Is Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) Price Justified After Recent Share Gains?

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Is Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) Price Justified After Recent Share Gains?

Simply Wall St.02-11 14:19

If you are looking at Woodside Energy Group and wondering whether the current share price really lines up with its underlying value, you are not alone. The stock last closed at A$25.93, with returns ...

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The stock last closed at A$25.93, with returns ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/energy/asx-wds/woodside-energy-group-shares/news/is-woodside-energy-group-asxwds-price-justified-after-recent\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) Price Justified After Recent Share Gains?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) Price Justified After Recent Share Gains?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-11 14:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/energy/asx-wds/woodside-energy-group-shares/news/is-woodside-energy-group-asxwds-price-justified-after-recent><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are looking at Woodside Energy Group and wondering whether the current share price really lines up with its underlying value, you are not alone. The stock last closed at A$25.93, with returns ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/energy/asx-wds/woodside-energy-group-shares/news/is-woodside-energy-group-asxwds-price-justified-after-recent\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK7142","symbol_name":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/energy/asx-wds/woodside-energy-group-shares/news/is-woodside-energy-group-asxwds-price-justified-after-recent","article_id":"2610560938","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/873963-main-header/1585186983306"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/energy/asx-wds/woodside-energy-group-shares/news/is-woodside-energy-group-asxwds-price-justified-after-recent","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610560938","pubTimestamp":1770790745,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are looking at Woodside Energy Group and wondering whether the current share price really lines up with its underlying value, you are not alone.\nThe stock last closed at A$25.93, with returns of 3.5% over 7 days, 9.9% over 30 days, 9.6% year to date and 13.1% over 1 year. Over longer periods, the 3 year return sits at a 10.1% decline and the 5 year return at 43.1%.\nThese mixed returns across different timeframes give useful context for anyone trying to connect the share price with the...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7142":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","WDS.AU":"WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc"},"translate_title":"伍德赛德能源集团(ASX：WDS)近期股价上涨后价格合理吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WDS.AU":1,"DCF":1},"content_text":"If you are looking at Woodside Energy Group and wondering whether the current share price really lines up with its underlying value, you are not alone. The stock last closed at A$25.93, with returns of 3.5% over 7 days, 9.9% over 30 days, 9.6% year to date and 13.1% over 1 year. Over longer periods, the 3 year return sits at a 10.1% decline and the 5 year return at 43.1%. These mixed returns across different timeframes give useful context for anyone trying to connect the share price with the company story and risk profile. They also set the scene for a closer look at how the current price compares with estimates of fair value based on different methods. On our valuation checklist, Woodside Energy Group scores 3 out of 6 for potential undervaluation, as shown by our 3 out of 6 valuation score. Next, we will walk through the standard valuation approaches investors often use, before circling back to a more rounded way of thinking about value at the end of the article.  Woodside Energy Group delivered 13.1% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Oil and Gas industry. AdvertisementApproach 1: Woodside Energy Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s dollars to estimate what the business might be worth right now. For Woodside Energy Group, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is $1,174.10m. Analyst inputs are included for the earlier years, then Simply Wall St extrapolates further out, resulting in a ten year projection where Free Cash Flow in 2035 is estimated at $1,128.74m, with each year’s cash flow discounted back to today. Combining these discounted cash flows produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.31 per share. When you compare this to the recent share price of A$25.93, the model suggests the stock is about 27.7% above that intrinsic estimate, which points to Woodside trading on the expensive side based purely on this DCF view. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Woodside Energy Group may be overvalued by 27.7%. Discover 10 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. WDS Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Woodside Energy Group. Approach 2: Woodside Energy Group Price vs Earnings For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to connect what you are paying for each share with the earnings that each share represents. It gives you a simple shorthand for how many years of current earnings the market is pricing in. What counts as a “normal” P/E often reflects how the market views a company’s growth potential and risk profile. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while lower growth prospects or higher risk usually point to a lower one. Woodside Energy Group currently trades on a P/E of 11.81x. That sits below the Oil and Gas industry average of 14.62x and well below the peer group average of 24.68x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Woodside is 18.39x. This is the P/E you might expect given factors such as its earnings profile, industry, profit margin, market cap and risk characteristics. This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry, because it adjusts for company specific traits rather than assuming all firms should trade on the same multiple. On this basis, Woodside’s current P/E of 11.81x is below the Fair Ratio of 18.39x, which points to the shares looking inexpensive on this metric. Result: UNDERVALUED ASX:WDS P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 3 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Woodside Energy Group Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you attach a clear story about Woodside Energy Group to your own assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins. You can turn that story into a financial forecast, and then into a fair value that you can compare with today’s price to decide whether the stock looks attractive or not. The platform then keeps that Narrative updated when new news or earnings arrive. This allows you to see, for example, how one Woodside Narrative might line up with a higher fair value of about A$36.87, while another builds a more cautious case closer to A$23.03. You can use that range to decide which view matches your own expectations before you act. For Woodside Energy Group however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Woodside Energy Group Narratives: 🐂 Woodside Energy Group Bull Case Fair value: A$27.16 Implied pricing gap to this fair value: about 4.5% below the narrative fair value at the recent A$25.93 share price Modeled revenue trend: 1.48% annual decline  This view leans on long run LNG demand, new U.S. LNG and ammonia projects and cost efficiencies to support Woodside's earnings and ability to return capital to shareholders. Analysts in this camp expect revenue to soften slightly and profit margins to ease from 21.4% to 16.0% by 2028, with earnings modeled at US$2.3b and a higher P/E of 18.2x to support their A$27.16 fair value. They see the current price sitting close to their A$27.16 target, so the key question for you is whether you agree that Woodside can deliver on LNG growth, ammonia ramp up and disciplined capital allocation under these assumptions.  🐻 Woodside Energy Group Bear Case Fair value: A$23.03 Implied pricing gap to this fair value: about 12.6% above the narrative fair value at the recent A$25.93 share price Modeled revenue trend: 5.02% annual decline  This more cautious view leans on faster decarbonization, renewable energy competition and higher funding and carbon costs as headwinds for LNG and oil heavy portfolios like Woodside's. Bearish analysts here factor in revenue declining about 5.0% per year and profit margins compressing toward 8.8%, with earnings modeled around US$934.4m by 2028, and they still need a high 34.1x future P/E to reach their A$23.03 fair value. From this angle, the current share price sits above their fair value, so the onus is on you to decide whether you think revenue pressure, margin risk and large project execution challenges justify using this more conservative narrative.  Do you think there's more to the story for Woodside Energy Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! ASX:WDS 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Woodside Energy Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}