业绩极强，股价破位：Palantir 撕开了“AI应用层”的最残酷真相

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业绩极强，股价破位：Palantir 撕开了“AI应用层”的最残酷真相

钛媒体APP02-26 15:31

2026年一开年，全球AI资本市场的分化愈发刺眼。当英伟达等底层算力厂商还在靠着AI芯片赚得盆满钵满时，身处AI应用层头部阵营的Palantir（PLTR），却陷入了“业绩亮眼、股价暴跌”的尴尬反差。这家以神秘大数据服务起家的软件公司，交出了一份近乎完美的财报，二级市场却用一场冷酷的估值杀跌予以回应。这不是单一明星股的短期波动：当市场资金从“疯狂追捧算力基建”转向“考验应用变现能力”，投资者对AI...

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AngHian
·02-26 16:17
Then, how about Tesla? Tesla's PE is much more higher than Palantir's.
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layer\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PLT":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"PLTR":1.96,"PLTD":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"PLYY":0.6},"content_text":"2026年一开年，全球AI资本市场的分化愈发刺眼。当英伟达等底层算力厂商还在靠着AI芯片赚得盆满钵满时，身处AI应用层头部阵营的Palantir（PLTR），却陷入了“业绩亮眼、股价暴跌”的尴尬反差。这家以神秘大数据服务起家的软件公司，交出了一份近乎完美的财报，二级市场却用一场冷酷的估值杀跌予以回应。这不是单一明星股的短期波动：当市场资金从“疯狂追捧算力基建”转向“考验应用变现能力”，投资者对AI应用的盈利回报耐心已耗至尽头，一丝偏差都可能引发连锁反应。狂飙的基本面：AIP模式跑通变现闭环单看业务数据，Palantir正处于成立以来最稳健的增长周期。它早已摆脱“靠国防订单吃饭”的单一标签，实实在在转型为靠AI商业服务驱动的巨头。最新财报数据显示，2025 年第四季度财报，Palantir单季总营收达14.1亿美元，同比增长70%，远超华尔街13.4亿美元的预期；调整后每股收益（EPS）0.25美元，同样大幅超预期。对一家已达百亿营收量级的SaaS公司而言，还能保持70%的增速，在美股市场极为罕见。这份高增长，离不开商业端与政府端的双轮支撑，而商业营收的暴增，核心是Palantir把AIP（AI平台）模式做透了，没有玩虚的。过去，企业级软件销售周期动辄半年、一年，客户决策慢、试错成本高；现在，Palantir搞高密度实战训练营，让客户在几天内就能用自家真实业务数据，看到AI能带来的实际价值——比如降本多少、效率提升多少，不画饼、不吹概念，能直接上测试、看结果。这种“先验证价值、再谈合作”的打法，形成了明显的正向循环：客户看到实效后愿意付费，付费客户的案例又吸引更多企业入局，直接带动美国商业客户数量和客单价双双爆发。Wedbush明星分析师Dan Ives对此评价极高，称其为“AI领域的梅西”，核心就是认可它不玩虚的、实打实做变现的思路。承压的技术面：142倍市盈率但基本面的强势，终究没能掩盖股价的恐慌。截至2026年2月底，Palantir股价已呈现明显的高位破位态势，此前的上涨势头彻底逆转。自2025年底触及历史高点后，其股价已下跌约29%，2026年开年至今更是下挫18%，沦为同期标普500指数中表现最差的成分股之一。更让投资者警惕的是，股价已接连跌穿50日、100日、200日三条关键移动平均线，技术面上彻底进入超卖区间，短期反弹乏力。明明是最能赚钱的AI应用公司，为何股价走出这么难看的走势？核心问题出在估值上——它已经严重透支了未来的增长预期。2024年末，Palantir被正式纳入标普500指数，被动资金大量涌入，一度将其预期市盈率（Forward P/E）推至200倍以上。即便经过近期回调，目前预期市盈率仍高达142倍，远超软件行业平均水平。这个估值水位，让华尔街彻底分裂。德意志银行、晨星等看空机构直言不讳：142倍的市盈率，意味着“容不得任何错误”。对现在的Palantir来说，财报“符合预期”甚至“小幅超预期”都等于不及格；只要下一季度业绩指引稍微保守一点，哪怕偏差1%，等待它的都是更剧烈的估值杀跌。更现实的是，一旦AI行业热度降温，其市盈率向软件行业30-40倍的均值回归，股价的下行空间将难以想象。产业暗礁：赚钱才是硬道理Palantir的困境，不是它一家的问题，而是整个AI应用层在2026年必须面对的现实考验。从宏观环境来看，高利率一直压在高估值成长股身上。现在资金成本越来越高，投资者不再愿意为5年后的“预期收益”买单，而是要看到当下的现金流、实打实的盈利回报——能不能赚钱、能赚多少钱，成了最核心的考核指标。更深层的产业变化的是，算力基建的狂欢已经接近尾声，真正的考验落到了应用端。过去两年，企业为了不被AI浪潮淘汰，盲目跟风采购算力、搭建AI基础设施，哪怕暂时看不到回报也愿意投入；但现在，企业CFO们开始精打细算，每一笔AI软件投入，都要算清楚“能降多少本、增多少效”，ROI（投资回报率）成了硬门槛。Palantir必须持续证明，客户花在AIP平台上的每一分钱，都能带来实实在在的回报，否则增长就难以为继。除此之外，政府合同虽然稳定，却也藏着隐忧。政府预算波动、项目交付周期不确定，再加上地缘政治的影响，让这份“稳定收入”充满变数。对同时依赖商业和政府订单的Palantir来说，相比纯粹的商业SaaS公司，要承受更多非市场因素的冲击，这也进一步增加了其估值的不确定性。不可否认，Palantir是目前AI应用层里，少数能实打实跑通变现路径、基本面强悍的头部公司。但“好公司”不等于“好股票”，尤其是在142倍市盈率的高位，任何微小的利空都会被无限放大。当前的股价回调，或许能砸出短期反弹的机会，但更给长期投资者敲响了警钟。接下来，Palantir全年业绩指引的好坏，将直接决定它的走向——是重新回到上升通道，还是继续向行业平均估值痛苦回归。答案很快就会揭晓。而它的经历，也给所有AI应用公司提了个醒：AI下半场，虚的没用，能赚钱、能持续赚钱，才是活下去、站得稳的核心。（本文首发钛媒体App , 作者｜硅谷Tech news，编辑｜秦聪慧）更多精彩内容，关注钛媒体微信号（ID：taimeiti），或者下载钛媒体App","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":536871579206840,"gmtCreate":1772093852362,"gmtModify":1772093856828,"author":{"id":"3585447621705948","authorId":"3585447621705948","name":"AngHian","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/309f97b1ba05f7ced5f9e87871f280c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585447621705948","authorIdStr":"3585447621705948"},"htmlText":"Then, how about Tesla? Tesla's PE is much more higher than Palantir's.","listText":"Then, how about Tesla? Tesla's PE is much more higher than Palantir's.","text":"Then, how about Tesla? Tesla's PE is much more higher than Palantir's.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/536871579206840","repostId":2614971350,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2614971350","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772091078,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2614971350?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-02-26 15:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Extremely strong performance, stock price breaks: Palantir tore open the cruelest truth of the \"AI application layer\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614971350","media":"钛媒体APP","summary":"截至2026年2月底，Palantir股价已呈现明显的高位破位态势，此前的上涨势头彻底逆转。产业暗礁：赚钱才是硬道理Palantir的困境，不是它一家的问题，而是整个AI应用层在2026年必须面对的现实考验。不可否认，Palantir是目前AI应用层里，少数能实打实跑通变现路径、基本面强悍的头部公司。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OWT1UVUwU7s2djXZNf_UmZrSuLHLsdJbDU3R2pWwbHaCEAA/0\"/>At the beginning of 2026, the differentiation of the global AI capital market has become increasingly dazzling.When<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>When the underlying computing power manufacturers are still making a lot of money relying on AI chips, those in the top camp of the AI application layer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>(PLTR), but fell into the embarrassing contrast of \"brilliant performance and plummeting stock price\".This software company, which started as a mysterious big data service, handed over a nearly perfect financial report, but the secondary market responded with a cold valuation drop. This is not a short-term move in a single star stock:When market funds shift from \"crazy pursuit of computing power infrastructure\" to \"testing application monetization capabilities\", investors' patience with the profit returns of AI applications has come to an end, and any deviation may trigger a chain reaction.The fundamentals of the hurricane: the AIP model runs through the closed loop of monetizationLooking at business data alone, Palantir is in the most stable growth cycle since its establishment. It has long since got rid of the single label of \"relying on defense orders to eat\" and has actually transformed into a giant driven by AI business services.According to the latest financial report data, in the fourth quarter financial report of 2025, Palantir's total revenue in a single quarter reached US $1.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70%, far exceeding Wall Street's expectation of US $1.34 billion; After adjustmentEARNINGS PER(EPS) $0.25, which also significantly exceeded expectations.For a SaaS company with revenue of tens of billions, it can still maintain a growth rate of 70%, which is extremely rare in the US stock market。This high growth is inseparable from the two-wheel support of the commercial side and the government side, and the core of the surge in commercial revenue is that Palantir has thoroughly implemented the AIP (AI Platform) model and has not played virtually.In the past, the sales cycle of enterprise-level software was often half a year or one year, with slow customer decision-making and high trial and error costs; Now, Palantir is engaged in high-density actual combat training camps, allowing customers to use their own real business data within a few days to see the actual value that AI can bring-such as how much cost reduction, how much efficiency improvement, no painting cakes, no bragging concepts, can directly test and see the results.This approach of \"verifying value first, then talking about cooperation\" has formed an obvious