By Joyu Wang
TAIPEI -- The U.S. intelligence community has dialed back the view of the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by next year and concluded that Beijing would prefer to take control of the self-ruled island without resorting to force.
The finding is a shift from past U.S. warnings that an invasion could happen by 2027. That looming deadline fueled a sense of urgency in Washington and Taipei and prompted both to sharpen their strategy and invest in their arsenals.
"Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification," said the annual threat assessment.
The conclusion aligns with what has been a conciliatory tone from the Trump administration toward Beijing and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The Pentagon said in its national defense strategy issued in January that its overarching goal was to establish "strategic stability" in the Indo-Pacific region and de-escalate tensions with the Chinese military.
The intelligence report, a summary of national security risks released Wednesday by the Director of National Intelligence, did note areas in which Beijing is seen as a threat.
China, among other nations including Russia and North Korea, is developing new, advanced ways to strike the U.S. with missiles, including those armed with nuclear weapons, the report said. China represents the "most active and persistent" cyber threat to the U.S., the "most capable competitor" in artificial intelligence, and has surpassed Russia as the top competitor in space, it said.
China's military is also continuing to develop plans and capabilities to absorb Taiwan by force if directed to do so, and has made "steady but uneven progress" on those capabilities, the report said.
But it suggested that Beijing views an amphibious assault on Taiwan as risky and likely to fail, particularly if the U.S. intervenes.
China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory and has vowed to absorb the island, by force if necessary. Taipei has pushed back against these claims, asserting its sovereignty without declaring independence, which would be a red line for Beijing.
Beijing sees absorbing Taiwan as a requirement by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China, according to the intelligence report.
Taiwan considers the threat from China an enduring concern. "We won't slow down our efforts [to toughen up our defense] just because a report suggests China has appeared to slow down its military preparations against Taiwan," Liang Wen-chieh, deputy minister of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, said Thursday. Taiwan's military always prepares for the worst when it comes to its military buildup and combat readiness, he said.
In Taipei's view, purges in China's military leadership and performance issues with Chinese weapons have "led China to quietly postpone Xi Jinping's original claim that it would be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027," a Taiwanese security official said.
China's Foreign Ministry, in response to questions about the report, said Taiwan was an internal matter, China is committed to peace and the U.S. should stop boosting the idea that China represents a threat.
The White House has sought to lower tensions over Taiwan as President Trump prepares for a summit with Xi that was originally scheduled for April 1 in Beijing. Trump asked this week to push back the meeting because of the Iran war.
Trump has said that he received assurances from Xi that China wouldn't attack Taiwan while Trump remains president, among a number of statements suggesting that his good relations with the Chinese leader have lessened the China threat.
The U.S. intelligence assessment cited a trade agreement reached by the two leaders last year as an example of how competing powers "sometimes have common or overlapping interests where they can cooperate for mutual benefit."
In another example of a more conciliatory tone, the assessment leaned toward Beijing's view of a comment made last year by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that Japan could be drawn into conflict if China tried to seize Taiwan.
Beijing has described the comment as an escalation and responded with economic pressure and diplomatic vitriol.
The U.S. report said Takaichi's comments "represent a significant shift for a sitting Japanese prime minister," a statement closer to Beijing's view than that of the vital U.S. security ally, as the Japanese leader arrived in Washington to meet with Trump on Thursday.
The Japanese government disputed the intelligence assessment after it was issued on Wednesday, saying that Takaichi's comments didn't represent a shift.
Write to Joyu Wang at joyu.wang@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 19, 2026 08:06 ET (12:06 GMT)
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