Apple Inc. is set to reveal its next generation of phones and other products on Tuesday — and analysts are watching to see if it could be a sorely needed catalyst for the company’s stock.
In recent years, these iPhone events haven’t done much to help Apple shares. Such announcements have often been “sell-the-news” events, a BofA analyst wrote recently, as expectations are often priced into the stock leading up to the release.
Over the past five years, Apple shares have averaged essentially flat performance on announcement day and fallen 2.1%, on average, between the event and the release of the new phones, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
But rumors of a new, thinner iPhone suggest the potential for a positive surprise ahead, some Wall Street analysts believe. Apple is expected to announce four new iPhones at its Sept. 9 “Awe Dropping” event, including a new iPhone 17 Air.
J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee sees “room for surprise from better consumer reception” than what Apple is anticipating for the iPhone 17 Air. He believes the slimmer and lighter phone will appeal to consumers who prioritize in-hand comfort, a factor often compromised by features such as larger batteries and cameras.
At just 5.55 millimeters in thickness, the iPhone Air is expected to be roughly 35% thinner than the iPhone 16 lineup. Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani wrote earlier this week that “this year’s Apple event sets the stage for a multiyear iPhone roadmap that’ll feature notable form-factor changes, beginning with this year’s release of the iPhone Air.”
In a note from last week, Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan pointed out that “previous form-factor changes have driven a meaningfully higher next iPhone cycle.” And according to Daryanani, a growing number of customers with iPhones that are four or more years old are finally replacing their devices. Apple’s iPhone revenue rose 13% year over year last quarter, and those upgrades could be a reason why.
But Mohan thinks investors aren’t as upbeat on the potential benefits of a thinner iPhone, citing “tempered” expectations, as Apple has experimented with different form factors in the past with the iPhone Mini and Plus models.
According to Chatterjee, the iPhone Air “would be the next sequel of Apple’s attempts to revitalize the fourth SKU which has moderated to account for a steadily lower portion of the mix.” According to data from the research firm Omdia and J.P. Morgan, the iPhone Mini 12 and 13 models comprised of 13% and 14% of the iPhone product mix in the first fiscal year of each respective cycle, but the iPhone Plus saw less adoption. The iPhone Plus 14 comprised 12% of that cycle’s product mix, but the subsequent 15 and 16 versions only made up 8% and 6% of each product cycle, respectively.
David Giroux, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, doubts the iPhone Air will move the needle much for both iPhone sales and Apple shares, as the design change doesn’t seem groundbreaking to him.
“I think the real positive for Apple would be when they come out with a foldable phone,” Giroux told MarketWatch. “That just drives a much higher price point than a traditional iPhone.”
While competitors such as Samsung Electronics Co. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google have released foldable phones, Giroux believes Apple has been hesitant to be an early entrant in the space due to reports of issues with the hinge mechanism on existing foldables.
But Daryanani believes Apple could release a foldable iPhone as early as next year, and a curved glass iPhone in 2027.
While Apple’s stock is up around 18% in the past month, it’s in need of a more meaningful jolt. Shares are down more than 4% over the course of 2025 to date, and have lagged all but Tesla Inc.’s stock within the “Magnificent Seven” group of megacap tech companies this year. The stock has been weighed down in part by fears about the company’s competitiveness in artificial intelligence.
That’s why, beyond the new iPhone announcements, any updates surrounding Apple’s AI strategy should be a source of upside for the stock, allowing it to “fare better” than after past events, Mohan said. Investors have been concerned that Apple is lagging behind other Big Tech names in regards to AI, so any positive news regarding its plans there could shift sentiment.
The company seems to have something in the works: A recent report from Bloomberg revealed that Apple has been preparing to revamp Siri through a partnership with Google’s Gemini. But it’s unclear whether Apple would announce such a move at Tuesday’s event, which is typically focused on hardware more than software.