Traders on prediction markets stepped up their wagers on another government shutdown after the weekend's deadly shooting in Minneapolis led Senate Democrats to demand changes to a major spending package.
Early Monday, prices on Polymarket were implying a 78% probability of a shutdown by the end of January, up from less than 10% on Friday. The bets have drawn about $7.5 million in total trading volume, Polymarket data shows.
A similar contract on Kalshi, a rival platform, also showed a huge jump in the chances of a shutdown on Jan. 31, when funding for much of the federal government is set to expire.
The sharp moves came after a number of Senate Democrats issued fiery statements Saturday saying that they wouldn't back any funds for the Department of Homeland Security(HSCC), which includes the agencies that oversee border security and immigration enforcement. Until the shooting, many Democrats had been expected to back the package.
Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal.