UBS Raises Oil Price Forecast as Middle East Conflict Escalates -- Market Talk

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UBS Raises Oil Price Forecast as Middle East Conflict Escalates -- Market Talk

Dow Jones03-20 23:19

1519 GMT - UBS raised its oil price forecasts, citing the escalating conflict in the Middle East and prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank assumes the conflict will persist for another two to three weeks into early April, with transit through the key chokepoint remaining severely constrained, potentially pushing prices briefly above $120 a barrel. UBS now expects Brent crude to average $100 a barrel in the second quarter and WTI $95 a barrel, up from previous forecasts of $74 and $70, respectively. It also lifted its full-year outlook, seeing Brent at $86 a barrel and WTI at $81, compared with prior estimates of $72 and $68. "The extent and duration of disruption of flows via Hormuz remain key, while attacks on oil infrastructure would raise the risk of a slower production recovery," analysts at UBS say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 20, 2026 11:19 ET (15:19 GMT)

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UBS now expects Brent crude to average $100 a barrel in the second quarter and WTI $95 a barrel, up from previous forecasts of $74 and $70, respectively. It also lifted its full-year outlook, seeing Brent at $86 a barrel and WTI at $81, compared with prior estimates of $72 and $68. \"The extent and duration of disruption of flows via Hormuz remain key, while attacks on oil infrastructure would raise the risk of a slower production recovery,\" analysts at UBS say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre style=\"white-space: pre\">\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  March 20, 2026 11:19 ET (15:19 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UBS Raises Oil Price Forecast as Middle East Conflict Escalates -- Market Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUBS Raises Oil Price Forecast as Middle East Conflict Escalates -- Market Talk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-20 23:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     1519 GMT - UBS raised its oil price forecasts, citing the escalating conflict in the Middle East and prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. 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","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"随着中东冲突升级，瑞银上调油价预测——市场讨论","themeId":"8603dabb40994e59ac78c04c930c0d49","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"1519 GMT - UBS raised its oil price forecasts, citing the escalating conflict in the Middle East and prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank assumes the conflict will persist for another two to three weeks into early April, with transit through the key chokepoint remaining severely constrained, potentially pushing prices briefly above $120 a barrel. UBS now expects Brent crude to average $100 a barrel in the second quarter and WTI $95 a barrel, up from previous forecasts of $74 and $70, respectively. 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