positive cycle: customers are willing to pay after seeing the actual results, and the cases of paying customers attract more companies to enter the game, directly driving the number of commercial customers and customers in the United States. The unit price both exploded. Wedbush star analyst Dan Ives spoke highly of this, calling it \"Messi in the field of AI\". The core is to recognize its idea of not playing virtual things and realizing them in a real way.Technical aspects under pressure: 142 times P/EBut the strength of the fundamentals failed to cover up the panic of the stock price after all. As of the end of February 2026, Palantir's stock price has shown an obvious high-level breaking trend, and the previous upward momentum has been completely reversed.Since hitting an all-time high at the end of 2025,Its shares have fallen about 29%, it has fallen by 18% since the beginning of 2026, becoming the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>One of the worst-performing constituents in the index. What makes investors even more alert is that the stock price has successively fallen below the three key moving averages of 50, 100 and 200 days. Technically, it has completely entered the oversold range, and the short-term rebound is weak.It is obviously the most profitable AI application company, why is the stock price out of such an ugly trend? The core problem lies with valuation-it has heavily overdrawn future growth expectations.At the end of 2024, Palantir was officially included in the S&P 500 index, and a large influx of passive funds once pushed its expected P/E (Forward P/E) to more than 200 times. Even after the recent correction, the current expected P/E is still as high as 142 times, far exceeding the average level of the software industry.This valuation level has completely split Wall Street.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>, Morningstar and other bearish institutions are blunt: a P/E of 142 times means that \"no mistakes can be tolerated\".For the current Palantir,The financial report \"in line with expectations\" or even \"slightly exceeding expectations\" is equal to failing； As long as the performance guidance for the next quarter is slightly conservative, even if the deviation is 1%, what awaits it is a more sharp valuation drop. More realistically, once the popularity of the AI industry cools down and its P/E reverts to the mean of 30-40 times of the software industry, the downside of the stock price will be unimaginable.Industrial Reef: Making money is the last wordPalantir's predicament is not a problem for it, but a realistic test that the entire AI application layer must face in 2026.From the perspective of macro environment, highInterest ratesIt has been weighing on high-valuation growth stocks. Now that the cost of capital is getting higher and higher, investors are no longer willing to pay for the \"expected income\" in five years, but want to see the current cash flow and real profit returns-whether they can make money and how much money they can make, which has become the core assessment indicator.The deeper industrial change is that the carnival of computing power infrastructure is coming to an end, and the real test falls on the application side.In the past two years, in order not to be eliminated by the AI wave, companies have blindly followed the trend of purchasing computing power and building AI infrastructure, and are willing to invest even if they do not see a return for the time being; But now, corporate CFOs are beginning to