MARKET SNAPSHOT
U.S. stocks ended lower, but well above their worst levels of the session, after President Trump said he wouldn't "put troops anywhere" when asked about moving forces toward Iran. Treasury yields rose as traders responded to Middle East developments and inferred a hawkish reading from Wednesday's Fed meeting. Brent oil futures pared gains, while WTI fell. Gold and silver fell, and the U.S. dollar weakened.
MARKET WRAPS
EQUITIES
U.S. stocks fell for a second straight day on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dimmed hopes of an interest-rate cut this year on Wednesday.
The Dow industrials fell 0.4%, the S&P 500 lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.3%.
The European Central Bank and its counterparts in the U.K., Switzerland and Japan followed the Fed in holding interest rates steady Thursday, but policymakers signaled they're prepared to hike rates if the conflict drags on.
Asian equities fell amid fading expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and weaker risk sentiment.
South Korea's Kospi was 2.7% lower. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average ended 3.4% lower after the BOJ held steady as widely expected. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declined 2%.
In China, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.4%. The Shenzhen Composite lost 2.3%, while the ChiNext Price Index ended 1.1% lower.
Shares in major airlines in the region declined. Air China and China Eastern Airlines fell 4.75% and 5.5%, respectively, in Hong Kong. Cathay Pacific declined 1.2%.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Benchmark Index fell 1.7%. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 Index dropped 2%.
COMMODITIES
Brent crude oil prices settled up 1.2% to $108.65 a barrel after another volatile session.
"Brent is likely to exceed its 2008 all time high if depressed flows keep the market focused on the risk of lengthier disruptions," said Goldman Sachs. The firm based its assessment in the note on comparing the price movements of other oil supply disruptions in the past 50+ years.
After starting the day higher, front-month WTI crude settled down 0.2% to $96.14 a barrel.
Front-month silver futures have now settled lower for seven consecutive sessions, with the contract finishing the day down 8.2% to $70.902 a troy ounce. Silver is off more than 20% in that time, weighed down by an anticipated impact to industrial demand from the surge in petroleum fuel costs from the war in Iran. It's the longest losing streak for silver since December 2023.
Gold finished lower by 5.9% to $4,600.70/oz, making it six out of the past seven sessions that gold has settled lower. Gold fell 8% in the past two sessions alone.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Iran War Scrambles Calculus for Central Banks
Europe's top central bankers warned that the escalating war in the Middle East would drive up inflation and knock growth.
The conflict is threatening the global economy, but Europe is seen as particularly vulnerable because of its dependence on imported energy. European-natural gas prices have nearly doubled since the conflict began.
"The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth," ECB President Christine Lagarde said Thursday.
'It's a Nightmare': Rapid Battlefield Shifts Leave Markets Trading Blind
Global energy markets now hinge on a volatile new variable: battle damage assessments.
Oil and natural-gas prices surged Thursday after a sweeping escalation in the Persian Gulf. Iranian strikes on critical energy infrastructure have traders racing to determine exactly what was hit, the extent of the damage and how long facilities will be offline.
These attacks present a new reality for energy markets, already suffocating under the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike stalled tankers, which can sail the moment the strait reopens, impaired infrastructure takes months to rebuild and forced shutdowns can permanently destroy capacity.
U.S. Leading Indicators Forecast Further Slowdown
The U.S. economy is expected to slow further amid continued headwinds, while conflict in the Middle East further clouds the growth outlook, according to a basket of monthly economic indicators.
The Leading Economic Index, or LEI, published Thursday by research group The Conference Board, inched down by 0.1% to 97.5, after a 0.2% decline in December.
"The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as consumer expectations retreated again and building permits softened," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager at The Conference Board.
Big Banks Score Win Under New Plan to Loosen Capital Rules
America's biggest banks would be allowed to hold billions of dollars less in capital on their books under proposals unveiled Thursday, easing rules put in place after the 2008 financial crisis that were meant to help shield against meltdowns.
