Energy stocks climb as investors gauge events in Venezuela.
Shares in the oil sector were flying on Monday as investors scrambled to assess what the capture of Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro could mean for the industry.
While fresh geopolitical headlines appeared to have little impact on U.S. stocks or crude, the big oil names were moving as some investors gauged future access to oil reserves in the country.
Shares of ConocoPhillips, Chevron and Exxon Mobil all rose Monday, with Chevron's stock closing at its highest since April 2 and Exxon's stock ending at its best level since Oct. 7, 2024. Chevron was also the best performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday.
Shares of oil-services companies SLB Ltd and Halliburton also rose. Analysts said those companies could benefit as a result of investment in the country and an increase in Venezuela's oil output.
"Even the attempt to restart Venezuela is service-intensive - broken fields, broken pipes, broken facilities. That's why the first trade can be bullish for oil services and infrastructure names (the guys who get paid to rebuild the machine), even if you're bearish long-term oil prices," said Matthew Tuttle, chief executive of Tuttle Capital Management.
Shares of refiners Marathon Petroleum and Valero jumped and led the S&P's energy sector alongside Phillips 66's stock. Venezuela's heavy crude is more difficult and expensive to process than U.S. light crude and tends to sell at a discount to the lighter version.
"The immediate impact in the oil market will likely be where [Venezuelan barrels of oil] are sold and the impact on the light/heavy differential," said a Jefferies team led by analyst Lloyd Byrne.
The Jefferies analysts said that a large share of Venezuelan oil has been sold to China at hefty discounts due to sanctions. However, Gulf Coast refiners are big customers of the heavy sour blend, which since 2018 has largely been sourced by Canadian companies.
"We anticipate that light/heavy spreads will widen if more oil targets U.S. shores," they said, adding that large complex refiners on the U.S. Gulf Coast such as Valero, Marathon, Phillips 66, Exxon and Chevron would benefit.
"The initial market pressure will be on non-integrated Canadian heavy oil producers as [Western Canada Select] prices would face downward pressure should more Venezuelan barrels come to market," the Jefferies analysts said. Among those producers, shares of Canadian Natural, Imperial and Enbridge retreated on Monday.
Further down the road, they said that, apart from ConocoPhillips - which is owed money by Venezuela - Chevron will be a beneficiary, given that it still has operations there. Additionally, Exxon "will always be an important player going forward." SLB, Halliburton and Baker Hughes remained Jefferies's top names to help grow and stabilize production.
"[Chevron's] existing footprint in the country could mean it is best positioned to benefit from more opportunity as they have maintained a license from the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control to produce and export crude from existing [Venezuelan] assets since [the fourth quarter of 2022]," said a team of TD Cowen analysts that included Menno Hulshof and Marc Bianchi.
Chevron produces 200,000 barrels a day from its joint venture in Venezuela, the Cowen analysts said.
The read-through for one big name in particular - ConocoPhillips - stood out for analysts at Citi, who had 8% upside for shares if Venezuela pays up on that long-overdue debt.
The oil major was awarded more than $10.5 billion by an international court after the nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry in 2007. So far, ConocoPhillips has recouped $800 million, while legal actions in 2025 could in theory mean another $1 billion, they said. The value of the remaining sum has been held at close to zero, given that there has been no clear path to recouping that, Citi said.
But analysts urged caution.
Given the oil industry's "contentious history" when it comes to investing in Venezuela, "there would need to be a substantial change in political and fiscal conditions for the industry to re-engage," the Citi analysts said.
President Donald Trump, speaking over the weekend, said that U.S. oil companies would "go in" to Venezuela, "spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure and start making money for the country." He told reporters on Air Force One that oil companies were contacted both before and after the incursion.
But many analysts were quick to point out how expensive and time-consuming it will be to get Venezuela's oil back to the market - "years of annual investment of some $10 billion anchored by a stable security environment - both of which are tall orders," RBC analysts led by Greg Pardy said in a note.
The energy sector has been a tough bet for investors as oil prices have struggled since August 2022. In 2025, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund returned just over 7% in 2025, while the iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF gained over 200% in a red-hot year for precious metals.
The threat of Venezuela's oil returning to the market does not have crude investors running scared, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures rising around 1% each on Monday.