calculate carefully. For every investment in AI software, they must calculate clearly \"how much cost can be reduced, and how much efficiency can be increased\". ROI (return on investment) has become a hard threshold.Palantir must continue to prove that every penny customers spend on the AIP platform can bring tangible returns, otherwise growth will be unsustainable.Besides, although government contracts are stable, they also have hidden worries. Fluctuations in government budgets, uncertain project delivery cycles, and geopolitical influences make this \"stable income\" full of variables. For Palantir, which relies on both commercial and government orders, compared with purely commercial SaaS companies, it has to withstand the impact of more non-market factors, which further increases the uncertainty of its valuation.It is undeniable that Palantir is one of the few leading companies in the current AI application layer that can actually run through the realization path and have strong fundamentals.But \"good company\" does not mean \"good stock\", especially at the high of 142 times P/E, any tiny negative will be infinitely amplified。The current stock price correction may create an opportunity for a short-term rebound, but it has also sounded the alarm for long-term investors. Next, the quality of Palantir's full-year performance guidance will directly determine its direction-to return toAscending channel, or continue to return to the painful industry average valuation.The answer will be revealed soon. And its experience also reminds all AI application companies: in the second half of AI, it is useless to make money, and being able to make money continuously is the core of survival and standing firm.(This article was first published on Titanium Media App, author | Silicon Valley Tech news, editor | Qin Conghui)For more exciting content, follow Titanium Media WeChat ID (ID: taimeiti), or download Titanium Media App</article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Extremely strong performance, stock price breaks: Palantir tore open the cruelest truth of the \"AI application layer\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExtremely strong performance, stock price breaks: Palantir tore open the cruelest truth of the \"AI application layer\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n钛媒体APP2026-02-26 15:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><article><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OWT1UVUwU7s2djXZNf_UmZrSuLHLsdJbDU3R2pWwbHaCEAA/0\"/>At the beginning of 2026, the differentiation of the global AI capital market has become increasingly dazzling.When<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>When the underlying computing power manufacturers are still making a lot of money relying on AI chips, those in the top camp of the AI application layer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>(PLTR), but fell into the embarrassing contrast of \"brilliant performance and plummeting stock price\".This software company, which started as a mysterious big data service, handed over a nearly perfect financial report, but the secondary market responded with a cold valuation drop. This is not a short-term move in a single star stock:When market funds shift from \"crazy pursuit of computing power infrastructure\" to \"testing application monetization capabilities\", investors' patience with the profit returns of AI applications has come to an end, and any deviation may trigger a chain reaction.The fundamentals of the hurricane: the AIP model runs through the closed loop of monetizationLooking at business data alone, Palantir is in the most stable growth cycle since its establishment. It has long since got rid of the single label of \"relying on defense orders to eat\" and has actually transformed into a giant driven by AI business services.According to the latest financial report data, in the fourth quarter financial report of 2025, Palantir's total revenue in a single quarter reached US $1.