The proposals introduced by the Federal Reserve and other regulators would hand a major victory to big banks, which had resisted sharply higher requirements proposed under the Biden administration. Wall Street's embrace of a second Trump administration had largely centered on the prospect that plans for those stricter requirements would be scrapped.
"An important benefit of these proposals is that they would reduce incentives for traditional lending activities-like mortgage origination, mortgage servicing, and lending to businesses-to migrate outside of the regulated banking sector," said Michelle Bowman, whom President Trump appointed as Federal Reserve vice chair for supervision.
WTO Sees Trade and Growth Slowing More Sharply if Middle East Conflict Persists
World trade flows and economic growth are set to slow more sharply than previously expected if the rise in energy prices and disruptions to transport caused by the Middle East conflict are long-lasting, although the surge in AI-enabling investment could yet help cushion that blow, the World Trade Organization said Thursday.
The late-February attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, and its response, have led to disruptions to energy production and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. There are few signs of the conflict ending, with Israel attacking Iran's South Pars gas field Wednesday, and Iran retaliating by striking a major gas hub in Qatar.
Should those disruptions persist and prices of both crude oil and Liquefied Natural Gas remain high throughout 2026, the WTO said goods trade flows this year would grow by just 1.4%, a weaker outcome than the 1.9% increase that was expected before the attacks on Iran.
FedEx Posts Higher Sales, Boosts Outlook
FedEx raised its outlook for the full year as revenue and package yields increased in the fiscal third quarter.
The shipping company on Thursday posted a profit of $1.06 billion, or $4.41 a share, in the quarter ended Feb. 28, compared with $909 million, or $3.76 a share, a year earlier.
Stripping out certain one-time items, adjusted per-share earnings were $5.25, ahead of the $4.15 anticipated by analysts, according to FactSet.
Jeff Bezos in Talks to Raise $100 Billion for AI Manufacturing Fund
Jeff Bezos is in early talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would buy up manufacturing companies and seek to use AI technology to accelerate their path to automation.
The Amazon.com founder is meeting with some of the world's largest asset managers to raise funding for the project. A few months ago, he traveled to the Middle East to discuss the new fund with sovereign wealth representatives in the region. More recently, he went to Singapore to raise funding for the effort as well, according to people familiar with the matter.
The fund, described in investor documents as a "manufacturing transformation vehicle," is aiming to buy companies in major industrial sectors such as chipmaking, defense and aerospace. It would dwarf the size of some of the world's largest buyout funds and rival SoftBank's $100 billion, tech-focused Vision Fund.
Kalshi Cinches $22 Billion Valuation in Ongoing Round
Investment firm Coatue Management is leading a new funding round for prediction-market operator Kalshi at a $22 billion valuation, according to people familiar with the situation.
Kalshi is raising about $1 billion in the new financing, the people said. The deal will double the startup's valuation in just a few months.
The company's representative declined to comment on the funding.
Uber to Invest Up to $1.25 Billion in Rivian Robotaxis
Rivian Automotive is jumping into the autonomous taxi race-with up to $1.25 billion in help from Uber.
The ride-hailing giant and the electric-vehicle startup announced a partnership Thursday to deploy 10,000 fully autonomous versions of the new Rivian R2 SUV by 2028, starting in San Francisco and Miami. Thousands more of the vehicles could come to as many as 25 cities in the U.S., Canada and Europe by the end of 2031.
Uber will invest up to $1.25 billion in the project if Rivian wins regulatory approval and meets milestones along the way, the companies said. The R2 robotaxis will be exclusively available through Uber's app, the companies said.
Expected Major Events for Friday
02:00/NZ: Feb Credit card statistics
07:00/MAL: Mar International Reserves, middle of month
07:30/THA: Weekly International Reserves
08:00/TAI: Feb Export Orders
08:30/HK: Feb CPI
08:30/HK: 4Q Balance of Payments
09:59/CHN: Feb FDI Foreign Direct Investment
09:59/CHN: People's Bank of China loan prime rate (LPR) announcement
00:00/SKA: Mar Trade data - 1st 20 days of month
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March 19, 2026 16:58 ET (20:58 GMT)
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