The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1230 ET - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde didn't appear very decisive in combating the inflation risks stemming from the Middle East war, according to Commerzbank economist Joerg Kraemer. "I am not convinced by the expectations of the futures markets that the ECB will raise its key interest rates as early as June," he says. The hurdle for higher interest rates is higher than anticipated, he says. Kraemer notes that the ECB's commentary following the decision didn't contain a clear statement that it will take decisive action against recently-increased inflation risks. The ECB also still expects an inflation rate of 2.0% again in 2026, and the governing council is dominated by those who prefer looser monetary policy, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1225 ET - Money markets are pricing in the possibility of the Bank of England raising interest rates in the coming months, but any such move is likely to be moderate, MUFG's Henry Cook and Lee Hardman say in a note. Any monetary tightening by the BOE is likely to be modest given "the higher starting point for interest rates, relatively soft domestic demand, and the absence of the Covid-related supply disruptions that amplified the 2022 energy shock," they say. Markets are pricing in the possibility of two 25 basis-point rate rises by September, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1210 ET - U.S. natural gas stored in the U.S. rose by 35 billion cubic feet for the week ended March 13, according to the EIA. That brings total storage to 1,883 bcf, up 10% from the same time last year and nearly 3% higher than the five-year average. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast storage this week to rise by 26 bcf. Natural gas futures are up 5.3% to $3.228 per mmBtu in today's trading, due to Iranian strikes on natural gas infrastructure in surrounding countries. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1205 ET - Money markets expectations of the Bank of England raising interest rates in the coming months look overstretched, Manulife Investment Management's Erica Camilleri says in a note. Markets raised their expectations of BOE rate rises after Thursday's rate decision when the U.K. central bank expressed concerns about the risk of inflation amid rising energy prices. A 38% chance of a 25 basis-point BOE rate rise is priced in April and markets fully price in the possibility of a rate increase in July, LSEG data show. "The Ofgem price cap will limit impacts on April to June utility bills, but if energy price conditions persist, it will flow through to July bills," Camilleri says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1205 ET - Oil prices trim earlier gains after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. might lift sanctions from Iranian oil at sea and release more oil from its strategic reserves to help tamp down prices. Brent crude is up 3.3% to $110.90 a barrel, while WTI rises 4.6% to $96.70 a barrel. Both benchmarks had surged earlier in the session, with Brent briefly touching $119 a barrel, as Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure heightened concerns over prolonged and deeper supply disruptions. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1136 ET - ECB President Christine Lagarde says the ECB's baseline assumes that market expectations for interest rates are correct. This is effectively talking the bank into two rate hikes this year, given that the new projections show inflation above 2% through the forecast horizon, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen says in a note. It's surprising that Lagarde would underwrite market expectations so explicitly, he says. "Overall, this was a strange mic drop at the end of a press conference in which Ms. Lagarde had otherwise emphasized the balanced risks facing the ECB, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth." (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1123 ET - The Bank of England appears more inclined to interest-rate rises than rate cuts following Thursday's rate decision, Capital Economics' Paul Dales says in a note. The U.K. central bank voted unanimously to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% and expressed unease about the surge in energy prices. "The BOE suggested it is more concerned about the upsides to inflation from the leap in energy prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East than the downsides to activity," Dales says. Money markets price in a 36% chance of a 25 basis-point BOE rate rise in April and fully price in a rate increase in June, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1109 ET - CBOT corn futures are up 0.8%, leading the row crop complex higher as natural gas futures surge. Fertilizer is the key concern among traders, with corn the most exposed to higher fertilizer costs because it's a nutrient-intensive crop. Analytics provider DTN says urea and anhydrous ammonia prices jumped by 12% and 7%, respectively, from this time last month, as energy-producing infrastructure in the Middle East comes under attack. Natural gas is essential for producing nitrogen-based fertilizers. Soybeans are getting less support, because they generally use less fertilizer than corn, says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1041 ET - The Eurpopean Central Bank is likely to hike rates at least once by the end of this year, while the pace and timing of these hikes will hinge on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East, Aberdeen Investments' Felix Feather says in a note. The ECB's emphasis on upside risks to the inflation outlook and a 0.7 percentage-point upward revision to 2026 base-case inflation forecasts "hint at the bank's concern over renewed inflationary pressure, and its willingness to respond with hikes," the economist says. The focus at Thursday's ECB decision, where it kept rates on hold as expected, was always going to be more about its signal for how it might react in future, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
1040 ET - There seems to be a hands-off mentality among traders in CME live cattle futures, with that most-active contract down 0.7%. "Open interest has been going down," says ADM Investor Services in a note. "There is too much uncertainty of outside markets from the war in Iran, higher energy prices, the strike at JBS and Friday's Cattle on Feed report." Analysts surveyed by WSJ forecast total fed cattle inventories down 0.8 percentage points versus this time last year. New placements are expected to slide 1 point, and marketings are seen dropping nearly 8 points. Lean hogs are also down 0.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1022 ET - The ECB faced criticism in 2022 for acting too slowly amid of rising inflation, a mistake it won't be in a hurry to repeat, says Joe Nellis at MHA. The central bank voted to hold interest rates Thursday. But with energy prices soaring, a hike could yet be in store. "A return to monetary tightening would be unwelcome for an already fragile eurozone economy." The IMF already lowered it outlook for the bloc, which would likely fall even lower if rates are raised, Nellis says. But snowballing energy prices could force the bank's hand. "Aware that they faced criticism in 2021-22 for not acting quickly enough to calm what they saw as 'transitory' inflationary pressures, policymakers at the ECB will not risk acting too slowly this time," Nellis says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1003 ET - The ECB's statement alongside its decision to hold rates suggests that policymakers think that the inflationary effects of higher energy prices will outweigh the disinflationary effects of weaker economic growth, Capital Economics' Jack Allen-Reynolds says. Should energy prices keep rising, the balance of opinion could shift towards getting on the front foot by hiking in of April, and perhaps by as much as 50 basis points, he says in a note. If oil and natural-gas prices remain close to their current levels, headline inflation could rise above 3% by April and above 4% in the summer, Allen-Reynolds notes. "We doubt that the ECB would 'look through' a shock that size," he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 19, 2026 12:30 ET (16:30 GMT)
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