The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0953 ET - Weakness in the U.K. labor market makes the current energy shock different from that seen in 2022, says Jessica Hinds at Fitch Ratings in a note. Persistently-high unemployment is likely to keep a lid on inflation and allow the Bank of England to ease its key rate towards 3%, Hinds says. "On the assumption that the oil price spike is relatively short lived, we would continue to think that the next move will be a cut, not a hike," she says. The central bank kept rates unchanged on Thursday. It indicated that a prolonged shock could prompt more restrictive policy, but that a weaker economy could warrant cuts. "Nevertheless, the risk to our view is that the uncertainty will encourage policymakers to be more cautious in their approach to loosening policy," Hinds says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0935 ET - Natural gas futures surge 4.8%, lifted by damage seen to a major gas field in Qatar. Iranian missile attacks hitting the Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar "fundamentally alters the global gas market outlook," says Wood Mackenzie in a note. Analysts now see the timeline extending for the facilities to recover. "Market expectations had been for a short disruption, with a controlled restart restoring supply to pre-conflict levels by mid-2026," says analyst Kristy Kramer in a note. "That outlook now appears increasingly unlikely." Iran has threatened additional attacks on other facilities in surrounding countries. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0921 ET - State-owned QatarEnergy says Iranian missile strikes caused "extensive further damage" on the Ras Laffan complex in Qatar, home to the world's largest liquefied-natural-gas export facility. The attack followed another Iranian strike at the site on Wednesday that also inflicted significant damage. The attacks are pushing up crude oil futures, with Brent crude up 5.4% to $113.34 a barrel. "Oil markets, already at $110 per barrel, would likely breach $120 in the immediate aftermath, with further upside depending on the severity of the damage sustained," says Rystad Energy in a note. WTI crude is up 1.3% to $96.74 a barrel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0917 ET - The Bank of England's minutes suggests the Monetary Policy Committee is "very alive" to the risks stemming from the Middle East crisis, Franklin Templeton Institute's Michael Browne says in a note. "While that may no be enough for the market today, investors should be re-assured that they will act, even though a rate rise would be bad news for the economy," the global investment strategist says. Bond markets are nervous and need reassurance that monetary authorities are on top of their brief and prepared to raise interest rates sooner rather than later, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0913 ET - Money markets raise their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months after the central bank unanimously kept rates unchanged given the surge in energy prices. The U.K. is particularly vulnerable to the surge in global oil prices "given the liberalisation of U.K. energy markets, the push away from domestic oil production and a limited storage capacity", Ebury's Matthew Ryan says in a note. Markets fully price in the possibility of two 25 basis-point rate rises in 2026, up from a 50% chance of one rate increase priced in on Wednesday, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0902 ET - The evolution of the Middle East war is likely to have a big influence on the Bank of England's interest-rate decisions in the coming months, Moneyfarm's Richard Flax says in a note. The BOE on Thursday voted to keep rates on hold at 3.75% in a unanimous decision. Rising tensions in the Middle East are driving up energy costs, raising the risk of high global inflation. "If the current pressures persist, expectations for rate cuts will continue to be pushed back," Flax says. Markets price in a 55% chance of a BOE rate rise in April, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0854 ET - Switzerland's central bank might consider allowing the Swiss franc to appreciate further in the near-term, as this would help to cool price pressures amid rising energy prices, Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Ankita Amajuri says. The Swiss National Bank held its key rate at 0% for a third consecutive quarterly meeting on Thursday, and reiterated its message earlier this month that it's willing to intervene in foreign-exchange markets to limit a rapid appreciation of the franc. "As such, we expect the Bank to leave rates unchanged throughout 2026," Amajuri says in a note. The next SNB move is most likely a rate hike in early 2027, when inflation comes closer to the middle of its 0%-2% target band, she says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0852 ET - The Bank of England preferred to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday after investors rapidly shifted from pricing in a gradual easing of rates this year to a potential rate hike, says KPMG U.K. chief economist Yael Selfin. Key for the central bank will be the extent of second-round effects from the energy shock and how much that could risk reigniting inflationary pressures, she says in a note. "For that reason, the bank is likely to discount softer signals from the labor market and the wider economy, placing greater weight on underlying price indicators in the coming months." However, despite the BOE's tone, a rate cut remains possible later this year once the energy shock impact begins to ease and inflation falls as expected, Selfin says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0850 ET - Confidence among small businesses in Canada has taken a hit, as worries about higher fuel costs and supply chains build. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business's monthly barometer shows a sharp 9.5 points drop in the March longterm business confidence index to 55.8 points, following gradual improvement over much of the past year. Short-term optimism also deteriorated significantly. The share of business worried about fuel costs jumps to 50% this month from 36% in February. As well, CFIB says 57% of small businesses report challenges with insufficient demand, up from 50%. Still, staffing plans are steady, with 17% of firms looking to hire and 12% planning to lay off staff, a third straight month of positive net staffing intentions. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
0840 ET - Bank of England policymakers should be careful not to overcorrect for past mistakes by raising rates too fast, ICAEW's Suren Thiru says in a note. The BOE held rates in a unanimous vote in the aftermath of soaring energy prices prompted by the Middle East conflict. Though the BOE will want to avoid a repeat of 2022 when it raised rates too late, this time policy is more restrictive and inflation is lower, leaving rate-setters favorably positioned to cope with this crisis, he says. "While another interest-rate cut remains possible if the Iran war ends quickly, with skyrocketing oil-and-gas prices locking in an imminent inflation spike, the chances of further policy loosening this year is rapidly receding," Thiru says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0837 ET - The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee's 9-0 unanimous vote in favor of holding the bank rate was "the most credible outcome possible" given the current extremely difficult backdrop, Peel Hunt's Kallum Pickering says in a note. This voting reflects an honest appraisal of the situation the BOE faces, with energy prices spiking due to the Middle East war, the chief economist says. "While rate-setters may still privately believe that the next rate move is more likely to be down than up, given the uncertainty over the Iran war timeline, advocating for such a move would have been unwise," he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0827 ET - Yields on U.K. 10-year gilt yields extend an earlier rise, hitting a 14-month high of 4.881% after the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold in a unanimous vote. The continuing war in the Middle East is causing investors to price in the risk of prolonged energy supply shock and elevated inflation risk. Rate increases could be a possibility in the coming months if the war continues. "Given the Iran conflict, it is no surprise that the BOE decided to keep policy on hold today," Aberdeen's Luke Bartholomew says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields are up 12.5 basis points on the day to last trade at 4.876%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 19, 2026 09:53 ET (13:53 GMT)
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