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Asia Week Ahead: Manufacturing Activity, Inflation, and Trade Data

MT Newswires01-26 16:48

The week ahead in Asia is packed with economic releases covering industrial output, trade data, and multiple key inflation and growth indicators.

The week gets underway with industrial production figures from Singapore. Focus then shifts to China's December industrial profits data amid intensifying price competition, alongside trade releases from Hong Kong and the Philippines.

Midweek brings inflation data from Australia that could shape expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's February policy decision, while central bank minutes from Japan and an interest rate decision in Singapore will also be in focus.

The latter half of the week features GDP figures from the Philippines and Taiwan, a broad slate of activity data from Japan and South Korea, as well as China's official PMI readings.

Here's a day-by-day look at what's on the calendar in Asia this week.

MONDAY, Jan. 26

The week was off to a relatively light start, with the only release of note coming in from Singapore.

The city-state reported its industrial production figures for December, recording an 8.3% year-on-year increase in output, thanks to the transport engineering, electronics, and precision engineering clusters.

TUESDAY, Jan. 27

Markets will be watching China's December industrial profits data against a backdrop of intensifying price war that has squeezed margins across multiple sectors.

According to ING, a slight improvement in momentum during the second half of the year could turn overall profit growth slightly positive for the year.

Both Hong Kong and the Philippines will report December trade figures.

Trading Economics expects the Philippines' trade deficit to widen to $4.3 billion from $3.51 billion in November. In contrast, Hong Kong's trade deficit is expected to narrow to HK$35 billion from HK$48.5 billion in the month prior.

Elsewhere, South Korea and Australia will release business confidence reports.

WEDNESDAY, Jan. 28

Inflation data coming in from Australia will clue markets in on the direction of the central bank's interest rate policy decision next month.

The upcoming inflation data may further strengthen the view of an interest rate hike in February, according to CommBank.

"We continue to expect the RBA to tighten monetary policy in 2026, with the most likely timing for the first cash rate hike being February 2026. A hike in February will hinge on both the size and composition of the inflation print, as well as the RBA's assessment of the broader economic environment," CommBank said in a preview.

The bank expects seasonally adjusted inflation to clock in at 3.8% year on year in December, while the trimmed mean is expected to come in at 3.3% on an annual basis.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting minutes will shed light on the central bank's recent decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%.

Malaysia's December producer price index will be due the same day, while India will report its industrial and manufacturing production stats for the month.

THURSDAY, Jan. 29

Attention shifts to Singapore's monetary policy statement. Barclays expects no change to the city-state's policy rate after December's core CPI came in at 1.2%, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Singapore also releases its December producer price index and export and import price figures.

Australia will report its fourth-quarter export and import prices on Thursday. Neighboring New Zealand will release trade numbers and a business confidence report.

The Philippines' GDP figures will also warrant attention. Q4 growth rate should remain subdued at around 4.1%, reflecting a deeper decline in government spending and further weakness in consumption.

Lastly, Japan will report its consumer confidence index.

FRIDAY, Jan. 30

Japan will dominate headlines as it releases a flurry of data, including the closely watched Tokyo core consumer price index for January, which markets will use as an early indicator for the overall inflation rate in the country.

Data is likely to show that consumer inflation slowed to 1.7% from the 2% increase witnessed in December, according to ING. This would be the first time the pace comes in below 2% since November 2024.

Other releases coming in from Japan include December's unemployment rate, retail sales stats, and industrial production figures.

Meanwhile, South Korea reports December retail sales and industrial production data.

Declining automotive production is likely to weigh on manufacturing output during the month, though chip output should see a recovery, ING said in a preview.

"Retail sales are expected to bounce back following a steep decline in November, driven by winter sales promotions and a rise in Chinese tourist arrivals," the bank said.

Thailand will also report its industrial production and retail sales stats on Friday.

Markets will also be awaiting Taiwan's fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate. Economists at DBS expect full-year GDP growth to reach around 7.5% thanks to a boom in artificial intelligence-related exports, the Wall Street Journal reported.

"Full-year growth of over 7% is certainly on the table," ING concurred in a separate note.

Multiple releases are scheduled in Macau, including the gaming hub's preliminary fourth-quarter GDP growth rate, plus December trade data and unemployment rate.

Singapore similarly reports its initial unemployment rate for Q4 2025.

In addition, producer price indices from Australia and the Philippines are expected during the day, while New Zealand releases its consumer confidence report for January.

SATURDAY, Jan. 31

China's National Bureau of Statistics releases its January manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and general PMI reports.

SUNDAY, Feb. 1

South Korea reports trade figures for January. Analysts at Citi expect the surplus to drop to $4.6 billion, citing strong export growth due to semiconductor demand and more working days.

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