Stocks jumped this past Monday on hopes that the U.S. government shutdown would end, then gave up most of those gains by Thursday when the government officially reopened. A classic case of buying the rumor and selling the news. The S&P 500 ended the week basically unchanged.
Equities took a hit from hawkish Fedspeak, as several Federal Open Market Committee members expressed their view that an interest-rate cut at the FOMC's December meeting would be unnecessary. Traders priced in a 43% a chance for a quarter-point rate cut by year end, down from 66% just a week ago.
While the government has reopened it is unclear if and when some of the delayed economic data will be released. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it will release the September jobs report this Thursday, but the White House said this past week that the October jobs report and consumer price index might never be released.
Economic data releases this week include the minutes from the FOMC's late-October meeting, to be released on Wednesday, and the Census Bureau's housing starts data, coming Thursday. On Friday, S&P Global will release both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes.
On the earnings front, Nvidia -- dubbed "the most important stock on Earth" by Goldman Sachs -- will announce quarterly results on Wednesday. The company is an artificial-intelligence bellwether and the most valuable company in the world, so its earnings conference call is a can't-miss event for Wall Street.
Retailers will also feature heavily on the calendar, with Home Depot reporting on Tuesday, and Lowe's and Target on Wednesday. Industry titan Wal-Mart, whose longtime CEO, Doug McMillion, announced he is stepping down, will release earnings on Thursday.
Monday 11/17
Trip.com Group and XPeng announce quarterly results.
Tuesday 11/18
Home Depot, Klarna Group, Medtronic, and PDD Holdings release earnings.
The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 37 reading, the same as October's. The index measures the sentiment of homebuilders, with readings less than 50 indicating a dour outlook for the single-family housing market in the next six months.
Wednesday 11/19
Lowe's, Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks, Target, TJX Cos., Viking Holdings, and Williams-Sonoma report quarterly results.
The Census Bureau releases new residential construction statistics for October. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.33 million privately-owned housing starts, slightly more than in September.
The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its late October monetary-policy meeting. At that time, the FOMC cut the federal-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.75% -- 4%. There were two dissenting votes in either direction, with Fed governor Stephen Miran voting for a half-point cut, and Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeff Schmid voting for no cut at all. A divided Fed has left Wall Street with more uncertainty than normal about the Fed's future rate path. Traders see the chance of a rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting as basically a coin flip. This is down from a two-thirds chance a week ago, as several FOMC members argued against a December rate cut this past week.
Thursday 11/20
Copart, Intuit, Jacobs Solutions, Ross Stores, Veeva Systems, and Walmart hold conference calls to discuss earnings.
The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October. The consensus call is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million homes sold, a touch more than in September. The median price of an existing home was $415,200 in September, up 2.1% from the year prior.
Friday 11/21
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings reports quarterly results.
S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes for November. Expectations are for a 52 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 54.5 for the Services PMI compared with readings of 52.5 and 54.8, respectively, in October.
