Sponsored by
Why Oil Prices Shrugged Off Venezuela and Iran By Spencer Jakab
Happy New Year. Markets are starting off the first full week of this year much as they spent 2025, with stocks and gold looking strong but oil not getting the memo, despite this weekend's headlines (more on that below). January often sets the tone for the year, and this week's jobs report, ripple effects from Venezuela and investors' confidence about year four of the AI investing boom are the factors to watch for now.
Follow our live markets coverage , updated throughout the day.
Data refreshes every time you open this email.
***
Don't adjust your screen-the oil prices you're seeing are correct .
The headlines from Venezuela and Iran
alone, much less combined, used to be the sort of thing that made them skyrocket. Today's market is different, and that could mean a miserable stretch for energy investors will get even worse.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's arrest over the weekend is the biggest threat to the regime since an attempted coup and general strike nearly forced out his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, 23 years ago. Oil prices back then jumped nearly 40% in a matter of months.
But Venezuela still produced more than 3% of the world's oil then during a time of no excess supply. Today it's about 900,000 barrels a day, or less than 1%, in a glutted market.
Meanwhile, antigovernment protests in Iran conjure up hazy memories of that country's 1979 revolution. Crude production collapsed, erasing 7% of world supply and sending prices up by 150% in a year.
Venezuela and Iran still matter, but far less than at the time of those upheavals. Crude prices are close to a five-year low and the market remains seriously oversupplied.
What's more, there are really two oil markets-the transparent one and the "don't ask, don't tell" barrels sold by countries like Russia, Iran and Venezuela operating under sanctions. Many are carried by shadow tankers
and delivered cheaply to countries like Turkey, India and China.
For now, the authorities in Caracas and Tehran are hanging on. Unless things become extremely violent, regime change might even be negative for benchmark crude prices, making trade more rational too.
For example, the U.S. is simultaneously a huge crude exporter and importer because its refineries were built to handle the types of crude Venezuela produces, not the lighter variety from domestic shale formations.
If recent events lead to an easing of sanctions, Monday mornng's rally in refining and service stocks makes sense, but the enthusiasm for pure oil producers might not.
Helima Croft, who heads global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, points out that steep costs, unresolved legal challenges and the security situation in Venezuela make reviving production there with American participation a tall order, despite President Trump's confidence .
The biggest change for the oil market since 1979 and 2003 has been in the U.S. itself. The fracking boom turned America into the world's top producer and made global supply more responsive to prices.
Wells are now brought online so easily that oil companies can ramp up or down far more quickly than during past crises or busts. Naturally that means the risk versus reward of fixing rusting wells in an unstable country like Venezuela looks different.
This isn't your father's or grandfather's oil industry.
CONTENT FROM: BLACKSTONE Build with Blackstone
Nearly 90% of companies are privately owned. Partner with Blackstone and help your clients build wealth with private markets.
LEARN MORE
Stocks I'm Watching
BAE Systems , Dassault Aviation : Defense stocks rose in Europe and Asia after the U.S. ousted Venezuela's President Maduro, as investors bet on an uptick in global geopolitical tensions.
Chevron : The company is the only U.S. oil major in Venezuela, pumping around one-third of the country's output. Shares jumped more than 7% in premarket trading.
ConocoPhillips , Exxon Mobil : The two oil companies left Venezuela in 2007 after then-President Hugo Chávez nationalized their assets. On Saturday, President Trump pledged to dispatch U.S. drillers to revive Venezuela's crude output. Shares in both companies surged premarket.
Halliburton : Shares in Halliburton and other oilfield-services companies such as Baker Hughes and SLB also rose.
Comcast : Regular trading of the TV network owner's Versant spinoff is set to begin Monday. Comcast shares lost 5% ahead of the open.
Equinor : The Norwegian company said late Friday it is seeking an injunction against the White House's order
halting construction of U.S. offshore wind projects. Shares fell about 1%.
One Big Chart
The Winners and Losers From 2026's Mix of Tax and Benefit Cuts
For consumers, 2025 was filled with a series of anxiety-inducing tariff announcements. Tax cuts will help pad wallets in 2026, but not across all income levels .
What I'm Reading Global stocks had a great 2025. It was about more than the sagging dollar. ( WSJ ) Wall Street reckons corporate profits and falling interest rates may be enough to lift the S&P 500 to a fourth-straight year of gains, the longest such streak in nearly two decades. ( WSJ ) WSJ's "Take On the Week" podcast discusses investing trends to watch in 2026 with Heard on the Street's columnists. ( WSJ ) Five notable investors tell us how they're approaching the coming year. ( WSJ ) Elon Musk could become the world's first trillionaire, even without the controversial pay package approved last year by Tesla shareholders. ( WSJ ) Today in Markets History
On this day in 1999, Amazon said fourth-quarter sales totaled $250 million, more than triple the level of the same quarter a year earlier. Shares of the still unprofitable company surged and were the most traded that day on Nasdaq.
Beyond the Newsroom
WSJ | Buy Side: Our guide to this month's best auto refinance rates and loans .
About Me
Business and finance have fascinated me for a long time. Before writing this newsletter, I edited The Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street team for a decade, wrote two investment books and managed a team of stock analysts at a global investment bank.
The Markets A.M. newsletter prepares you for the trading day ahead, with expert insight into the companies and industries set to move markets. Send your feedback to [markets.am@wsj.com], or reply to this email. Got a tip for us? Here's how to submit .
Enjoying this newsletter? Get more from WSJ and support our journalism by subscribing today with this special offer .
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 05, 2026 06:38 ET (11:38 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
