Analysts revise obesity drug market forecasts due to price erosion
Some analysts remain optimistic about $150 billion market potential
Price cuts may boost volumes despite market uncertainty, some analysts say
By Maggie Fick, Bhanvi Satija and Mariam Sunny
LONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The long-held Wall Street expectation that the global market for obesity drugs would reach $150 billion in the next decade is looking a lot less certain with U.S. prices falling for GLP-1 treatments from Novo Nordisk NOVOb.CO and Eli Lilly LLY.N and competition heating up in the cash-pay consumer market.
The fast-changing landscape, which includes the expected entry of new drugs and generic competition, has led to a recalculation of what the peak will be and when those heights may be reached, analysts and investors say.
“The peak has come down a little bit," said Terence McManus, portfolio manager at Switzerland's Bellevue Asset Management and a Lilly shareholder, pointing to pricing in the new consumer market and the launch of generic versions of Novo's Ozempic.
"Maybe a few years ago people didn't appreciate that that would happen so quickly," he said.
Unprecedented demand for the potent new weight-loss drugs targeting the GLP-1 hormone led analysts to project a market of $150 billion - or even $200 billion - by the early 2030s. But 2030 forecasts are around 30% lower at about $100 billion or so and that $150 billion target has shifted to 2035 for some.
Jefferies revised down by 20% its forecast in January for the weight-loss market to peak at $80 billion from its estimate in 2023 of over $100 billion by the early 2030s.
"That $150 billion pie is gone, even if you're very bullish on volumes," said Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten.
Novo and Lilly, which both report fourth-quarter financial results on Wednesday, are the dominant players in the market, with Lilly reaching a $1 trillion valuation last year and Novo's new Wegovy weight-loss pill getting off to a strong start.
Some analysts said Novo will forecast a decline in sales and operating profit for 2026 when it issues its financial outlook on Wednesday. Analysts expect Lilly to generate over 21% more revenue and adjusted earnings to grow over 40% in 2026 compared to 2025 estimates, according to LSEG data.
Novo declined to comment. Lilly did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
MOST BULLISH FORECASTS 'STAND ON THIN ICE'
Goldman Sachs analysts also pared back expectations. Their current estimate for global obesity drug sales by 2030 is $105 billion, down from earlier forecasts of $130 billion, based on steeper price erosion and changing customer-use patterns.
After the launches of Wegovy in 2021 and Lilly's rival Zepbound in 2023, the drugs retailed for about $1,000 per month in pharmacies. Faced with political pressure to lower costs in the U.S., they are now sold on company websites for starting prices of $149 to $299, in part reflecting a deal with the Trump administration.
"Prices have come down quite sharply, so you certainly need volumes to pick up a lot," said HSBC analyst Rajesh Kumar, who has yet to change his long-term market forecasts, saying 2026 will be a key year to gauge consumer demand.
Wegovy injection and pill and Zepbound injection prescriptions totalled 730,000 in the week ended January 23, according to IQVIA data cited in an analyst note. New Wegovy prescriptions grew 4%, largely due to the new pill, while Zepbound was up 0.9%.
Without a significant step-up in volumes, the most bullish projections for the sector "stand on thin ice", Kumar said. He estimates the market at more than $120 billion by end of 2030.
The entry of more convenient weight-loss pills could extend how long patients stay on therapy, potentially boosting sales, Kumar said. Lilly expects approval for its own pill in April.
Market researchers have also moderated their assumptions. IQVIA IQV.N recently pushed out its forecast for a global obesity market of around $130 billion to 2034 from 2028.
SOME STAND BY LOFTY FORECAST
Others remain more bullish, including Pfizer PFE.N CEO Albert Bourla, who said in January he expects the obesity drug market to reach $150 billion a year by 2030. Pfizer recently sealed a $10 billion deal for obesity drug biotech Metsera.
BMO Capital Markets, which in 2023 raised its forecast for annual GLP-1 sales to $158 billion by 2033, including $100 billion from obesity drugs, is betting falling prices will boost volumes. GLP-1s also treat type 2 diabetes.
BMO analyst Evan Seigerman said the companies can absorb the impact of generic competition on prices.
TD Cowen analyst Michael Nedelcovych said his firm's $139 billion global forecast for the diabetes and obesity drugs could rise if direct-to-consumer volumes offset price erosion.
Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen said obesity sales would likely top $100 billion, but pricing pressure had brought forward a hit to revenue most assumed would come in 2027, not 2026. "We've already got pretty steep discounts built into our model," she said.
Markus Manns, a portfolio manager at Union Investment that holds Novo and Lilly shares, said much is still uncertain with many potential competitors at early stages of development and potent oral drugs just starting to come on the market.
"In a few weeks we will at least have a better idea about the potential of orals," he said, "and whether they are expanding the market or just taking market share from injectables."
(Reporting by Maggie Fick and Bhanvi Satija in London and Mariam Sunny in Bengaluru'Additional reporting by Deena Beasley in Los Angeles; Editing by Adam Jourdan, Caroline Humer and Bill Berkrot)
((maggie.fick@thomsonreuters.com; +44 7890 916706;))