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70%, far exceeding Wall Street's expectation of US $1.34 billion; After adjustmentEARNINGS PER(EPS) $0.25, which also significantly exceeded expectations.For a SaaS company with revenue of tens of billions, it can still maintain a growth rate of 70%, which is extremely rare in the US stock market。This high growth is inseparable from the two-wheel support of the commercial side and the government side, and the core of the surge in commercial revenue is that Palantir has thoroughly implemented the AIP (AI Platform) model and has not played virtually.In the past, the sales cycle of enterprise-level software was often half a year or one year, with slow customer decision-making and high trial and error costs; Now, Palantir is engaged in high-density actual combat training camps, allowing customers to use their own real business data within a few days to see the actual value that AI can bring-such as how much cost reduction, how much efficiency improvement, no painting cakes, no bragging concepts, can directly test and see the results.This approach of \"verifying value first, then talking about cooperation\" has formed an obvious positive cycle: customers are willing to pay after seeing the actual results, and the cases of paying customers attract more companies to enter the game, directly driving the number of commercial customers and customers in the United States. The unit price both exploded. Wedbush star analyst Dan Ives spoke highly of this, calling it \"Messi in the field of AI\". The core is to recognize its idea of not playing virtual things and realizing them in a real way.Technical aspects under pressure: 142 times P/EBut the strength of the fundamentals failed to cover up the panic of the stock price after all. As of the end of February 2026, Palantir's stock price has shown an obvious high-level breaking trend, and the previous upward momentum has been completely reversed.Since hitting an all-time high at the end of 2025,Its shares have fallen about 29%, it has fallen by 18% since the beginning of 2026, becoming the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>One of the worst-performing constituents in the index. What makes investors even more alert is that the stock price has successively fallen below the three key moving averages of 50, 100 and 200 days. Technically, it has completely entered the oversold range, and the short-term rebound is weak.It is obviously the most profitable AI application company, why is the stock price out of such an ugly trend? The core problem lies with valuation-it has heavily overdrawn future growth expectations.At the end of 2024, Palantir was officially included in the S&P 500 index, and a large influx of passive funds once pushed its expected P/E (Forward P/E) to more than 200 times. Even after the recent correction, the current expected P/E is still as high as 142 times, far exceeding the average level of the software industry.This valuation level has completely split Wall Street.