉太“吸金”

华尔街见闻11-21

微软股价今年初以来累涨约12%，落后于其他科技巨头。在美国科技股“七姐妹”（Mag 7）中，不要说年内大涨近200%的英伟达，就连苹果、谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊和Meta的涨幅也至少约有20%。为什么微软今年落后？高盛头号科技交易员Peter Callahan认为主要有以下几点原因，其中还涉及到特斯拉太“吸金”。它们分别是：今年缺乏积极的每股收益（EPS）修正。微软的EPS修订...

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Goldman's top tech trader finds a reason: Tesla is too \"gold-sucking\"","themeId":"732e1b51436ce4059e1ec26dde694e7a","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1,"TSLA":1,"MSFT":1},"content_text":"微软股价今年初以来累涨约12%，落后于其他科技巨头。在美国科技股“七姐妹”（Mag 7）中，不要说年内大涨近200%的英伟达，就连苹果、谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊和Meta的涨幅也至少约有20%。\n\n为什么微软今年落后？高盛头号科技交易员Peter Callahan认为主要有以下几点原因，其中还涉及到特斯拉太“吸金”。它们分别是：\n\n今年缺乏积极的每股收益（EPS）修正。微软的EPS修订过去一年停滞不前。\n微软Azure云服务的增长与同行不同。相比谷歌云，Azure的增长在放慢，甲骨文云相比Azure而言在加速增长，Azure只能算稳定。\n市场认为AI“应用”故事的成熟速度更慢，例如 Office Copilot、必应改进、AI代理（AI Agent）等。\n资本支出进展悬而未决，无法“消化”利润的逆风，\n关于基础模型/大语言模型（LLM）世界的争论（微软与OpenAI的合作伙伴关系、与Meta Lama和谷歌Gemini等模型的比较）\n投资者将资金投入其他巨头。\n\n对于最后提到的这点，Callahan指出，三季度的持仓显示，共同基金对Mag 7低配806个基点，超过二季度的671个基点。在Mag 7中，有四只位列减持前20位的个股，分别是微软、Alphabet、Meta和英伟达，而特斯拉是增持最多的个股。\n展望未来，什么因素会改变有关微软的叙事？高盛交易部门认为有以下几个：\n\nAzure表现优异（例如Azure下半年实现稳定增长或加速增长）。\n展示运营杠杆/提高EPS修订的能力。\n应用层生成式AI出现明显增长势头的迹象。\n其他蓝筹科技股失宠（例如，资本支出/运营问题或电子商务/广告焦虑等）。\n\n对于以上第三点，Callahan摘录了高盛分析师Kash Rangan报告中对本周二微软Ignite大会的回顾。报告称，由于微软对OpenAI的投资在很大程度上被计入了2026财年的EPS共识预期，高盛认为，微软的下一个潜在催化剂是 Azure于2025财年第三财季、即明年一季度开始的重新加速增长。\n报告写道，高盛认为，微软新平台Azure AI Foundry（预览版）、即将推出的AI Agent Service、会有超过10万组织应用的Copilot Studio都在促进客户采用 Azure AI。Azure OpenAI Services 的使用量在六个月内翻了一番，这表明客户正在寻找利用这些技术的真实用例。\n报告提到，Microsoft 365 Copilot性能的显著改进让高盛相信 Copilot 可能会发展成为关键的生成式AI用例，它的响应速度提高两倍，响应满意度提高三倍。微软大幅强化的功能，比如Copilot Actions、Pages、Agentic AI和客服、制造等领域的扩展用例正在快速进入市场，这可能会加快价值实现并影响微软的收入。\n报告还提到微软构建AI 生态系统，包括成本管理（使用 Copilot Analytics、GA 等产品）、企业控制（AI 模型治理）和安全性，这种生态系统的构建可以让 Copilot 更轻松地部署在Microsoft 365 的 4亿多用户（主要是企业）的安装群中。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}