It can be hard to understand Elon Musk's reality -- especially as he appears to be on track to become the world's first trillionaire this year.
Even he questions that reality.
For the longest time, Musk has talked about the possibility that we're living in a computer simulation. And a proof point for him might very well be 2025.
How else could you explain the year the world's richest man had?
It was a period filled with dizzying turns in politics and business. To the chagrin of his critics, the events of 2025 are propelling him into 2026 with the kind of momentum that could see him remain a potent force in national politics and his net worth reach the Four Comma Club -- even before receiving a dime of his new $1 trillion Tesla pay package that shareholders approved last fall.
To be clear, the simulation hypothesis is more sci-fi than science. Think of the movie "The Matrix," or an elaborate videogame, or a really involved Netflix series that some advanced beings are watching.
Understanding his ideas on the simulation helps shed light onto how Musk is using the power of narrative to sell his rather audacious 2026 goals to investors. Those ambitions include: scaling Cybercab output, "high-volume" production of brain computers and finally achieving full reusability with Starship, the massive rocket being developed for moon and Mars missions.
"I do have this theory about predicting the future, which is that the most interesting outcome is the most likely," Musk said during a podcast appearance a few weeks ago.
A SpaceX Super Heavy booster carrying the Starship spacecraft lifting off.
It is an idea rooted in the thinking that if our reality really is a simulation, we would get shut down if we were boring.
"Another way to think of it is like we could be an alien Netflix series and that series is only going to get continued if our ratings are good," Musk said. "If you apply Darwin to simulation theory then only the most interesting simulations will continue. Therefore, the most interesting outcome is most likely because it's either that or annihilation.
"So," he added, "really, we have one goal: Keep it interesting."
Say what you want about Musk, but he certainly kept it interesting in 2025.
In the past 12 months, we watched Musk ascend to the peak of political power (claiming the title of "First Buddy" next to President Trump in the White House) only to see their special relationship blow up in a spectacular way.
In business, Musk saw Tesla's market value hit a new high even as its deliveries of electric vehicles fell for the second consecutive year, hurt especially by results in Europe. Investor enthusiasm was buoyed by Musk's exit from Washington, so much so that they approved a record pay package for their beloved chief executive that could pay out $1 trillion if he successfully achieves a list of audacious goals that would essentially remake the car company into a robotics firm in the next decade.
His rocket company, SpaceX, is flirting with going public this year in what could be a massive initial public offering as Musk talks about his plans to open AI data centers in outer space and a factory on the moon.
His social-media company, X, posted a series of antisemitic posts from his AI chatbot, Grok, that included calling itself "MechaHitler." It was the sort of public flub that might have derailed any other startup, but it was quickly forgotten as Musk moved on to his next viral moment. He has been working to raise billions of dollars more for his AI company, xAI, that is seeking to rival OpenAI and Google for the future of artificial intelligence.
For Musk, this past year was filled with so many twists and turns that it can be hard to remember them all. It also fits with his theory that the simulation encourages an up-and-down story arc, not a linear one.
"Look at President Trump's story," Musk said on the Katie Miller Podcast in December. "It's more interesting that he lost the intermediate term and then won his second term after that -- just like the story arc, initially up then down then resurgent...If you went with my theory that the most interesting outcome is the most likely, then that was the most likely outcome. It was inevitable."
Elon Musk delivers remarks next to President Donald Trump in the Oval Office.
Even Musk's own relationship with Trump has followed such a pattern this past year. The First Act was the early days of the White House where Musk seemed to be a constant presence, going after federal spending via his Department of Government Efficiency to the dismay of some. Then came the Second Act: the falling out. Now the Third Act is surprising many: In the wake of the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, Musk appeared to mend fences. And now Musk seems likely to funnel more of his money toward Republicans in the midterm elections this year.
All the while, Musk's personal fortune has grown to new levels. His net worth surged, more than doubling, to around $726 billion at the end of the year, according to Forbes's calculations.
That estimate was bolstered by SpaceX seeking a valuation of $800 billion in a secondary share sale, up from a prior valuation of $400 billion. His net worth was further helped by a Delaware Supreme Court ruling in December that overturned a lower court, clearing the way for Musk to receive his contested 2018 pay package, now worth $139 billion for his work as Tesla CEO.
If SpaceX, of which Musk has held around 42%, goes public at a $1.5 trillion valuation, as suggested by Bloomberg News, it is easy to see how his net worth could be worth $1 trillion this year.
This kind of personal wealth is hard to fathom -- almost as if we are in a simulation. Maybe that is why Musk has spent so much of his adult life thinking about the topic. He has been talking about it publicly for at least a decade now.
His simulation argument is drawn from looking at the pace of development in our own modern lives: In the span of two generations, videogames have advanced from simplistic graphics of "Pong" to photorealistic, 3-D simulations with millions of players competing simultaneously. To him, it just makes sense that a more advanced society has already gone down this path.
"Given that we're clearly on a trajectory to have games that are indistinguishable from reality...it would seem to follow that the odds we're in based reality is one in billions," Musk said at a 2016 tech conference. "So tell me what's wrong with that argument."
More recently, as Musk reminisced on what has occurred in his own life, he has sounded even more certain. "If you were me," Musk asked, "would you think this is real or a simulation?"