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>, Morningstar and other bearish institutions are blunt: a P/E of 142 times means that \"no mistakes can be tolerated\".For the current Palantir,The financial report \"in line with expectations\" or even \"slightly exceeding expectations\" is equal to failing； As long as the performance guidance for the next quarter is slightly conservative, even if the deviation is 1%, what awaits it is a more sharp valuation drop. More realistically, once the popularity of the AI industry cools down and its P/E reverts to the mean of 30-40 times of the software industry, the downside of the stock price will be unimaginable.Industrial Reef: Making money is the last wordPalantir's predicament is not a problem for it, but a realistic test that the entire AI application layer must face in 2026.From the perspective of macro environment, highInterest ratesIt has been weighing on high-valuation growth stocks. Now that the cost of capital is getting higher and higher, investors are no longer willing to pay for the \"expected income\" in five years, but want to see the current cash flow and real profit returns-whether they can make money and how much money they can make, which has become the core assessment indicator.The deeper industrial change is that the carnival of computing power infrastructure is coming to an end, and the real test falls on the application side.In the past two years, in order not to be eliminated by the AI wave, companies have blindly followed the trend of purchasing computing power and building AI infrastructure, and are willing to invest even if they do not see a return for the time being; But now, corporate CFOs are beginning to calculate carefully. For every investment in AI software, they must calculate clearly \"how much cost can be reduced, and how much efficiency can be increased\". ROI (return on investment) has become a hard threshold.Palantir must continue to prove that every penny customers spend on the AIP platform can bring tangible returns, otherwise growth will be unsustainable.Besides, although government contracts are stable, they also have hidden worries. Fluctuations in government budgets, uncertain project delivery cycles, and geopolitical influences make this \"stable income\" full of variables. For Palantir, which relies on both commercial and government orders, compared with purely commercial SaaS companies, it has to withstand the impact of more non-market factors, which further increases the uncertainty of its valuation.It is undeniable that Palantir is one of the few leading companies in the current AI application layer that can actually run through the realization path and have strong fundamentals.But \"good company\" does not mean \"good stock\", especially at the high of 142 times P/E, any tiny negative will be infinitely amplified。The current stock price correction may create an opportunity for a short-term rebound, but it has also sounded the alarm for long-term investors. Next, the quality of Palantir's full-year performance guidance will directly determine its direction-to return toAscending channel, or continue to return to the painful industry average valuation.The answer will be revealed soon. And its experience also reminds all AI application companies: in the second half of AI, it is useless to make money, and being able to make money continuously is the core of survival and standing firm.