Last week, the S&P 500 notched its first record close since February as animal spirits returned to Wall Street with a vengeance.
The rally was aided by a cease-fire between Israel and Iran and dovish remarks from two Federal Reserve Governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Both suggested that they were open to cutting the federal-funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee's July 29-30 meeting if inflation kept cooling.
Much could depend on the only jobs report left before the July FOMC meeting, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases on Thursday, one day earlier than normal due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday. Jobs growth has cooled this year, but the labor market is still solid, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. A particularly weak jobs report could tilt the balance of risks to the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate.
Other economic data for investors to chew on include the Institute for Supply Management's Chicago Business Barometer, released on Monday, and the Manufacturing Services Purchasing Managers' Index, released on Tuesday. The ISM also comes out with its Services PMI on Thursday.
Only one S&P 500 company reports results, Constellation Brands, which does so on Tuesday.
There's a lull on the earnings calendar before things heat up with the big banks kicking off second-quarter earnings season on July 15.
Monday 6/30
The Institute for Supply Management releases the Chicago Business Barometer for June. The consensus estimate is for a 42.7 reading, about two points more than in May.
Tuesday 7/1
Constellation reports first-quarter fiscal-2026 earnings.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The consensus call is for 7.3 million job openings on the last business day of May, nearly 100,000 fewer than in April.
The ISM releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for June. Expectations are for a 48.8 reading, roughly even with the May figure.
Wednesday 7/2
ADP releases its National Employment Report for June. The consensus estimate is for a gain of 88,000 private-sector jobs, after a 37,000 increase in May. That was the slowest pace of hiring since May 2023, according to ADP.
Thursday 7/3
The ISM releases its Services PMI for June. The consensus call is for a 50.5, slightly higher than the May data.
The BLS releases the jobs report for June. Economists forecast a 113,00 increase in nonfarm payrolls, following a 139,000 gain in May. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. While traders see the Fed's next interest cut as likely to happen at the September meeting, an especially weak jobs report could put a July rate cut into play. Jobs growth has averaged 123,800 a month so far this year, compared with 191,900 the previous two years.
Friday 7/4
Equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Independence Day.
