By any objective measure, U.S. stocks have had a pretty spectacular year. Rising from the ashes of President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs like a phoenix, powered by tech and the artificial intelligence boom, the S&P 500 is on pace for an annual gain of around 18%, with the 7000 point mark firmly in sight.
But that assessment only reveals the headline portion of the market’s extraordinary comeback, and to understand where stocks might be headed in 2026, it’s useful to consider one of the prime drivers of 2025’s impressive advance: corporate America as a lemonade stand.
Handed a bag of lemons in the early spring, both in the form of President Trump’s hastily arranged tariff schedule, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and a shrinking U.S. economy, American companies did what they do best. They found a way to make money.
Tech led the way over the first half of the year, with an impressive set of updates and outlooks that saved the market from its early April collapse and set the tone for the rest of the year. Other sectors followed suit, and by the end of the third quarter, annual S&P 500 profits were on pace to rise more than 13% from last year.
Third-quarter profits were more widespread, with sectors such as financials, healthcare, and industrials contributing a larger portion of the benchmark’s $602 billion in overall earnings.
The economy was getting dragged along, as well, with GDP growth over the three months ending in October pegged at an astonishing 4.3%. That advance came despite the longest government shutdown on record and a pullback in the AI investment boom triggered by concerns over surging debt levels and worries over the time it will take for AI projects to start turning a profit.
The S&P 500’s recent run, which produced a record high close of 6932 points on Wednesday, has also powered through some pretty hefty drawdowns in its biggest stocks. Nvidia shares have fallen nearly 9% from their all-time closing peak in late October, while Microsoft is down 10%, and Amazon 8%.
It’s also worth noting that both the jump in profitability, and the surprise advance in third quarter GDP, came amid a slowdown in the labor market, where headline unemployment now sits at 4.6%, the highest in four years.
That, in many respects, underscores the adaptability of American companies, which have used new technologies such as AI to improve profits while managing the increased costs from tariffs and the impact of stubbornly elevated inflation.
More of the same, in fact, is expected next year. LSEG data suggest collective S&P 500 profits will rise around 15% to $312 a share, a firmer rate of growth than is forecast for the benchmark itself, which is pegged to rise by around 11% from current levels.
That’s a good sign for investors, as it indicates both improving profitability on the corporate side, and stocks becoming more attractive from a price to earnings perspective. In other words, as companies make more money, index gains become more closely tied to fundamentals than sentiment.
A lower PE ratio for the S&P 500, with improving earnings growth for its constituents, is the sign of a healthy market.
External support is also expected to accelerate, with new leadership at the Fed likely to quicken the pace of interest rate cuts, and tailwinds from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act poised to support consumer spending and lower corporate tax rates.
That’s not to say risks aren’t hovering: this year’s surge in precious metals prices reflects currency debasement, government debt and inflation concerns that aren’t being checked in the bond market. Geopolitical tensions could upend recent declines in oil and gas prices, and a looming Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariff authority could inject another round of chaos into markets over the coming months.
But if 2025 has taught us anything, it’s that the U.S. corporate lemonade stand will find a way to convert what sour citrus it’s forced to assume into a sweet and refreshing glass of new money.
And we can all drink to that.