Polymarket Users Dial Back Bets on Quick End to Iran War -- WSJ

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Polymarket Users Dial Back Bets on Quick End to Iran War -- WSJ

Dow Jones03-19 18:45

By Alexander Osipovich

Bettors on Polymarket see only a 5% chance that the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran will end by March 31, a sharp drop from the early days of the conflict.

President Trump had earlier projected that the U.S. operation in the Middle East would last four to five weeks.

Users of the crypto-based prediction market now see a 35% probability that the war ends by April 30 and a 69% probability that it ends by June 30, Polymarket data shows.

Polymarket's contract on the war ending by March 31 has drawn about $2 million in trading volume, while those with later expiration dates are more thinly traded.

This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 19, 2026 06:45 ET (10:45 GMT)

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