The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0824 GMT - Yields on U.K. 10-year government bonds climb to a 6.5-month high amid inflation concerns as Brent crude oil futures rose 6.4% to $114.30 a barrel. The Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates on hold at 3.75% in a decision at 1200 GMT. However, investors are pricing in the risk of the U.K. central bank raising rates in the coming months due to fears that high energy costs will push up inflation. Ten-year gilt yields jumped to 4.835%, the highest level since September 2025, and last trade at 4.809%, up 6 basis points on the day, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0823 GMT - The Bank of Japan's inflation risk signaling appears much stronger than the Federal Reserve's statement, says Naomi Fink of Amova Asset Management in commentary. While both included an explicit reference to geopolitical risks, the Japanese central bank specifically flagged upward pressure on the consumer-price index due to the rise in crude oil prices, she notes. The BOJ also highlighted rising inflation expectations in addition to CPI likely being at a generally consistent level with the price-stability target. She reckons the BOJ's policy stance has tightened due to inputs rather than a shift in its guidance. Fink says the BOJ statement supports her view that without a policy adjustment, the central bank risks falling behind the curve, but stops short of signaling a heightened pace of increases as yet. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0818 GMT - The euro trades steady against the dollar ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision where rates are expected to stay on hold. If ECB President Christine Lagarde is "particularly hawkish," hinting at possible rate increases if higher energy-price feed through into inflation, this could temporarily calm the euro's recent decline, says Danske Bank's Filip Andersson says in a note. However, Danske still favors selling the euro versus the dollar and holds a tactical short position, targeting a fall to $1.12, the co-head of fixed income and FX research says. The euro last trades at $1.1448. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0815 GMT - The Bank of Japan remains on track for an additional rate hike if uncertainties over the Iran conflict subside. Gov. Kazuo Ueda said at a news conference that domestic data released before the escalation in the Middle East have shown firmness in both the corporate and household sectors. The yen recovered some ground against the dollar following his remarks. The yen was recently trading at 159.10 per dollar, compared with around 159.70 immediately after the central bank's decision to keep interest rates steady. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0812 GMT - The Swiss National Bank announces a decision at 0830 GMT, where focus will center on comments regarding potential intervention in the Swiss franc, given the currency's recent strength, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. The SNB is expected to hold rates at 0% amid uncertainty over the Middle East war. "[We] strongly assume that the SNB is currently more concerned about the strong franc than about potential inflation risks," Pfister says. Questions on Thursday will revolve around "whether the SNB will intervene more heavily in the foreign-exchange market in the coming months." However, the SNB could refrain from "clear statements," he says. The euro last trades at 0.9070 francs, having hit a multiyear low of 0.8979 francs on March 9. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)
0810 GMT - U.K. jobs market data signals that the market is stabilizing, Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja says in a note. However, high energy prices due to the Middle East war could stall any labor market recovery, Raja says. "Hiring plans may get shelved," he says. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.2% in the three months to January, in line with the consensus forecast by economists in a WSJ poll. Average wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed to 3.8% in the three months to January from 4.2% in the three months to December. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0807 GMT - The South Korean won hit a 17-year low against the U.S. dollar as an escalating Iran conflict fuels risk-off sentiment and boosts demand for safe-haven assets. The greenback settles at 1,501.00 won in Seoul onshore trading, the strongest level since March 2009, after closing at 1,483.10 in the previous session. Concerns over energy supply disruptions weigh heavily on investor confidence after Israel and Iran traded air strikes on energy oil and gas facilities. "Risk aversion spreads as tensions in the Middle East escalate again," Woori Bank economists say in a note. Woori expects the currency pair to trade between 1,500 and 1,513. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)
0803 GMT - The Bank of Japan has signaled its willingness to hike rates again soon, says Capital Economics' Marcel Thieliant in a note. A slim majority of the board members reckon the Middle East conflict will, on balance, strengthen inflationary pressures in Japan. Gov. Kazuo Ueda noted that higher energy prices could lift inflation expectations and pose a headwind to activity by worsening the terms of trade. The trade-weighted exchange rate has also fallen to new lows in recent weeks, adding more pressure on goods inflation, he says. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0800 GMT - As geopolitical uncertainties have made it difficult for policymakers and economists to predict the inflation outlook, the Bank of Japan is planning to release new indicators to help them understand core price trends. Gov. Kazuo Ueda says the central bank will release price data that strips out temporary factors--such as the impact of government subsidies--before the summer. However, Ueda says there is "no intention to move policy in either direction immediately" based solely on such data. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0758 GMT - Malaysia's export growth is expected to remain supported by key products, despite moderation in February, with electrical and electronics demand driven by AI, 5G and electric vehicles components, Kenanga economists say in a note. Global semiconductor sales are expected to stay strong, supporting Malaysia's semiconductor ecosystem, while higher crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices may support the domestic mining sector, they say. Exports are projected to grow 5.1% in 2026, easing from 6.4% in 2025. Risks include external shocks like U.S. trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and supply-chain disruptions, they flag. GDP growth is forecasted at 4.5% this year, supported by domestic demand, though heightened external risks may weigh on the outlook. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0752 GMT - Gold prices plunge below $4,800 a troy ounce, pressured by a stronger dollar and dimming hopes for further interest-rate cuts in the near term. In early European trading, futures fall 2.9% to $4,755 an ounce, while the U.S. dollar index is up 0.1% to 100.18, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, as widely expected, but highlighted the risks that higher energy prices will lift inflation. "The rally in oil followed renewed escalation in the Middle East, with markets increasingly pricing the risk of disruptions to energy supplies and shipping routes," ING analysts say. "While geopolitical tensions typically support safe-haven demand, the inflationary impact of higher energy costs is weighing on gold." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0749 GMT - The Swedish krona is expected to be driven by Middle East developments and oil price moves and is unlikely to react much to a Riksbank decision at 0830 GMT, Danske Bank analysts say in a note. Sweden's central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 1.75%, pursuing a strategy of waiting to see how the Middle East war unfolds, they say. The Riksbank will present new forecasts amid the current uncertainty, where it will likely provide alternative scenarios, the analysts say. "A wait-and-see approach will not rock the boat for the Swedish krona in an environment where macro factors are taking the backseat and geopolitical developments set the scene." The euro is last down 0.1% at 10.7783 kronor. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 19, 2026 04:24 ET (08:24 GMT)
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