(This article was first published on Titanium Media App, author | Silicon Valley Tech news, editor | Qin Conghui)For more exciting content, follow Titanium Media WeChat ID (ID: taimeiti), or download Titanium Media App</article></body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260226153415a7215763&s=b\">钛媒体APP</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLT":"Defiance Leveraged Long Plus Income PLTR ETF","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4613":"AI应用软件","PLTA":"ProShares Ultra PLTR ETF","PLYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST PLTR ETF","PLTD":"1倍做空PLTR ETF-Direxion","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","BK4588":"碎股","PLTG":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","PLTI":"REX PLTR Growth & Income ETF","PTIR":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-GraniteShares","BK4023":"应用软件","PLTU":"2倍做多PLTR ETF-Direxion","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","PLTW":"PLTR周配息ETF-Roundhill","BK4543":"AI","PLTY":"PLTR期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","PLTZ":"2倍做空PLTR ETF-Defiance","PLOO":"2倍上限加速PLTR ETF-Leverage Shares","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260226153415a7215763&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2614971350","content_text":"2026年一开年，全球AI资本市场的分化愈发刺眼。当英伟达等底层算力厂商还在靠着AI芯片赚得盆满钵满时，身处AI应用层头部阵营的Palantir（PLTR），却陷入了“业绩亮眼、股价暴跌”的尴尬反差。这家以神秘大数据服务起家的软件公司，交出了一份近乎完美的财报，二级市场却用一场冷酷的估值杀跌予以回应。这不是单一明星股的短期波动：当市场资金从“疯狂追捧算力基建”转向“考验应用变现能力”，投资者对AI应用的盈利回报耐心已耗至尽头，一丝偏差都可能引发连锁反应。狂飙的基本面：AIP模式跑通变现闭环单看业务数据，Palantir正处于成立以来最稳健的增长周期。它早已摆脱“靠国防订单吃饭”的单一标签，实实在在转型为靠AI商业服务驱动的巨头。最新财报数据显示，2025 年第四季度财报，Palantir单季总营收达14.1亿美元，同比增长70%，远超华尔街13.4亿美元的预期；调整后每股收益（EPS）0.25美元，同样大幅超预期。对一家已达百亿营收量级的SaaS公司而言，还能保持70%的增速，在美股市场极为罕见。这份高增长，离不开商业端与政府端的双轮支撑，而商业营收的暴增，核心是Palantir把AIP（AI平台）模式做透了，没有玩虚的。过去，企业级软件销售周期动辄半年、一年，客户决策慢、试错成本高；现在，Palantir搞高密度实战训练营，让客户在几天内就能用自家真实业务数据，看到AI能带来的实际价值——比如降本多少、效率提升多少，不画饼、不吹概念，能直接上测试、看结果。这种“先验证价值、再谈合作”的打法，形成了明显的正向循环：客户看到实效后愿意付费，付费客户的案例又吸引更多企业入局，直接带动美国商业客户数量和客单价双双爆发。Wedbush明星分析师Dan Ives对此评价极高，称其为“AI领域的梅西”，核心就是认可它不玩虚的、实打实做变现的思路。承压的技术面：142倍市盈率但基本面的强势，终究没能掩盖股价的恐慌。截至2026年2月底，Palantir股价已呈现明显的高位破位态势，此前的上涨势头彻底逆转。自2025年底触及历史高点后，其股价已下跌约29%，2026年开年至今更是下挫18%，沦为同期标普500指数中表现最差的成分股之一。更让投资者警惕的是，股价已接连跌穿50日、100日、200日三条关键移动平均线，技术面上彻底进入超卖区间，短期反弹乏力。明明是最能赚钱的AI应用公司，为何股价走出这么难看的走势？核心问题出在估值上——它已经严重透支了未来的增长预期。2024年末，Palantir被正式纳入标普500指数，被动资金大量涌入，一度将其预期市盈率（Forward P/E）推至200倍以上。即便经过近期回调，目前预期市盈率仍高达142倍，远超软件行业平均水平。这个估值水位，让华尔街彻底分裂。德意志银行、晨星等看空机构直言不讳：142倍的市盈率，意味着“容不得任何错误”。对现在的Palantir来说，财报“符合预期”甚至“小幅超预期”都等于不及格；只要下一季度业绩指引稍微保守一点，哪怕偏差1%，等待它的都是更剧烈的估值杀跌。更现实的是，一旦AI行业热度降温，其市盈率向软件行业30-40倍的均值回归，股价的下行空间将难以想象。产业暗礁：赚钱才是硬道理Palantir的困境，不是它一家的问题，而是整个AI应用层在2026年必须面对的现实考验。从宏观环境来看，高利率一直压在高估值成长股身上。现在资金成本越来越高，投资者不再愿意为5年后的“预期收益”买单，而是要看到当下的现金流、实打实的盈利回报——能不能赚钱、能赚多少钱，成了最核心的考核指标。更深层的产业变化的是，算力基建的狂欢已经接近尾声，真正的考验落到了应用端。过去两年，企业为了不被AI浪潮淘汰，盲目跟风采购算力、搭建AI基础设施，哪怕暂时看不到回报也愿意投入；但现在，企业CFO们开始精打细算，每一笔AI软件投入，都要算清楚“能降多少本、增多少效”，ROI（投资回报率）成了硬门槛。Palantir必须持续证明，客户花在AIP平台上的每一分钱，都能带来实实在在的回报，否则增长就难以为继。除此之外，政府合同虽然稳定，却也藏着隐忧。政府预算波动、项目交付周期不确定，再加上地缘政治的影响，让这份“稳定收入”充满变数。对同时依赖商业和政府订单的Palantir来说，相比纯粹的商业SaaS公司，要承受更多非市场因素的冲击，这也进一步增加了其估值的不确定性。不可否认，Palantir是目前AI应用层里，少数能实打实跑通变现路径、基本面强悍的头部公司。但“好公司”不等于“好股票”，尤其是在142倍市盈率的高位，任何微小的利空都会被无限放大。当前的股价回调，或许能砸出短期反弹的机会，但更给长期投资者敲响了警钟。接下来，Palantir全年业绩指引的好坏，将直接决定它的走向——是重新回到上升通道，还是继续向行业平均估值痛苦回归。答案很快就会揭晓。而它的经历，也给所有AI应用公司提了个醒：AI下半场，虚的没用，能赚钱、能持续赚钱，才是活下去、站得稳的核心。（本文首发钛媒体App , 作者｜硅谷Tech news，编辑｜秦聪慧）更多精彩内容，关注钛媒体微信号（ID：taimeiti），或者下载钛媒体App","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLT":0.6,"PLOO":0.6,"PTIR":0.6,"PLTI":0.6,"PLTG":0.6,"PLTU":0.6,"PLTY":0.6,"PLTA":0.6,"PLTR":1.96,"PLTD":0.6,"PLTW":0.6,"PLTZ":0.6,"PLYY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}